Playing for seed - WORST CASE or BEST CASE

49ers Basketball Forum 🏀
1

WORST, WORST CASE

I don’t even want to talk about it, but here it is. A #7 to #10 seed is likely, depending on how the committee feels.

Feb 19 @ Tulane - W
Feb 23 Memphis - L
Feb 26 Southern Miss - W
Mar 3 @ Louisville - L
Mar 5 @ South Florida - W

1st Round - W
2nd Round - L

Our record entering the tournament: 22-7.

WORST CASE

The way I see it, if we go 4-1 (losing at Louisville on Senior Day is not a “bad loss”), and win 2 or more games in the conference tournament, we could be looking at a #6 seed – but a #5 is probably out of the question.

Feb 19 @ Tulane - W
Feb 23 Memphis - W
Feb 26 Southern Miss - W
Mar 3 @ Louisville - L
Mar 5 @ South Florida - W

1st Round - W
2nd Round - W
Semis - L

Our record entering the tournament: 24-6.

BEST CASE

We run the table. Pure and simple. I think we’re looking at a #4 seed, maybe even a three, with the committee looking at hot teams with better seeds.

Feb 19 @ Tulane - W
Feb 23 Memphis - W
Feb 26 Southern Miss - W
Mar 3 @ Louisville - W
Mar 5 @ South Florida - W

1st Round - W
2nd Round - W
Semis - W
Championship - W

Our record entering the tournament: 27-4.

SEEDING

I looked this morning to find the composite record of seeds (i.e. #4 vs. #13 all-time.) If any of you Web hounds can find it, please post.

BOTTOM LINE

This year represents our season to finally break through to the second weekend of competition. Let’s break into the Sweet 16 and get to St. Louis!!

2

The Galen-Kelvin team got a 5 seed. I think this current team is more talented, but are they grittier? I wont settle for less than a 5. Now, lets get it done and keep making our run!

3

I think that unless we completely shoot ourselves in the feet, we’re no worse than a #7. I think we’re going to probably split between the Memphis/Louisville game and as much as I hate to say it, I’m feeling better about getting the win at Louisville more than I am the win here at home against a dangerous Memphis team. If we win out the regular season and were to even lose our first CUSA Tourney game, I still think we’re a # 5 seed. If we win out and reach the CUSA Final, we’re a #4. If we win out and win the CUSA Tournament, you can seriously start talking about a #3 seed. Our RPI would be in the teens likely, we’d have a slew of quality wins including many on the road, we will have won our last 12 or 13 straight games and we wouldn’t be denied.

Something tells me we lose one more regular season game and at least reach the finals in Memphis, if not win it all.

4

Don’t we get a bye in the first round of the tournament?

5

Top 4 seeds get byes.

6
[i]Originally posted by HomeinHalton[/i]@Feb 18 2005, 07:25 AM [b] I looked this morning to find the composite record of seeds (i.e. #4 vs. #13 all-time.) If any of you Web hounds can find it, please post. [/b]
Since seeding of teams began in 1985, here are the breakdowns thru 2004.

1 vs 16 - 80-0, 100%
2 vs 15 - 76-4, 95.0%
3 vs 14 - 67-13, 83.8%
4 vs 13 - 63-17, 78.8%
5 vs 12 - 54-26, 67.5%
6 vs 11 - 58-22, 72.5%
7 vs 10 - 44-36, 55.0%
8 vs 9 - 38-42, 47.5%

Here’s some info for your office pool picks. There have been 160 first round upsets based on seeds alone, averaging 8 per year. Last season, only 4 first round games were upsets, including the #8-#9 game of Charlotte and Texas Tech. :frowning: In 1989, all the #9 and #11 teams advanced to the second round. In 2002, 3 of the #12 seeds defeated the #5 seeds, the same with #10 over #7 teams in 1998. As might be expected 3 #9 seeds triumphed in 1992, 1996 and 2003. All 4 number #9 seeds advanced in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2001.

7

Thanks, HP!

8
[i]Originally posted by HomeinHalton[/i]@Feb 18 2005, 10:27 AM [b] Thanks, HP! [/b]
:)
9

What was Marquette’s seed in their F-4 year recently?

10

This is a really informative thread. I agree witht he worst case and good case scenarios, although I want to ask if we lose all five games and our first round cusa, are we in tournament(Double-Triple Worst Worst Worst scenario)? I don’t think so. And what if we lost to MEphis and Lousiville and one of the three bad teams we’re gonna play and 1st round cusa. Then we probably get our familiar 8/9 seed. I am excited about slection sunday. It is two and half weeks away MArch 13.

I will be satisfied with a sweet sixteen, but I really want an elite 8. Thats not to say this team isn’t capable of hanging up a title banner.

11
[i]Originally posted by 49er1[/i]@Feb 18 2005, 12:26 PM [b] What was Marquette's seed in their F-4 year recently? [/b]
3rd Seed

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/marq/mar03/129625.asp

12

It really depends where we end up after the tournament. After the tournament, there will be a clear #1 seed rep for the conference. At this point it looks like 4 teams have a shot at it Cards, us, Depaul, Memphis. ie., if Depaul or Memphis end up in 2nd in regular season and win conf. tournament, they could be the highest seed from CUSA.

The clear #1 rep, will get a 3 seed or maybe a 4. With the exception of the Cards, they could potentially end up a 2.

So bottom line we could end up with a 3 seed but no worse than a 7. Most probable is a 4 or 5.

13

The game that scares me the MOST is the last one we play. I feel like with a Sat. night to Thurs. night break we can beat Louisville. But with a plane ride from there to South Florida, and then a game that afternoon on THEIR senior day. . . thats scary. They arent a great team, but I can only imagine how tired our guys will be with such a short break.

14

Just keep winning. Everything else will take care of itself. :smiley: