If we beat Temple, and let’s say we go to something like 60 or 59 in the RPI and then lose to Xavier in the finals… what do you think? I know that’s cutting it as close as you can get for a bubble team, but it could happen right? Of course, all of the top seeded teams in all of the conference tournaments would have to win their championships so those at large bids don’t get eaten up.
I know, I know… we should just win the damn A-10 tourney.
According to the NCAA Dance Card, we are all but in and the A10 will have 3 bids if the season ended today. We are one of the “next 4 out”. He uses the actual criteria from the selection committee rules to determine his bids.
If St. Joe’s beats Xavier, they should be in according to the formula.
Nice way to see the bids without introducing the BCS bias exemplified by NITology and Bracketology.
He is very accurate too,
The Dance Card [COLOR=black]has missed on more than three spots in only one season (2007). Over the last 14 years, the Dance Card has correctly predicted [B]446 of the 478[/B] available at-large Tournament slots (or [B]93.3%[/B]).[/COLOR] Over the 8-year period (2000 through 2007) for which the Dance Card has been used since its initial development in 1999 (based on 1994 through 1999 data), it has correctly predicted [B]254 out of the 273[/B] available at-large Tournament slots ([B]93%[/B]).[/FONT] [COLOR=black][FONT=Arial]The formula’s best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicting [/FONT][/COLOR][B][FONT=Arial]33 of the 34[/FONT][/B][COLOR=black][FONT=Arial] available at-large Tournament slots ([/FONT][/COLOR][FONT=Arial]or[B] 97% accuracy[/B][COLOR=black]). [/COLOR][/FONT]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Arial]The Dance Card can only be as [I]accurate[/I] as the Selection Committees are [I]consistent[/I]; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees’ ([I]not[/I] the authors’) decision criteria. The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.[/FONT][/COLOR]