Electric cars - How quick will mainstream adopt?


#41

I’m waiting for details on the Model Y. I think it’s currently slated for a 2020 release, which probably means 2021. I won’t ever buy a first generation model, so probably 2022 or 2023 at the earliest before I’m I would be interested in purchasing one, which lines up pretty well with when I’ll likely be in the market for a new car anyway. Also by then, we may have other cars that are similar to a Model Y, so I may have even more options. I just hope the other manufacturers either adopt Tesla’s supercharging technology or have robust networks of their own. Right now though, the Supercharging network is the differentiator that makes Tesla the only option I will consider for an electric vehicle.


#42

so Ole Musky really badged his first 4 cars to spell out “S E X Y”?

Just how small is it Elon?

(note: the E got changed to the 3 due to a Mercedes lawsuit)


#43

Yes, he did. The Model 3 was originally supposed to be called the Model E, but that was already owned by another car company. I think Ford. Instead, they called it the Model 3, but made the logo three parallel lines that look like a capital E without the vertical line.

Musk is basically a neckbeard with enough money to afford professional grooming.


#44

Saw a line of charging stations at a Sheetz in VA today. Looks like Tesla sponsors them, as they had the name on each of them. Only one car was charging at the time. It was a Tesla .


#45

Driverless fork trucks began in the 1950’s and pretty much every major manufacturer has invested in them over the years. The one issue is that a manufacturing facility is a controlled environment. The open road has many hurdles to jump prior to being possible.

Here are some samples. I worked as a designer and installer on some of these.

Here is a system that I sold in Dallas, Texas.


#46

Tesla designs, installs, and owns them. They cost Tesla about $150,000 per installation. There is a setup at the Walgreens on Harris Blvd by campus too. They have over 1000 locations in the U.S. alone. All Tesla owners up until earlier this year get free super charging for life.


#47

If tesla ever went belly up, I’d bet that someone would acquire and operate that supercharger network. It may no longer be “free”, but it’s too large of a network to let rot.


#48

Here is my question and I may just be ignorant or have skipped over stuff, but those who are informed on this stuff, how do you see this affecting the fuel industry? Do these electric cars have the ability to take gas, I know some do now, but I assume as more charging stations pop up and the batteries are better made the need for fuel would decrease.
Or do you think the drop in fuel usage would be negligible at least for the next 5-10 years? Kind of curious on this especially with gas prices down in the $1.95 range by my house.


#49

some plug in hybrids do. The Chevy Volt, plug in Prius, and maybe a handful of others. Teslas, Chevy Bolts, and the cars from VW and Hyundai that NA referenced in the initial post are 100% electric.


#50

I did a lot of consulting engineering work at RJ Reynold’s Tobaccoville Plant. They’ve had AGV’s for probably 20 years or more. They’re on their second generation now. They never tire or ask for raises! Pretty cool.


#51

The second generation ones were ours at RJR. I didn’t work on the project, but I have gone to see that system.


#52

I watched a very nice documentary on GM’s EV car from the 90’s. Everyone who owned the car loved the car, but the oil industry went to GM and the car went away. Since it was a lease only car, once the lease was up GM took the cars and had every one of them destroyed. I think a bigger threat to the fuel industry is Tesla’s semi truck and how well it performs. Let’s say UPS or FedEx jumps on board and starts replacing their fleet you will see more than just the oil industry worrying.


#53

Again might be ignorant here, but who else besides the oil industry would worry? Assuming their at least watching this since Tesla’s model operated well.


#54

All of the motor vehicle suppliers would be worried. From the truck side you have Mack, Volvo, Freightliner, etc. Thompson buses here in NC should also worry. If I was Tesla I would have a bus before a Semi, but I am not there. I don’t know many school bus routes over 300 to 500 miles. Superchargers at the schools and bingo. You see these motor companies have decades upon decades of experience building vehicles, but zero building electric vehicles. That takes different skilled people. Tesla, Google, and Amazon have raided companies over the last decade or longer. That’s not to say that Volvo trucks can’t put out an electric truck, but they are way behind the 8 ball and who are they going to hire. GM, Ford, etc. is in the same boat. They would have to raid Tesla and overpay for talent to try to catch up. Anyone thinking of buying a Ford electric or other car manufacturer be prepared for problems upon problems. I would not touch them without a decade of cars in production. Tesla started in 2003 on the first roadster. That is a tremendous amount of lessons learned.

On top of those, you have auto part stores, auto part suppliers, gas stations, quick lube centers. If I am a muffler supplier I am looking to see how I can diversify my business if I haven’t already. It will be like the newspaper and magazine industry. You see them around, but hardly anyone buys them unless you are old school or just like them over the new technology.


#55

Really well said and as someone who works in journalism, you’re right. Not many people go for newspapers and magazines unless they truly like them in hard copy form.
That decline has happened over the last 10yrs, do you think in 10yrs we see electric cars/trucks dominating the roadways?


#56

Tough to say. My guess is that market share is 30% - 40% for passenger vehicles if the technology keeps advancing. Changes in laws and economic conditions may play a factor as well.


#57

I think making them affordable would see the spike, obviously that takes time as mass production sets in.


#58

In June I was at a conference where one of the keynotes was from a guy from The Institute for the Future (IFTF). One of the things he talked about is autonomous semi trucks, and how they will be here soon. Driving on highways will be easy, safe and cheap for them. The plan is that terminals will be right off interstate exits, and people will drive the load for the"last mile" deliveries. Goodbye to most of the trucking jobs.

As to @NinerWupAss’ comments, cars today are more like appliances than when we were growing up. It is hard to get passionate when they all look alike inside and out. A Kia Stinger is no '71 Chevelle.


#59

Walmart originally ordered 15 of the Tesla Semis. In Sept they ordered 30 more.


#60

The biggest hurdle is safety. There is nothing on the market or in the near future that can distinguish if a live object will remain stationary or will begin moving. If you were driving you would react to kids playing next to the street with a ball differently than kids walking on the sidewalk. Automation cannot do this very well. The only way you see autonomous driving in the near future is through elevated super highways where on and off ramps determine the level of automation. This is the only way to limit the environment to what the technology is capable of doing in my opinion. In the factories we still hit things and get hit by things even in that controlled environment where everyone is trained.