Discussion fodder: week 1 RPIs

49ers Basketball Forum 🏀
1

Since everyone has now played a couple of games, watch it move around over the next 2-3 weeks. Charlotte has an RPI of 109 and an SOS of 131.

49ers’ non-conference opponents…

[QUOTE][B]1 Clemson, RPI 14, SOS 46[/B]
2 Hofstra, RPI 23, SOS 7
[B]3 Wake Forest, RPI 37, SOS 96[/B]
4 Illinois-Chicago, RPI 60, SOS 17
[B]5 Gardner-Webb, RPI 84, SOS 95[/B]
6 Monmouth, RPI 93, SOS 49
[B]7 Georgia Tech, RPI 124, SOS 112[/B]
8 Maryland, RPI 150, SOS 254
[B]9 Davidson, RPI 167, SOS 54[/B]
10 Appalachian State, RPI 176, SOS 194
[B]11 Fairleigh-Dickinson, RPI 199, SOS 182[/B]
12 High Point, RPI 232, SOS 211
[B]13 Southern Illinois, RPI 248, SOS 317[/B]
14 Tulsa, RPI 294, SOS 313[/QUOTE]
Atlantic 10…

[QUOTE][B]1 Dayton, RPI 31, SOS 19[/B]
2 Saint Joseph’s, RPI 32, SOS 59
[B]3 Massachusetts, RPI 38, SOS 71[/B]
4 Fordham, RPI 48, SOS 40
[B]5 Saint Louis, RPI 64, SOS 104[/B]
6 Duquesne, RPI 81, SOS 177
[B][COLOR=Green]7 Charlotte, RPI 109, SOS 131[/COLOR][/B]
8 Rhode Island, RPI 120, SOS 229
[B]9 George Washington, RPI 143, SOS 247[/B]
10 La Salle, RPI 156, SOS 135
[B]11 Richmond, RPI 192, SOS 166[/B]
12 Saint Bonaventure, RPI 193, SOS 232
[B]13 Temple, RPI 235, SOS 195[/B]
14 Xavier, RPI 287, SOS 297[/QUOTE]
Teams in the Carolinas…

[QUOTE][B]1 Clemson, RPI 14, 46[/B]
2 Winthrop, RPI 22, SOS 66
[B]3 Wake Forest, RPI 37, SOS 96[/B]
4 Gardner-Webb, RPI 84, SOS 95
[B]5 Charleston Southern, RPI 99, SOS 12[/B]
6 UNC Wilmington, RPI 108, SOS 86
[B][COLOR=green]7 Charlotte, RPI 109, SOS 131[/COLOR][/B]
8 Western Carolina, RPI 132, SOS 85
[B]9 Duke, RPI 133, SOS 239[/B]
10 Furman, RPI 133, SOS 30
[B]11 North Carolina A & T, RPI 156, SOS 42[/B]
12 Winston-Salem State, RPI 159, SOS 125
[B]13 Davidson, RPI 167, SOS 54[/B]
14 Appalachian State, RPI 176, SOS 194
[B]15 UNC-Chapel Hill, RPI 181, SOS 283[/B]
16 North Carolina State, RPI 201, SOS 157
[B]17 UNC Greensboro, RPI 204, SOS 272[/B]
18 North Carolina Central, RPI 219, SOS 104
[B]19 Wofford, RPI 220, SOS 111[/B]
20 UNC Asheville, RPI 223, SOS 304
[B]21 High Point, RPI 232, SOS 211[/B]
22 South Carolina State, RPI 239, SOS 129
[B]23 College of Charleston, RPI 242, SOS 208[/B]
24 Coastal Carolina, RPI 263, SOS 284
[B]25 South Carolina, RPI 281, SOS 294[/B]
26 Presbyterian, RPI 282, SOS 210
[B]27 The Citadel, RPI 287, SOS 217[/B]
28 Campbell, RPI 306, SOS 256
[B]29 Elon, RPI 307, SOS 315[/B]
30 East Carolina, RPI 326, SOS 306[/QUOTE]

2

I must admit, I enjoy seeing North Carolina A&T rated higher than UNC-Chapel Hill

3

Wake will take a hit tonight when they play NC-Central

4

Hey moss, why didn’t you go out and dance at the women’s game when they played YMCA?

5

Not a huge fan of RPI with it’s goofy arithmetric and also it does not consider injuries or margin of victory/defeat.

[B][U][URL=http://www-personal.umich.edu/~risraels/rpiforecast/graphs/hist-Charlotte.png]Charlotte’s Histogram[/URL][/U][/B]

[B][U][URL=http://www.rpiforecast.com/]RPI Forecast[/URL][/U][/B]

But a strong RPI from the A-10 would never hurt.

6

Why would a syracuse fan like the RPI, especially with the new weighting that considers home vs away games?

7

[QUOTE=HP49er;270075]

Teams in the Carolinas…[/QUOTE]

Where does Wintrop fall in here? Just curious.

You can’t take too much from this right now, but it’s still fun to watch.

8

Otto, I’d be thrilled at these results. Thanks for the find!

