Well the long dog days of Summer are soon to be upon us and with it the dreams of crisp Fall Saturdays that now, unlike last year and all the years before it, hold the anticipation of the fulfillment of long hard work on all our parts. In four short and exciting years we will finally join the ranks of complete athletics playing universities.
[B][COLOR=Green]WE WILL BE PLAYING 49ers FOOTBALL![/COLOR][/B]
And with this excitement comes questions of where we will find a conference home.
This thread is for speculation on the future of FBS level football conferences, the BCS and Charlotte’s place in that world when we get to that level.
This is a complement to the FCS Shuffle Fun Thread:
[URL=http://www.ninernation.net/forum/showthread.php?p=404333#post404333]FCS Shuffle Fun Thread[/URL]
[U]So here we go:[/U]
[I][U]My Assumptions[/U][/I]
[LIST]
[*]The BCS will not change over the next 20 years. It will remain 6 conferences and 4 bowls. Access to the lower conferences may or may not increase but overall I believe the money will still flow to the current Haves.
[/LIST]
[LIST]
[*]No current BCS conference will expand over the next 20 years. I base this on several factors. The Big XII, ACC and SEC have 12 schools each and are satisfied with that. The Big 10 has 11 and has shown little interest in a conference champ game and in any other school BUT Notre Dame. Also, if Notre Dame losses the NBC contract and is forced to join a conference it will be the Big 10 and so not cause a domino effect at all. The PAC 10 has shown even less interest in expansion and a conference champ game than the Big 10 plus they would need a unanimous vote to add new members and there are even less options for west coast BCS expansion than out east. The Big East is the most likely candidate for expansion but considering their new TV contract with ESPN it is doubtful that the football schools would want to leave the basketball schools. The option to take a major non-BCS school as a football only member is a fallacy because the Big East schools have very little problem scheduling a 5th OOC game, definately not enough trouble to split the money pie with another wedge.
[/LIST]
[LIST]
[*]The Mountain West Conference will not expand. First, nine is the perfect number for 8 conference games and 4 OOC games. Second, the conference does not need to expand unless it would help their desire to be a BCS conference which is a fallacy because the BCS Conferences don’t need a 7th member so long as they have a majority of the NCAA FBS Competition Committee vote (6 BCS conferences beat 5 or even a future 6 non-BCS conferences). The only way the MWC becomes BCS in the forseeable future is if 2 new non-BCS conferences form.
[/LIST]
[LIST]
[*]The most likely candidate conference to cause an expansion crisis is CUSA. The geographic distances involved are the primary factor. ECU AD Ballard has made references to a conference split and the financial difficulties involved in the Greenville to El Paso trips for Softball, Track and Field and all non-profit sports. Currently CUSA is balancing these factors out with increased bowl game access (6 current tie ins, most of any non-BCS conference) but most of these bowls are at the lower payout of the bowl spectrum. Clearly both the west division and east division schools have aknowledged the difficulties of travel costs and the desire to reduce these costs by fewer cross division games. Geographically more compact conferences would have appeal to both divisions.
[/LIST]
[I][U]My Conclusion:[/U][/I]
The best case senario for [B][COLOR=Green]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B] at FBS level is a CUSA split into two separate conferences. The reason is an expansion of large FCS level schools with desires to be FBS namely [B][COLOR=Green]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B], Georgia St., South Alabama and UT San Antonio.
here is how I see the CUSA split:
[U][B]New South Conference[/B][/U]
East Carolina
Memphis
Marshall
Alabama Birmingham
Southern Mississippi
Central Florida
Tulane
[U]To get to nine schools[/U]
[B][COLOR=Green]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
Georgia State
[U]Candidates for getting to twelve schools[/U]
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
South Alabama
U [B]Southwest Conference[/B][/U]
Tulsa
Houston
UT El Paso
Southern Methodist
Rice
[U]To get to nine schools[/U]
New Mexico State
UT San Antonio
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
[U]Candidates for getting to twelve schools[/U]
Arkansas State
Missouri State (assuming desire to move to FBS)
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Lafayette
Tulane (assuming they forgo more traditional alignment with CUSA East schools)
[B][U]Sun Belt Conference with us[/U][/B]
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Middle Tennessee State
North Texas
South Alabama (non football conference member already promised a football spot)
Troy
Western Kentucky
[B][COLOR=Green]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
Georgia State (most likely destination in FBS)