Conference and ratings

It’s still pretty early for looking at conference ratings and things like rpi, but I thought it was interesting to note the following ratings from rpiforecast.com (http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html):

Projected conference rating = 7th
Current conference rating = 7th

Projected rpi / current rpi / team

26.1 / 29 / Saint Louis
34.3 / 18 / Xavier
37.9 / 38 / St. Joes
55.1 / 65 / Dayton
61.8 / 34 / Richmond
64.5 / 64 / Temple
85.8 / 92 / LaSalle
91.4 / 123 / Charlotte
95.5 / 94 / St. Bon.
95.7 / 93 / Duquesne
122.3 / 70 / GW
135.5 / 129 / Umass
262.6 / 284 / URI
271.7 / 281 / Fordham

So the A10 currently has 10 teams in the top 100 of the rpi (overall conference rating is being dragged down terribly by URI and Fordham). Even projected though, the conference is expected to end up with around 10 teams in the top 100. It’s too early for firm conclusions yet, so a lot could change. But I think conference play this year will be much tougher than usual. Last year the conference had only 4 teams in the top 100, and the year before that, only 7. Xavier is Xavier (though maybe even better this year), Temple and Richmond appear to be a little worse, but Saint Louis and St. Joes look somewhat comparable to those teams from last year. The difference is in the middle, where teams may end up ~ 50 - 80 spots higher in the rpi than similarly placed teams last year.

Will be interesting to track how the conference does for the rest of the OOC. We could be really improved, and still end up in the bottom third.

Thought now, near the end of OOC, was a pretty good time to bump the ratings from rpiforecast.com for the conference (http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html):

Projected conference rating = 7th
Current conference rating = 7th

Projected rpi / current rpi / team

28.8 / 16 / Temple
33 / 57 / SLU
33.3 / 34 / St. Joes
47.3 / 27 / Dayton
65.5 / 58 / Xavier
88.5 / 127 / LaSalle
96.8 / 74 / Umass
97 / 106 / Duquesne
98.8 / 85 / St. Bon.
104.4 / 102 / Charlotte
119.8 / 120 / Richmond
201.2 / 226 / GW
237.5 / 184 / Fordham
256.2 / 245 / URI

So now Temple has switched places with X, GW has dropped significantly, and the bottom feeders have risen some. This rating puts Charlotte at 10th place. Overall, the conference is gaining on the ACC, but pretty solidly in 7th place. Still have 9 teams predicted to be top 100, with Charlotte just on the outside of that. The opportunity is there to win post-season play with good performance in the conference, similar to how Charlotte often did it in CUSA.

Update:

Projected conference rating = 7th
Current conference rating = 7th

Projected rpi / current rpi / team

39.2 / 59 / SLU
39.7 / 26 / Temple
47.9 / 28 / Dayton
48.5 / 27 / St. Joes
49.8 / 42 / Xavier
78.1 / 88 / LaSalle
79.2 / 62 / Umass
93.7 / 92 / Richmond
98.1 / 89 / Charlotte
98.7 / 100 / Duquesne
107 / 84 / St. Bon.
202.3 / 214 / GW
235 / 184 / Fordham
266.7 / 269 / URI

So 11 teams in the top 100 in rpi, 10 of which are expected to be there at seasons end by rpiforecast.com. This might be one of the toughest years, top-to-bottom, that the A10 has had in a while. The problem for postseason play is that the teams at the top are not as clearly separated as in years past, but that can still happen as conference play continues. Most likely the Niners will have 4+ opportunities for top 50 wins (Temple, Dayton, Xavier twice) and are 1-1 so far against teams expected to finish in the top 50 at this point.

Damn Lamar. #slipping

Sporadic update:

Update:

Projected conference rating = 7th
Current conference rating = 7th

Projected rpi / current rpi / team

22.9 / 20 / Temple
28.3 / 29 / SLU
55.2 / 51 / St. Joes
56.1 / 62 / Xavier
69.7 / 65 / Umass
75.1 / 83 / LaSalle
78.5 / 73 / Dayton
79.5 / 78 / Duquesne
99.7 / 93 / St. Bon.
127.5 / 120 / Richmond
139.4 / 127 / Charlotte
193.4 / 182 / GW
242.8 / 224 / Fordham
249.6 / 241 / URI

Temple and SLU, barring collapses, look to be in great shape for at-large bids (Temple should be ranked soon). Should be an interesting battle for the conference. Teams like Umass and Xavier (and maybe LaSalle) still have chances to play their way into at-large bids, but have little margin for error. Dayton has dropped like a rock, but could still get back into it if they go on a winning streak thanks to a strong OOC. The rest of the conference is probably hoping for an auto-bid at best.

Still 9 teams are top 100 currently and projected at end of the season, pretty impressive for this conference.