1/11/05 Pomeroy RPI Numbers

As noted in last night’s scoreboard thread, the RPI and SOS needs some help and quickly. Thank goodness we only play Tulane once.

Conference USA
RPI rank 9, SOS rank 17; last week: RPI rank 9, SOS rank 16
Non conference record 104-57 vs. Division I; last week 103-56 vs. Division I

RPI 26, SOS 151 - Cincinnati, 13-1, 2-0, last week: RPI 30, SOS 155
RPI 38, SOS 147 - Marquette, 12-1, 1-0, last week: RPI 37, SOS 134
RPI 40, SOS 29 - DePaul, 9-4, 1-1, last week: RPI 39, SOS 45
RPI 47 SOS 128 – Alabama Birmingham, 12-3, 2-0, last week: RPI 64, SOS 167
RPI 49, SOS 27 - Houston, 9-6, 1-1, last week: RPI 63, SOS 79
RPI 58, SOS 82 - Louisville, 10-3, 1-1, last week: RPI 47, SOS 96
RPI 66, SOS 71 - Texas Christian, 9-5, 0-1, last week: RPI 61, SOS 70
RPI 128, SOS 284 - Charlotte, 10-2, 1-0, last week: RPI 106, SOS 253
RPI 161, SOS 112 - Memphis, 8-7, 1-0, last week: RPI 168, SOS 139
RPI 170, RPI 222 - South Florida, 7-5, 1-1, last week: RPI 173, RPI 264
RPI 189, SOS 45 - East Carolina, 3-9, 0-2, last week: RPI 153, SOS 31
RPI 220, SOS 310 - Southern Mississippi, 6-5, 0-2, last week: RPI 247, SOS 326
RPI 257, SOS 101 - Saint Louis, 3-11, 1-1, last week: RPI 277, SOS 126
RPI 310, SOS 324 - Tulane, 5-7, 0-2, last week: RPI 307, SOS 323

49ers Non-conference Opponents
RPI 283, SOS 133 - Long Beach State, 2-11, 0-4, last week: RPI 267, SOS 143
RPI 72, SOS 23 - Rutgers, 6-5, 0-1, last week: RPI 75, SOS 52
RPI 150, SOS 66 - Valparaiso, 6-9, 2-1, last week: RPI 132, SOS 27
RPI 103, SOS 34 - Louisiana Lafayette, 5-7, 0-1, last week: RPI 95, SOS 50
RPI 24, SOS 56 - Alabama, 11-3, 1-1, last week: RPI 22, SOS 86
RPI 142, SOS 250 - Davidson, 4-7, 3-0, last week: RPI 191, SOS 85
RPI 207, SOS 148 - Georgia State, 4-9, 2-4, last week: RPI 183, SOS 57
RPI 280, SOS 75 - UNC Asheville, 1-10, 0-2, last week: RPI 253, SOS 77
RPI 123, SOS 22 - Indiana, 6-7, 1-1, last week: RPI 129, SOS 29
RPI 152, SOS 59 - Yale, 4-8, 0-0, last week: RPI 134, SOS 53
RPI 265, SOS 230 - Central Connecticut, 4-9, 0-4, last week: RPI 217, SOS 218

Atlantic 10 Conference
RPI rank 12, SOS rank 1; last week: RPI rank 12, SOS rank: 2
Non conference record 52-75; last week 50-73 vs. Division
I
RPI 11, SOS 44 - George Washington, 10-2, 2-0
RPI 19, SOS 2 - Temple, 5-6, 1-0
RPI 81, SOS 11 - Massachusetts, 7-5, 1-0
RPI 96, SOS 28 - Richmond, 5-7, 0-1
RPI 105, SOS 43 - Saint Joseph’s, 5-6, 2-0
RPI 165, SOS 159 - Dayton, 7-5, 0-1
RPI 181, SOS 127 - La Salle, 4-8, 1-1
RPI 188, SOS 174 - Xavier, 6-5, 0-1
RPI 200, SOS 113 - Fordham, 5-8, 1-0
RPI 242, SOS 155 - Duquesne, 4-11, 1-1
RPI 289, SOS 180 - Rhode Island, 3-10, 1-1
RPI 322, SOS 268 - Saint Bonaventure, 1-12, 0-2

Saint Louis will certainly do us no favors in regards to RPI but our games against UAB, Cincy, Marquette and TCU will. Considering what lies ahead, a win tomorrow night is almost necessary in my opinion.