[QUOTE][B]Charlotte[/B]
Expected RPI: 109.2
Current RPI: 109
Expected SOS: 69
Current Record: 3-1
Expected Record: 16-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 5-1
Expected OOC Record: 7-6
Expected OOC RPI: 84
Expected OOC SOS: 13[/QUOTE]

9

[QUOTE=HP49er;270087]Hey moss, why didn’t you go out and dance at the women’s game when they played YMCA?[/QUOTE]

haha, HP, I tried to convince my Neice to go out there but she wouldn’t. She was too busy giving me a hard time because Wake was beating Charlotte. I haven’t been able to convert her yet :unhappy:

10

Bojangles, sorry I left them out. Winthrop’s RPI is 22, and their SOS is 66.

moss, give her time, she’ll come around. That is something cool for the kids they do at Wake games.

11
Why would a syracuse fan like the RPI, especially with the new weighting that considers home vs away games?

I just think the 0.6 & 1.4 multiplers are just a bit extreme… maybe more along the lines of 0.8 and 1.2.

12

Hey, maybe if big time programs played schools that weren’t terrible on the road, they would appreciate the vaule of the RPI more.

Oh, nevermind, they wouldn’t cause then they’d probably lose more games.

13
Hey, maybe if big time programs played schools that weren't terrible on the road, they would appreciate the vaule of the RPI more.

Oh, nevermind, they wouldn’t cause then they’d probably lose more games.

I can understand your point but with Syracuse it’s a matter of money, especially now that its football program is in the dumps. RPI is a tool and has value but I just think its skewed a tad.

14

Just giving you a hard time, since the Cuse has such a hard time playing outside of the Carrier dome during out of conference play.

15
Just giving you a hard time, since the Cuse has such a hard time playing outside of the Carrier dome during out of conference play.

I think everyone should push for their school cause there is a lot money involved… but it’s a little Goofy when a defeat for Siena at Canisius is worth more than its victory at home agaiinst Stanford. No system is prefect but does make good fun discussion.

16

[QUOTE=OrangeOtto;270108]I think everyone should push for their school cause there is a lot money involved… but it’s a little Goofy when a defeat for Siena at Canisius is worth more than its victory at home agaiinst Stanford. No system is prefect but does make good fun discussion.[/QUOTE]

It’s not worth more in the overall scheme. If stanford has a good season, then it will be more valuable, no question.

17
Otto, I'd be thrilled at these results. Thanks for the find!

np … here’s a [U][B][URL=http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html]link[/URL][/B][/U] that updates RPI soon after games end if you don’t already have it.

18

[QUOTE=survivor45;270078]I must admit, I enjoy seeing North Carolina A&T rated higher than UNC-Chapel Hill[/QUOTE]

Exactly why it’s not worth looking at yet. Until Christmas, the [URL=http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0708.htm][B][U][COLOR=Blue]Sagarin Ratings[/COLOR][/U][/B][/URL] are a much better indicator. They will be close to matching at the end of the season, but right now the RPI is out of whack until the majority of non-conference games are played.

[QUOTE=OrangeOtto]Not a huge fan of RPI with it’s goofy arithmetric and also it does not consider injuries or margin of victory/defeat.[/QUOTE]

It’s impossible to consider what a team would or would not have done should an injured player have been healthy. There’s no way you could factor that into a season-long formula. It would not be fair to the other schools to consider only the games when a said team was at “full strength”, either.

The RPI should never consider margin of victory. The Spurrier’s and Belichek’s of college basketball would be even worse than they already are if this was a factor. There’s already enough showmanship in the game now. We don’t need teams running up the score to try to inprove their RPI.

19

[QUOTE=OrangeOtto;270088]Not a huge fan of RPI with it’s goofy arithmetric and also it does not consider injuries or margin of victory/defeat.

[B][U][URL=http://www-personal.umich.edu/~risraels/rpiforecast/graphs/hist-Charlotte.png]Charlotte’s Histogram[/URL][/U][/B]

[B][U][URL=http://www.rpiforecast.com/]RPI Forecast[/URL][/U][/B]

But a strong RPI from the A-10 would never hurt.[/QUOTE]

That forecast has us going 16-13, and 7-6 in non-conf. After our decent start, I’m surprisingly expecting a better non-conf winning % than that. I probably shouldn’t, based on that UIC game.

20

[QUOTE=NinerAdvocate;270129]That forecast has us going 16-13, and 7-6 in non-conf. After our decent start, I’m surprisingly expecting a better non-conf winning % than that. I probably shouldn’t, based on that UIC game.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, we haven’t really gotten to the meat of our non conference, but I think we can go better than 7-6, beating Monmouth, FD and GW would get us to 6 wins. I think we have a good shot at the WFU game. If GaTech is any indication, we should have a good shot at Clemson and UMD as well. I think we might split the ACC games this year. That puts us to 8 wins. I don’t think we’re going to beat Davidson or the Salukis.

I am not sure what the other game is, off the top of my head, but if it is a cupcake, I could see us 9-4. If it isn’t, I could see us at 8-5. Either way I would be happy.

Edit: We also have Tulsa and Hofstra. I see no reason we can’t win either of those games, but those are both teams we have been known to lose to in the past. I think even if we split those, we’ll be sitting pretty.