I am only assuming, but would like the opinion of people who follow the team and “system” a lot more then me. I am assuming that a loss to Xavier and our NCAA chances are gone (unless we win the A-10 Tourney), am I correct?
IMO we basically need to win out to get an at large bid. Our RPI is in the 80s and we have some bad losses. Maybe we could drop one more game to a good team on the road, like Temple. But the Xavier is a must win.
I am only assuming, but would like the opinion of people who follow the team and "system" a lot more then me. I am assuming that a loss to Xavier and our NCAA chances are gone (unless we win the A-10 Tourney), am I correct?As much as i hate to say it, yeah, it would probably eliminate us, unless we run the table on the way to the A10 tourney and get 20ish wins. i mean, that would be losses to dayton, massachusetts, richmond, and Xavier (conference) plus the ugly ones to hofstra, monmouth, tulsa, and the coulda/shouldaa of maryland. the only things that might save us are the wins at clemson, home vs wake forest and st joes. idk, it would be tight. we are on the bubble already, X is a statement game.
I think we could afford 1 more loss,thats it.Plus we’d need to make some noise in the A-10 tourney.Playing at Rhode Island the last game of the season with,i’m guessing,seedings being involved looks like an almost sure loss.Guess you can figure what I think the importance of wednesday’s game is.
We won’t lose to Xavier.
Here are the Vegas Odds of Charlotte making the tournament per rpiforecast.com:
100.00% Duke X
100.00% North Carolina
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Georgetown
[B]100.00% Xavier X[/B]
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Texas
100.00% Arizona
100.00% Connecticut
100.00% Stanford
100.00% Butler X
100.00% Louisville
100.00% Notre Dame
100.00% Clemson
100.00% Washington St.
100.00% Texas A&M
99.99% St. Mary’s
99.99% Kansas St.
99.99% Wisconsin X
99.98% Arkansas
99.94% Marquette
99.93% Vanderbilt
99.89% Southern California
99.82% Pittsburgh
99.71% Nevada Las Vegas X
99.71% Ohio St.
99.52% West Virginia X
[B]99.45% Rhode Island[/B]
99.22% Gonzaga X
97.27% Mississippi
95.58% Baylor
95.08% Brigham Young
94.78% Florida
94.60% Purdue
[B]92.57% Massachusetts [/B]
92.20% Oklahoma
90.70% South Alabama X
[B]90.03% Dayton[/B]
79.70% Illinois St.
79.62% Mississippi St.
74.89% Davidson X
74.82% Maryland
69.16% Miami FL
This is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up.
Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.
65.46% Houston
65.11% Virginia Commonwealth X
53.02% Syracuse
50.79% George Mason
[B]45.79% Saint Joseph’s[/B]
43.09% Kent St.
41.36% Western Kentucky
39.02% Oregon
36.67% North Carolina St.
34.54% UAB
34.12% Oral Roberts
28.43% Creighton
27.12% Ohio
11.88% Kentucky
11.31% Southern Illinois
9.50% Stephen F. Austin X
5.93% New Mexico
4.86% Florida St.
4.17% California
2.89% Texas Tech
2.14% Wright St.
1.78% Akron X
1.63% Sam Houston St.
0.73% Utah St.
0.70% IUPUI X
0.68% Georgia Tech
[B]0.38% Duquesne[/B]
0.29% San Diego St.
0.16% Missouri
0.14% Utah
[B][COLOR=DarkGreen]0.13% Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
0.09% Siena X
0.05% Miami OH
0.05% Boise St.
0.04% Arizona St.
0.02% Cornell X
0.01% Virginia Tech
0.01% Cincinnati
0.01% UC Santa Barbara
0.01% Rider
0.01% Nevada
A 0.13% chance. That is the same odds as a mother not surviving childbirth (according to google). So, yeah, it’s a slim possibility right now. A win vs. Xavier will obviously improve the odds … but a loss could drop us from the bubble once and for all.
Here are the Vegas Odds of Charlotte making the tournament per rpiforecast.com:100.00% Duke X
100.00% North Carolina
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Georgetown
[B]100.00% Xavier X[/B]
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Texas
100.00% Arizona
100.00% Connecticut
100.00% Stanford
100.00% Butler X
100.00% Louisville
100.00% Notre Dame
100.00% Clemson
100.00% Washington St.
100.00% Texas A&M
99.99% St. Mary’s
99.99% Kansas St.
99.99% Wisconsin X
99.98% Arkansas
99.94% Marquette
99.93% Vanderbilt
99.89% Southern California
99.82% Pittsburgh
99.71% Nevada Las Vegas X
99.71% Ohio St.
99.52% West Virginia X
[B]99.45% Rhode Island[/B]
99.22% Gonzaga X
97.27% Mississippi
95.58% Baylor
95.08% Brigham Young
94.78% Florida
94.60% Purdue
[B]92.57% Massachusetts [/B]
92.20% Oklahoma
90.70% South Alabama X
[B]90.03% Dayton[/B]
79.70% Illinois St.
79.62% Mississippi St.
74.89% Davidson X
74.82% Maryland
69.16% Miami FLhis is the end of the at-large bids. If any team below steals an automatic bid from a team above, this line will move up.
Alternatively, if a team above this line steals an automatic bid from a team below, this line moves down.65.46% Houston
65.11% Virginia Commonwealth X
53.02% Syracuse
50.79% George Mason
[B]45.79% Saint Joseph’s[/B]
43.09% Kent St.
41.36% Western Kentucky
39.02% Oregon
36.67% North Carolina St.
34.54% UAB
34.12% Oral Roberts
28.43% Creighton
27.12% Ohio
11.88% Kentucky
11.31% Southern Illinois
9.50% Stephen F. Austin X
5.93% New Mexico
4.86% Florida St.
4.17% California
2.89% Texas Tech
2.14% Wright St.
1.78% Akron X
1.63% Sam Houston St.
0.73% Utah St.
0.70% IUPUI X
0.68% Georgia Tech
[B]0.38% Duquesne[/B]
0.29% San Diego St.
0.16% Missouri
0.14% Utah
[B][COLOR=DarkGreen]0.13% Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
0.09% Siena X
0.05% Miami OH
0.05% Boise St.
0.04% Arizona St.
0.02% Cornell X
0.01% Virginia Tech
0.01% Cincinnati
0.01% UC Santa Barbara
0.01% Rider
0.01% NevadaA 0.13% chance. That is the same odds as a mother not surviving childbirth (according to google). So, yeah, it’s a slim possibility right now. A win vs. Xavier will obviously improve the odds … but a loss could drop us from the bubble once and for all.
Or, we would survive child birth? Right?
we either have to:
- win out or
- win the A10 tournament
Win out and not choke in first game of A-10 Tourney. Too may bad losses offsetting the good ones and we just don’t have the RPI/SOS to warrant an at-large. There’s some room (not much) to improve as far as that goes but I still think we’d need to run the table through the regular season or win the A-10 Tournament for the auto-bid.
[QUOTE=ninersfan99;294071]I am only assuming, but would like the opinion of people who follow the team and “system” a lot more then me. I am assuming that a loss to Xavier and our NCAA chances are gone (unless we win the A-10 Tourney), am I correct?[/QUOTE]
I still think we have a shot at an at-large if the following happens:
Win against: @Fordham, @Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, and George Washington
Win one of these: Xavier, @Temple, @Rhode Island
Win two games in A-10 Tourney
Should put our RPI in mid-40’s with 22-11 record
[B][COLOR=DarkGreen][SIZE=7]OR[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B]
Win against: @Fordham, @Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, and George Washington
Win two of these: Xavier, @Temple, @Rhode Island
Win one game in A-10 Tourney
Should put our RPI in mid-40’s with 22-11 record
Now, the Committee selecting us will still be a bit of a longshot with a mid-40’s RPI and in the #7 RPI conference. Based on today’s RPI, we would have 8-9 wins over Top 100 RPI teams. We would also have 2 losses against teams that are 250+ in the RPI. As inconsistent as we have been on the road this year, I don’t see us winning more than 2 of our remaining road games. That would mean we would have to win ALL of our remaining home games to reach the 22 win plateau. It’s a longshot, but if we get hot and play up to our potential it can happen. If you look at the teams in the 41-50 RPI range right now, you will see who we will competing against for an at-large should we play well enough to get that high in the RPI. Can you say BCS?
I still think we have a shot at an at-large if the following happens:Win against: @Fordham, @Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, and George Washington
Win one of these: Xavier, @Temple, @Rhode Island
Win two games in A-10 Tourney
Should put our RPI in mid-40’s with 22-11 record[B][COLOR=DarkGreen][SIZE=7]OR[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B]
Win against: @Fordham, @Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, and George Washington
Win two of these: Xavier, @Temple, @Rhode Island
Win one game in A-10 Tourney
Should put our RPI in mid-40’s with 22-11 recordNow, the Committee selecting us will still be a bit of a longshot with a mid-40’s RPI and in the #7 RPI conference. Based on today’s RPI, we would have 8-9 wins over Top 100 RPI teams. We would also have 2 losses against teams that are 250+ in the RPI. As inconsistent as we have been on the road this year, I don’t see us winning more than 2 of our remaining road games. That would mean we would have to win ALL of our remaining home games to reach the 22 win plateau. It’s a longshot, but if we get hot and play up to our potential it can happen. If you look at the teams in the 41-50 RPI range right now, you will see who we will competing against for an at-large should we play well enough to get that high in the RPI. Can you say BCS?
I used the current records to calculate where our RPI would be if we won out the rest of the season. Keep in mind, that this does not reflect the outcomes of any games other than ours. If we were to win out the rest of the season, we’d be at 22-8 entering the A10 tournament. Our RPI would be at #40 (again, using the current RPI numbers).
We would have to win out at this point, I think even with a win against Xavier we would need two wins in the A-10 tournament (thats with a win against Xavier by the way). The bad losses hurt more then some realize despite some of the good wins we have had. NIT for this team isn’t the end of the world by the way.
If we lose, then it puts us in a place where we would have to win the A-10 tournament.
[QUOTE=wayton5646;294080]we either have to:
- win out or
- win the A10 tournament[/QUOTE]
Yep. Neither of which is likely to happen.
[QUOTE=cptn319;294094]I used the current records to calculate where our RPI would be if we won out the rest of the season. Keep in mind, that this does not reflect the outcomes of any games other than ours. If we were to win out the rest of the season, we’d be at 22-8 entering the A10 tournament. Our RPI would be at #40 (again, using the current RPI numbers).[/QUOTE]
Are we mid-40’s with the 22-11 record? Just curious, as I looked at teams with a .667 winning percentage currently with a strength of schedule near what I think ours will be. Miami was the team I used last week, but they are now one win ahead of that.
Not a real big fan of the title of this thread, so assuming we beat Xavier…
we can afford to lose 1, maybe 2 (1 in the regular season) more games, any loss now can only come from a team with a solid RPI
but we have to:
finish in the top 4 of the conference
make it to the championship of the a10 tournament
get our RPI in the 50s
Anything can happen with this team and so far it has this season, so I wouldn’t put it past this team to run the table.
Are we mid-40's with the 22-11 record? Just curious, as I looked at teams with a .667 winning percentage currently with a strength of schedule near what I think ours will be. Miami was the team I used last week, but they are now one win ahead of that.
Honestly, that’s hard to say. It will depend on:
- Which three games we lose (and where)
- Which teams we play in the tournament.
I would imagine that a 22-11 record would put us somewhere in the low-to-mid 50s.
[QUOTE=cptn319;294103]Honestly, that’s hard to say. It will depend on:
- Which three games we lose (and where)
- Which teams we play in the tournament.
I would imagine that a 22-11 record would put us somewhere in the low-to-mid 50s.[/QUOTE]
Gotcha. What did our end-of-regular-season strength of schedule turn out to be when you simmed it out?
Gotcha. What did our end-of-regular-season strength of schedule turn out to be when you simmed it out?
Based on current records and current RPI/SOS numbers, our SOS would be in the 63-65 range if we won out the regular season.
If we finish 2nd in the A10 regular season, and have a good A10 tournament, we are in, no need to worry about rpi, dui, vpi, square root of pi etc… Hey if you are .500 in the ACC don’t you get an automatic bid (ha ha), well we have that also this year, at 2-2.
How about we just go out and get the job done, one game at a time and not worry about making the tournament. If this team looks that far ahead the we are bound to f*#k up along the way (look back to the great win at Clemson and those mediocre losses to Tulsa, Monmoth, spell?).