Niners Break Into top 100 RPI

#93 per Team Rankings.com this morning. They have our power rating at 54.

Rankings link

Broken link Upstate…

Here you go… http://teamrankings.com/ncb/

Sagarine Ratings have us at #49 this morning. Isn’t it ironic…don’t ya think!!!

Updated Sagarine Ratings

Pomeroy has the 49ers at 109 RPI and 250 SOS today. Conference USA moved up to 9th ahead of the Mid-American Conference and just behind the Missouri Valley Conference.

His Pomeroy ranking is 46th and currently predicts a 19-8 record. :frowning:

[i]Originally posted by HP49er[/i]@Dec 30 2004, 04:19 PM [b] His Pomeroy ranking is 46th and currently predicts a 19-8 record. :( [/b]
Not saying it can't happen as crappy as we have looked at times, but I have a hard time believing we'll drop 6 more games. Assuming we beat the bottom tier teams, that would mean we'd have to lose at UAB, at Cincy, at Marquette, vs Cincy, vs Louisville and either against DePaul or Memphis. I'd like to think we'd win half of those games but it's not out of our character to get those other losses against teams we should definitely take care of.

I’m thinking more like 21-6 and on the bubble unless we reach the CUSA final or win it.

If we are 21-6 you can put it in the books…we’re in.

[i]Originally posted by JKniner[/i]@Dec 30 2004, 09:27 PM [b] If we are 21-6 you can put it in the books...we're in. [/b]
May very well be but don't be surprised if we're one of the last 4 in and with a crappy seeding. Just ask Memphis about having over 20 wins and still getting snubbed by the committee. "20" is not always the magic number that many people claim it to be. But if a couple of those wins come against teams like Cincy, L'ville or Marquette, it will certainly help out.

About Memphis not getting in, they were like 20-8, with no OOC road wins.
They played 17 home games, 3 nuetrals and 8 conference road games.
They won 1 game against a top 50 and had 3 losses vs. >100.
They also got waxed in the first round of the tourney by Houston if I recall correctly.

If we can win games against UC, UL, UAB, Marquette, we’re fine.
If we go 11-5 with losses against those 4 teams(5 games), we are in trouble.
I’d like us to go 3-2 in those 5 and then give up a loss or two elsewhere (at SLU)

Tintin

I agree that our resume would be somewhat more attractive that Memphis had that year. But the bottom line is that if you’re going to rely on the “20 win” myth then you damn well better have a few teams in that column that stand out. Right now, Indiana is the only one and as of 12/30, that’s on name recognition alone.

We HAVE to grab some wins against the top 4 (excluding us of course) teams of CUSA. Beating up on TCU, ECU, Saint Louis, etc. isn’t going to get us in.

[i]Originally posted by ninermike[/i]@Dec 30 2004, 08:18 AM [b] #93 per Team Rankings.com this morning. They have our power rating at 54. [/b]
That is not an RPI formula site. We are 148 still using Palm's site, which is always the most accurate.

Our RPI will go up as we play better conference teams, a loss @ UAB will do more for our RPI than any of our OOC wins. Getting too wrapped up in the numbers this early in the year. We will get 2-4 wins out of our big games left(UAB, Marquette, Cinci x2, Lville, Memphis) and those wins will do enough for our RPI that it will all come down to simple W’s and L’s when it’s tourny time.

And the tournament seeds are done by humans, not computers. The selection comitee came out in the preseason and made a statement about how the perceived influence of the RPI on their decisions is SERIOUSLY overrated. Just one of the many many factors they take into account when selecting the teams. If we are sitting with 20+ wins(3+ of those against NCAA locks), we will be in.

And a point that has been definitely lost on this board: We are sitting tied for 3rd in CUSA for overall record(and one of the teams we are tied with is So. Miss). We are by no means struggling right now, we have played well enough to win all of our games. Our schedule has been weak, but we all knew it was 3 months ago. We might keep playing just well enough to win our games(we will let some slip like we did against Rutgers and Bama, but if we keep winning 80%+ of our games, we will be just fine).

[b]the RPI on their decisions is SERIOUSLY overrated.[/b]

If so then why is it that I think only one team with an RPI over 48 has ever got an at-large bid. Don’t forget, the Committee created the rpi and have always down played it’s role, however past committee members have said different.

[b]Our RPI will go up as we play better conference teams[/b]

Just as it will go down as we play the even greater number of terrible conference teams. It works both ways.

We need to beat the top cusa teams to have a chance.

[b]If so then why is it that I think only one team with an RPI over 48 has ever got an at-large bid. Don't forget, the Committee created the rpi and have always down played it's role, however past committee members have said different.[/b]

Because the RPI is just a statistical representation of what a team has done all season long. I’m not trying to argue the RPI’s overall importance, because it’s just wins and losses put into a computer to spit out a number. My point is that it does all come down to W’s and L’s. We can’t finish with an RPI over 60 for sure, but it’s December 30 and we are already concerned about the RPI. When it’s all said and done we will be in the top 40 if we do what we did last year and win some big games but drop some stupid ones as well.

[b]Just as it will go down as we play the even greater number of terrible conference teams. It works both ways.

We need to beat the top cusa teams to have a chance.[/b]


Well the terrible team’s RPI will raise when they play the good conference teams, ect ect. We do have to beat some of the top teams in the CUSA, but how is that different than any other year? We always need to beat some good teams, and we also seem to do that.

I guess I just don’t understand why this is a big deal. We need to beat some good teams to get into the NCAA tourny, who would have guessed? In other breaking news we need to shoot better FTs, win 19-24 games this year and Clay Aiken went to school here.

[i]Originally posted by 49erpi[/i]@Dec 31 2004, 12:16 AM [b] If so then why is it that I think only one team with an RPI over 48 has ever got an at-large bid. [/b]
PI,

There have been 25 teams get at-large bids since 1994 with an RPI north of 48.

I think you were thinking of only a couple of teams getting an at-large bid with a RPI over 64. It’s happened 3 times: Minnesota in 1995 (RPI=66), New Mexico in 1999 (RPI=74), and Air Force last year (RPI=70)

I’m having trouble with Cincinnati at #35 with an SOS of 245. Figure that one out.

Marquette, 10-1, 27 RPI, 99 SOS
Cincinnati, 11-0, 35 RPI, 245 SOS
Alabama Birmingham, 8-3, 42 RPI, 89 SOS
Louisville, 8-2, 44 RPI, 75 SOS
DePaul, 7-3, 62 RPI, 77 SOS
Houston, 8-5, 65 RPI, 82 SOS
Texas Christian, 8-4, 67 RPI, 87 SOS
Charlotte, 9-2, 108 RPI, 258 SOS
East Carolina, 3-7, 142 RPI, 26 SOS
Memphis, 7-6, 167 RPI, 134 SOS
South Florida, 6-4, 199 RPI, 282 SOS
Southern Mississippi, 6-3, 244 RPI, 325 SOS
Saint Louis, 2-9, 291 RPI, 179 SOS
Tulane, 4-5, 318 RPI, 327 SOS