I think the break away league will be just fine. They will make money. The question is what is their metric is for success.
IMO the networks THINK they can basically keep the entire college sports audience but focus it on those top 30-40 schools. In other words the state of NC would basically all adopt chapel hill. Itās a very professional model view.
I think if thatās their expectation and itās not going to work. Iām gonna quit watching college sports before I adopt chapel hill. A duke person isnāt going to follow chapel hill.
Likely what happens is the schools left out will form their own entity and that entity will find success at being the alternative. Of course that is heavily weighted on getting a decent media deal, but assuming they get it the remnants will have more geographical foes and rivalries.
I think the networks are completely miss reading what makes college sported special. They are going to turn the super top league into just an NFL that will ultimately not create the revenue they think it will
This will happen IF and only if the left behinds are smart and work together to create regional leagues and donāt stick their nose in the air and say they canāt be in a conference with certain schools.
Example.
Duke, Wake, Va Tech and West Virginia refuse to regionalize with Charlotte, ECU, App, ODU, JMU and Marshall and Liberty.
Holy crap Batman! Thatās 11 FBS schools within 6 hours drive of each other!
You keep saying this but there simply isnāt any basis for it. Is everyone in NC currently a Panthers fan? Are all of the current P5 fans in North Carolina Duke, WF, NCSU or UNC fans?
Again, all of what you mention is already happening. Thereās already non-UNC fans in NC. Thereās already seperate divisions, with regional rivalries. Mostly what is trying to happen is that the schools at the top are trying to split the already existing revenue with less schools. They simply do not care what happens to fans of schools like Charlotte. Just look at the decision for the NCAA settlement, an estimated 90% of the funds will go to P5 athletes.
I would never say that itās impossible for a new division of the leftovers to surpass the old guard. But I will say there isnāt a precedent for it. Itās going to be very difficult for something new to surpass an already existing 80% market share.
The NFL has their markets and built their fanbases in their markets. I have no doubt thatās the plan. The absolute desire of the super league will be speed up the consolidation of fanbases. The networks donāt want a fragmented market. That means more money. Yes they want to split current earnings between fewer schools but their growth target is basically growing the super league fanbases. So they want most NC ppl tk become chapel hill fans, but itās ok with them being uga or bama or Michigan fans.
And yes there is no precedence for what is happening but it is the continuation of the current path. I guess itās possible for the leftovers to be more successful, I donāt think that will happen though. It think they will find decent success though unless they get locked out of media channels and I think the super league will make a ton of money but I think they are underestimating the connection many people have for their existing schools and that the lack of consolidation of the fanbase and the markets will not lead to the growth market they think hope and expect.
I think P4 schools might have 80% market share, but strip away the fanbases of say wake forest gt vt and itās not going to be 80%. Those schools have smaller fan bases - not big enough to split earnings with but big enough that combined they will put a dent in that 80%. Those are the fans the super league will really hope to peel away.
FWIW, would think the creation of a super league results in wholesale realignment among those left behind, with an emphasis on proximity. And let the SL create their own governing structure etc.
Anyway, definitely agree - Duke + Liberty will never happen.
Yeah the leftovers realigned and rebuilding rivalries will go a long way in making it successful. What made college sports special in the first place was proximity to rival fanbases and schools.
There is a lot of bad things that could happen if the P4 break away and there are a lot of good things that could happen.
My gut feeling is that if it happens, the G5 and upper tier FCS (Dakotas, Montana, Albany, Idaho, Furman etc.) will reorganize into geographic conferences.
That will result in more drivable games. More fun.
And hopefully an all access playoff like FCS today.
The precedence I was referring to was that of the ābiggerā league failing, and the other leagues surpassing them. I was not referring to consolidation. I think everyone agrees that is happening. It sounds like maybe you donāt agree in the it will āfailā theory. Itās hard to tell bacause on the one hand you say the new division will be ultra successful, but on the other hand you say that wonāt be able to get the market growth they expect.
You keep forgetting that I donāt subsrcibe to the it will only be 30ish teams theory.
Over all I think youāre giving them way too much credit for having all of this planned out. They donāt. I heard an interview with Jim Boeheim just yesterday. When discussing the UConn/Hurley situation he mentioned how he thinks Hurley made the right decision. He also said, although, I have no idea what the landscape will be like in 5 years, no one does, not even the people making the decisions.
Youāre also giving the networks too much persuasion. The unviversities have the leverage. If for some reason ESPN said we will only do a deal with 35 teams. The schools absolutely have the leverage to say, screw you, we want 40 so weāre going to Fox.
Thatās simply incorrect. Yes, it will be multiple tv partners (it is already that way). But it will be with multiple partners because that it was what the schools want, because that brings them more money. If it was what the networks want, they would control all of the programming and not āshareā with another network.