Not if he gets 12+ wins in year 3. Slow growth is better than no growth. As long as he is increasing win totals, he won’t be held to fire until the incoming freshman are seniors. Hill will give his first coaching hire a long rope with a tight grip I believe.
Here’s how the five first year coaches in C-USA faired this season (previous season in italics):
**Charlotte: Ron Sanchez, 8-21 (5-13)
Mark Price/Houston Fancher, 6-23 (2-16)
FAU: Dusty May, 17-15 (8-10)
Michael Curry, 12-19 (6-12)
FIU: Jeremy Ballard, 19-13 (10-8)
Anthony Evans, 14-18 (8-10)
MTSU: Nick McDevitt, 11-21 (8-10)
Kermit Davis, 25-8 (16-2)
Rodney Terry, UTEP, 8-21 (3-15)
Tim Floyd/Phil Johnson, 11-20 (6-12)
Of course, MT an outlier since Davis left for Ole Miss and not fired like others.
Those stats will be really interesting once updated over the next few years. Good comparisons.
No. You cannot judge a coach on an empty season and one recruiting class.
As far as I’m concerned, next year is his first year.
12 wins in third year. Is this real life?
Obviously all hypothetical here (started with 49erstudent post) but if sanchez goes 8, 10, 12… you fire him? What if his 4th year is 14 wins? Hill won’t fire Sanchez if increasing wins 2+ per year. That would take a long time to get to 20 wins though.
that would be a huge disapointment. with our depth, i expect 15 next season but i’ve been called an optimist. it’s too hard to predict bc there are too many unknowns, which might be a good thing next season.
we’ll have three pretty good players who have been in the system for a year (i’m including Vasic). plus what we have brought in. i think we might be in for a surprise or two.
30-60 is a failure. Yes you go away with that record.
I think you have to give a coach until his first recruiting class become seniors before you pull the plug. That is unless the wheels are falling off & there seems to be no progress or direction. It’s almost hard to call this past years freshmen Sanchez’s first class because it was patched together after he was hired without a full recruiting cycle. If we are still at 10 to 15 wins after year 4 it’s time to move on but I think year two or three is too soon.
Will be interesting to follow the progress of the “newbies” in C-USA. Gotta wonder if Rodney Terry having any second thoughts about his move “back home” to Texas. His former team Fresno State is poised for no worse than an NIT appearance after finishing second in the Mountain West behind co-leaders Nevada and Utah State, both of whom will be in the Big Dance.
I agree that we should give him some time, but if we’re still at 15 wins in year three thats going to be a major disappointment.
Sure, we’re rock bottom, but our conference isn’t exactly the ACC. The pieces we need to compete shouldn’t take four years to assemble and develop.
Where we finish prior to bonus play could swing the win totals. I expect us to make the CUSA tournament, but the question is are we at the top of tier 3 or bottom of tier 2? If we are at the top of tier 3 we can squeeze out another 2 or 3 wins in bonus play. If we are in the bottom of tier 2 we could win maybe 1 or 2 games in bonus play.
That said who knows how the new guys coming in can transition. There is some hype on this year’s practice players, but until they prove it then hype it remains.
Six wins last year and eight this season, so we’re not at 15 wins combined!
Anyway, do expect double digit wins in 2019-20. And if C-USA continues with Bonus Play on top of “The Curtain,” the league deserves its irrelevance.
30 wins 10 years from now would be pretty fun.
If 15 wins is expected in Sanchez’s year 2, how many wins would be expected in year 3?
Maybe my math doesn’t make sense but let’s be conservative and say Davis accounted for 3 wins on his back this year. He is gone. So we are relying on new guys for a +10 win margin to get to 15 wins?
I definitely hope & feel like we should do better than that but unfortunately we have fallen so far down we can improve by a few wins every year & still not be at 15 wins in year 3. After Price & Major I will be happy with progress & improvement from year to year. Even if it is a slow process it’s better than being stagnant or regressing each year. Changing coaches again after 2 or 3 years will more than likely restart the process of mass transfers & an empty roster for the next coach. I hope the progress is much faster than 15 wins in year 3. I’m just saying we should be patient & look at the direction we are headed at that point & not just the number of wins.
A bench of 3-4 legit D1 subs would have resulted in about 5 more wins this year. We have 7 new players coming in next year. Depth is HUGE…talented depth is EVEN MORE HUGER.
Next year…adding talent, depth and talented depth is much more than what JD could give us with no bench. We should absolutely expect to get to 15+.
I’m not a NA or Sportsman type where I’m expecting greatness after three years.
But we went 3-7 in Quad 4 games this year, 5-9 in Quad 3 and 0-3 and 0-2 in Quad 2 and Quad 1.
We flip around to 7-3 in Quad 4 and lets say 7-7 in Quad 3 and we’re only 1 game off from 15 wins. I don’t think its unreasonable to expect us to have a winning record against the bottom half of the NCAA (9-20 Chattanooga, 6-21 UTEP or 12-20 JMU), quickly.
Breaking .500 in Quad 3 is also not an outlandish goal, nor should it be seen as one. Teams with a lot less resources (UMBC, UC Irving, and more I’m sure) have had quicker turnarounds.
I get it, we’re down. Its going to take a long hard rebuild to get back to the glory years and it shouldn’t be expected we reach that by year three. However 15 wins should be a basement for us, not a year three goal.
Last point, we need to turn our revenue athletics around quickly. Even if Mike Hill had the four year approach to that mark, we can’t afford to wait. We need to be in a good position when the conference realignment talk starts back up again.
Is depth better than D1 starter talent? Who played last season that will be back that you would say would start on half of D1 teams? The current team doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Hopefully the incoming freshman are way ahead of last year’s freshman. To get over the hump we need legit starters and not a team full of bench depth players.