We better be ready to face 40 minutes of Hell.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about this one. They always give us fits for some reason. Very athletic, will press the crap out of us and are solid defenders. And a team is due to be on from the outside against us. I think we have better players but we can’t afford for anyone to have an off night. We need Curt to play his butt off tonight and Mitch will have to have some success getting the ball up the court. We need this one.

Mitch handling the press will be crucial to us winning… It was nice to see him play well against ECU (12 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 turnover in 30 minutes) after having a few off games lately. He had several nice drives to the basket which he had stopped doing for some reason. That should be good for his confidence going into UAB.

As others have said, this is a BIG game for us early in conference play. Not only to boost our RPI and give us a “good” win, but also to give UAB a loss since they have the easiest conference schedule of the teams that will be probably be contending for the championship.

I think we are going to need at least 2 of these wins:

@UAB, @marquette, @cinci, @lous, Cinci

How is it that we can have roughly the same RPI and SOS as Davidson, yet they’re 4-7 and we’re 10-2?

[i]Originally posted by amnesiac[/i]@Jan 11 2005, 12:32 PM [b] I think we are going to need at least 2 of these wins:

@UAB, @marquette, @cinci, @lous, Cinci [/b]


I don’t think 3 wins (@UAB, @ Saint Louis, vs Cincy) is unrealistic at all, let alone 2. Easier said than done, I know. But the UAB game is one that will be tough but we should win. If we can’t win at Saint Louis this year, then it’s NEVER happening. And regardless of how good/bad either team is, the Cincy game at Halton is always one we have a good shot at winning. Not very confident about the Marquette and Cincy road games though. I have both as losses.

We’re more talented than any team we will play the remainder of the year until NCAA time (if we make it) and that includes UL and Cincy. We should be undefeated right now. That and a quarter will get you small bag of chips.

The danger is we play down to people and we did it again Saturday against ECU. They are awful, I played on intramural teams that could have given them a game.

Of the “tough” games we have coming up, I think Marquette is a game we should win. Their best to scorers will have Baldwin and Basden on them and we’re way more athletic that they are. UAB plays good tough D but they struggle getting the ball in the hole. Cincy is better but similar. Louisville, hell who knows, depends on who shows up. Also, don’t forget Memphis at home, they’re struggling but dangerous and talented.

That being said, if we don’t drop one we shouldn’t (BIG IF as always with us) we should go no worse than 3-3 in those 6 games and be okay. Anything less and we’re sweating. The bottom half of the conf is weak as well water and a loss is going to hurt.

[i]Originally posted by Sideshow[/i]@Jan 11 2005, 01:41 PM [b]How is it that we can have roughly the same RPI and SOS as Davidson, yet they're 4-7 and we're 10-2?[/b]
RPI 101

RPI =( 0.25 x winning %) + (0.50 x opponent’s winning %) + (0.25 x opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage)

Our 10-2 record is an 0.833 winning percentage but it gets discounted to 0.208 of our RPI.

Our Cupcakes play incredible schedules against Top 25 teams and get hammered. Do we benefit from the strength of their schedule? Nope. Their terrible winning % (minus our games against them) becomes 50% of our RPI. Only 25% of their opponent’s winning % goes into our RPI.

We are caught in no man’s land.

Early in the season, 50% of a Cupcake’s RPI comes from the winning percentages of vastly superior teams and 25% comes from opponent’s opponent’s which consists of a steady diet of other Cupcakes but includes high-profile TV games and tournaments against other high-major teams to raise the overall winning %.

The Top 25 teams have records comparable to our own (with a few extra tournament wins thrown in to beef them up) which get discounted down to 25% like ours. However, their sprinkling of high-profile, high-major games among the cupcakes significantly enhances their opponent’s winning % which accounts for 50% of the RPI. Their opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage is likely a liitle lower than ours due to that same sprinkling of high-major opponents eating their Cupcakes.

At the beginning of conference play, 50% of the RPI during conference play is predetermined in a balanced conference with a round robin schedule because everybody is playing everybody else and opponent’s winning % is a wash.

When conference schedules begin, the RPI of high-major conferences will bouy even the lowliest of teams within those conferences, whether they win or lose, since 50% comes from opponent’s winning %.

The RPI of Cupcakes will plummet as they play other conference Cupcakes with losing records that account for 50% of their RPI.

