We did have a 47% chance before the last two weeks of play:
Guess that blow out of FIU has made MTSU a contender now.
Doesnāt look like our win has improved anyone at ESPNās opinion of us. Vegas has the opening line at MTSU -2.5
Itās early but looks like itās going to be damn near perfect. What will those that donāt showās excuse be to miss this one?
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Huge game, Iām trying not to get too excited but things get real for a bowl opportunity if can get the win Saturday. Football isnāt fair sometimes, after all our QB struggles since start-up that MT could pluck a baller like OāHara from JUCO is ridiculous. Lambert was never ever to exorcise the demon Stockstill despite a couple of great chances (especially last year), hoping Healy can do it and get us back on the path to a bowl.
** Remember 2015 **
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Not sure what it says about MTSU that OāHara is their #1 rusher too. I remember us hanging a lot of hope last year on beating them because they were on their 3rd string RB and Stockstill the Younger was their leading rusher. Of course Stockstill was Stockstill, letās hope OāHara isnāt his second coming.
You know our current QB has outperformed MTās QB this season. Both are Sophomores.
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Oh sure, I wouldnāt trade with them, Reynolds is balling. Itās just we endured years of QB purgatory (some of that falls on the Mullenfense scheme) before Reynolds emerged. Stock the Elder should not have been able to go from Stock the Younger to Oāhara, at least not if his football karma bill was paid. Itās dueā¦hope Healy can collect Saturday.
I did watch a good bit of the MT/Marshall game and they are still physical, hope the OL brings their hard hats.
Massey is only giving us a 31% chance to win this one.
https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8156&s=308075
Better than the 25% he gives us against Marshall.
Our Defense is listed as 231st in D-Iā¦yikes!
After us they get Rice, ODU, and WKU. Even at 3-5 this could be a cake walk to a bowl game for them if we donāt beat them. If we do, they have to win out.
Massey also predicted that we would only win one game last year.
It took a perfect game from Reynolds, and a standout game from Benny, no drops and no turnovers (and a perfect 5 TDs on 5 2nd half possessions in the 2nd half) to beat a bad defensive team at home last week by 1 point.
MTSU is an offense we will struggle with. Weāve been giving up an AVERAGE of 40 points per game in Conferenceā¦safe bet that our D will give up at least 35 but likely more. Hard to see us slowing down a team that just hung 50 on a team that handled us rather easily. Againā¦I donāt place bets but MTSU by 3 seems like easy money. I just donāt see how we can expect our offense to play turnover free & nearly perfect football again just to keep pace with what our defense will surely allow against another quality Conference opponent.
I keep holding out hope that the defense will āfigure it outā but after 8 gamesā¦itās probably safe to assume that our defense is what it is. Too many holes and not enough horses.
Maybe this will be the weekend we figure it out and make some adjustments and get some breaks and hopefully a couple of turnoversā¦if notā¦the offense better be perfect again (which is fun to watch when it is).
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This is sure fire money but I donāt place betsā¦tells me all that I need to know about you.
They made the adjustment for the WKU game. They have gone to 1 on 1 db coverage to stop the run. It has helped the run but exposed the corners. Last year we did similar, but played more linebackers instead of DBs and had the DBs play 10 yards off to prevent the long ball. I think we have what we have based on talent. With 5 DBs on the field we struggle more with the run and playing tight press exposes us to slants and the deep shot.
That I donāt gamble?
All talk, no action.
I agree with TRL. OāHara is a true dual threat. If we can get off the field on third down, we can compete.
If not, we will get smoked. I think they can beat us with the web handling the runs, the rbās running and in the the long and short passing game. Their Oline is competent and doubling and chipping Highsmith is become the rule, so the other DLās need to step it up.
As for strategy, Iād like to see us get the ball to start the 2nd half. We have scored on two of our first eight drives to start a game. Us giving up points to end the half and the other team getting the ball to start the second half has been a suboptimal situation.
Iād live to see Bennie as a dump off option after a chip block. That guy canāt touch the ball enough.
So you are calling me out on a messageboard for stating a reasonable and fact based opinion that I wonāt gamble on?
Yepā¦looks like Iām the punk here.
Since it looks like thatās the only problem you have with my postā¦I take it you agree with my overall pointā¦sans the gambling part.
Thanks!
I live looking at betting lines but never bet. Just not something Iām into. Figure I have enough vices in my life no need to create another.
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Something interesting that I just saw is that we have the number 2 and number 3 sack leader in the conference in Highsmith and Watts.
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