Not if he gets 12+ wins in year 3. Slow growth is better than no growth. As long as he is increasing win totals, he wonât be held to fire until the incoming freshman are seniors. Hill will give his first coaching hire a long rope with a tight grip I believe.
Hereâs how the five first year coaches in C-USA faired this season (previous season in italics):
**Charlotte: Ron Sanchez, 8-21 (5-13)
Mark Price/Houston Fancher, 6-23 (2-16)
FAU: Dusty May, 17-15 (8-10)
Michael Curry, 12-19 (6-12)
FIU: Jeremy Ballard, 19-13 (10-8)
Anthony Evans, 14-18 (8-10)
MTSU: Nick McDevitt, 11-21 (8-10)
Kermit Davis, 25-8 (16-2)
Rodney Terry, UTEP, 8-21 (3-15)
Tim Floyd/Phil Johnson, 11-20 (6-12)
Of course, MT an outlier since Davis left for Ole Miss and not fired like others.
Those stats will be really interesting once updated over the next few years. Good comparisons.
No. You cannot judge a coach on an empty season and one recruiting class.
As far as Iâm concerned, next year is his first year.
12 wins in third year. Is this real life?
Obviously all hypothetical here (started with 49erstudent post) but if sanchez goes 8, 10, 12⌠you fire him? What if his 4th year is 14 wins? Hill wonât fire Sanchez if increasing wins 2+ per year. That would take a long time to get to 20 wins though.
that would be a huge disapointment. with our depth, i expect 15 next season but iâve been called an optimist. itâs too hard to predict bc there are too many unknowns, which might be a good thing next season.
weâll have three pretty good players who have been in the system for a year (iâm including Vasic). plus what we have brought in. i think we might be in for a surprise or two.
30-60 is a failure. Yes you go away with that record.
I think you have to give a coach until his first recruiting class become seniors before you pull the plug. That is unless the wheels are falling off & there seems to be no progress or direction. Itâs almost hard to call this past years freshmen Sanchezâs first class because it was patched together after he was hired without a full recruiting cycle. If we are still at 10 to 15 wins after year 4 itâs time to move on but I think year two or three is too soon.
Will be interesting to follow the progress of the ânewbiesâ in C-USA. Gotta wonder if Rodney Terry having any second thoughts about his move âback homeâ to Texas. His former team Fresno State is poised for no worse than an NIT appearance after finishing second in the Mountain West behind co-leaders Nevada and Utah State, both of whom will be in the Big Dance.
I agree that we should give him some time, but if weâre still at 15 wins in year three thats going to be a major disappointment.
Sure, weâre rock bottom, but our conference isnât exactly the ACC. The pieces we need to compete shouldnât take four years to assemble and develop.
Where we finish prior to bonus play could swing the win totals. I expect us to make the CUSA tournament, but the question is are we at the top of tier 3 or bottom of tier 2? If we are at the top of tier 3 we can squeeze out another 2 or 3 wins in bonus play. If we are in the bottom of tier 2 we could win maybe 1 or 2 games in bonus play.
That said who knows how the new guys coming in can transition. There is some hype on this yearâs practice players, but until they prove it then hype it remains.
Six wins last year and eight this season, so weâre not at 15 wins combined!
Anyway, do expect double digit wins in 2019-20. And if C-USA continues with Bonus Play on top of âThe Curtain,â the league deserves its irrelevance.
30 wins 10 years from now would be pretty fun.
If 15 wins is expected in Sanchezâs year 2, how many wins would be expected in year 3?
Maybe my math doesnât make sense but letâs be conservative and say Davis accounted for 3 wins on his back this year. He is gone. So we are relying on new guys for a +10 win margin to get to 15 wins?
I definitely hope & feel like we should do better than that but unfortunately we have fallen so far down we can improve by a few wins every year & still not be at 15 wins in year 3. After Price & Major I will be happy with progress & improvement from year to year. Even if it is a slow process itâs better than being stagnant or regressing each year. Changing coaches again after 2 or 3 years will more than likely restart the process of mass transfers & an empty roster for the next coach. I hope the progress is much faster than 15 wins in year 3. Iâm just saying we should be patient & look at the direction we are headed at that point & not just the number of wins.
A bench of 3-4 legit D1 subs would have resulted in about 5 more wins this year. We have 7 new players coming in next year. Depth is HUGEâŚtalented depth is EVEN MORE HUGER.
Next yearâŚadding talent, depth and talented depth is much more than what JD could give us with no bench. We should absolutely expect to get to 15+.
Iâm not a NA or Sportsman type where Iâm expecting greatness after three years.
But we went 3-7 in Quad 4 games this year, 5-9 in Quad 3 and 0-3 and 0-2 in Quad 2 and Quad 1.
We flip around to 7-3 in Quad 4 and lets say 7-7 in Quad 3 and weâre only 1 game off from 15 wins. I donât think its unreasonable to expect us to have a winning record against the bottom half of the NCAA (9-20 Chattanooga, 6-21 UTEP or 12-20 JMU), quickly.
Breaking .500 in Quad 3 is also not an outlandish goal, nor should it be seen as one. Teams with a lot less resources (UMBC, UC Irving, and more Iâm sure) have had quicker turnarounds.
I get it, weâre down. Its going to take a long hard rebuild to get back to the glory years and it shouldnât be expected we reach that by year three. However 15 wins should be a basement for us, not a year three goal.
Last point, we need to turn our revenue athletics around quickly. Even if Mike Hill had the four year approach to that mark, we canât afford to wait. We need to be in a good position when the conference realignment talk starts back up again.
Is depth better than D1 starter talent? Who played last season that will be back that you would say would start on half of D1 teams? The current team doesnât give me a lot of confidence. Hopefully the incoming freshman are way ahead of last yearâs freshman. To get over the hump we need legit starters and not a team full of bench depth players.