Our Conference RPI is going to be average but we are particularly hurt by our unbalanced schedule with two of our three home and away rivalries being SLU and EZU.

On the bright side, while our RPI will not be raised significantly by 50% of our opponent’s winning percentage in conference play, we will be left treading water or rising slightly on our own winning % while we wave at the Cupcakes as they pass us on their way to the bottom.

While our RPI will not get much better statistically, we will be ranked higher relative to many teams that currently have higher RPI than us.

We will benefit slightly as the season progresses from Alabama, Indiana and Rutgers’ opponent’s opponent’s winning % as they enter SEC, Big 10 and Big East play. Davidson and LA Tech’s winning % should also go up as they tear up their conference foes.

Its going to be ugly in the end.

[i]Originally posted by MeinShaft[/i]@Jan 11 2005, 03:44 PM [b] RPI 101

RPI =( 0.25 x winning %) + (0.50 x opponent’s winning %) + (0.25 x opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage)

Our 10-2 record is an 0.833 winning percentage but it gets discounted to 0.208 of our RPI.

Our Cupcakes play incredible schedules against Top 25 teams and get hammered. Do we benefit from the strength of their schedule? Nope. Their terrible winning % (minus our games against them) becomes 50% of our RPI. Only 25% of their opponent’s winning % goes into our RPI.

We are caught in no man’s land.

Early in the season, 50% of a Cupcake’s RPI comes from the winning percentages of vastly superior teams and 25% comes from opponent’s opponent’s which consists of a steady diet of other Cupcakes but includes high-profile TV games and tournaments against other high-major teams to raise the overall winning %.

The Top 25 teams have records comparable to our own (with a few extra tournament wins thrown in to beef them up) which get discounted down to 25% like ours. However, their sprinkling of high-profile, high-major games among the cupcakes significantly enhances their opponent’s winning % which accounts for 50% of the RPI. Their opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage is likely a liitle lower than ours due to that same sprinkling of high-major opponents eating their Cupcakes.

At the beginning of conference play, 50% of the RPI during conference play is predetermined in a balanced conference with a round robin schedule because everybody is playing everybody else and opponent’s winning % is a wash.

When conference schedules begin, the RPI of high-major conferences will bouy even the lowliest of teams within those conferences, whether they win or lose, since 50% comes from opponent’s winning %.

The RPI of Cupcakes will plummet as they play other conference Cupcakes with losing records that account for 50% of their RPI.

Our Conference RPI is going to be average but we are particularly hurt by our unbalanced schedule with two of our three home and away rivalries being SLU and EZU.

On the bright side, while our RPI will not be raised significantly by 50% of our opponent’s winning percentage in conference play, we will be left treading water or rising slightly on our own winning % while we wave at the Cupcakes as they pass us on their way to the bottom.

While our RPI will not get much better statistically, we will be ranked higher relative to many teams that currently have higher RPI than us.

We will benefit slightly as the season progresses from Alabama, Indiana and Rutgers’ opponent’s opponent’s winning % as they enter SEC, Big 10 and Big East play. Davidson and LA Tech’s winning % should also go up as they tear up their conference foes.

Its going to be ugly in the end. [/b]


Translation:

We’ll likely be sweating it out on Selection Sunday unless we only drop a couple conference games or get the automatic bid. :stuck_out_tongue:

We’re capable of both but I’d rather not have to rely on the latter.

Bottom line is: we’ve gotta win at least 3 from the following…home/away vs. cinci,at marquette,at uab,home…memphis,at louisville. You can definitely make a case that if we don’t than we shouldn’t deserve to get into the dance.I think we have the talent,and I like some of the matchups…particularly (overrated) marquette…but we’re definitely gonna have to step it up…beating a lousy ecu team by 12 at home showed me nothing.And I hate to say it,but unless lutz can find some magic dust to sprinkle on our guys at the foul line…I think that could be our undoing…it was vs. rutgers and bama. In the close conf. games down the stretch you know huggy bear and master pittino will know each of our guys f.t.shooting% down to the decimal point. One more opinion…for what its worth…if plavich(god bless his half courter at Indiana) can’t improve his fg% and hit his friggin free throws…than I really believe goldwire becomes a much better option as the year goes on…i.e. defense,ability to drive the lane,f.t. shooting…he’s got a lot more dimensions to his game.

HP, didn’t see you list the pomeroy rankings, but my eyes get dizzy when I see all of those lines. Dropped 1 spot to 50 today.

Pomeroy Rankings