RPI Experiment

I created a spreadsheet to duplicate the RPI Formula in order to generate some “what if” scenerios with the RPI.

I was able to enter all data for Charlotte and our opponents as far as wins and losses at home/road/neutral. I backed into the opponents/opponents data by taking my 2 numbers (Charlotte’s and our opponents) and the final current RPI number via RealtimeRpi.com.

I did weight the road/home/neutral wins and losses properly
I did exclude the Charlotte games when calculating opponent’s W/L data

To test my spreadsheet I did the following example:

I altered the data needed for the Monmouth and Hofstra games
(added 1 road and 1 neutral win - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral loss to Charlotte’s data)
(added 1 road and 1 neutral loss - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral win to opponent’s data)

…and our RPI improved from the current .5381 to .5760 which would take us from our current ranking of #109 to #56

I also wanted to use this as a “look ahead” tool as well. It won’t be 100% accurrate since I back door into the opponents/opponents data but it should be very close.

By my calculations:

A win tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5505 range which would currently be good enough for the low-mid 90’s in ranking.

A loss tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5296 range which would currently be good enough for the 120ish ranking range.

Remember a Home win only counts as .6 of 1 win while a home loss counts as 1.4 of a loss!!!

We need a win…and it looks like we won’t jump much higher than the 90 range if we do.

Let’s see how good my spreadsheet is!!!

QFT!

I created a spreadsheet to duplicate the RPI Formula in order to generate some "what if" scenerios with the RPI.

I was able to enter all data for Charlotte and our opponents as far as wins and losses at home/road/neutral. I backed into the opponents/opponents data by taking my 2 numbers (Charlotte’s and our opponents) and the final current RPI number via RealtimeRpi.com.

I did weight the road/home/neutral wins and losses properly
I did exclude the Charlotte games when calculating opponent’s W/L data

To test my spreadsheet I did the following example:

I altered the data needed for the Monmouth and Hofstra games
(added 1 road and 1 neutral win - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral loss to Charlotte’s data)
(added 1 road and 1 neutral loss - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral win to opponent’s data)

…and our RPI improved from the current .5381 to .5760 which would take us from our current ranking of #109 to #56

I also wanted to use this as a “look ahead” tool as well. It won’t be 100% accurrate since I back door into the opponents/opponents data but it should be very close.

By my calculations:

A win tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5505 range which would currently be good enough for the low-mid 90’s in ranking.

A loss tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5296 range which would currently be good enough for the 120ish ranking range.

Remember a Home win only counts as .6 of 1 win while a home loss counts as 1.4 of a loss!!!

We need a win…and it looks like we won’t jump much higher than the 90 range if we do.

Let’s see how good my spreadsheet is!!!

I get .5495 with a win (not considering other games played tonight) and .5276 with a loss.

TR we should compare spreadsheets. Mine has been dead-on with realtimerpi.com for the last two weeks.

Frank: Jerry, are you a statistics major or something?
Jerry: Actually I am. Minoring in Hebrew science.
Frank: Well, I didn’t know that. Because you didn’t tell me. Now I look like a jackass.

You guys should post your spreadsheets on Google spreadsheets, then we can all make copies/play with them.

cptn sent me his spreadsheet, good lord it’s involved, he must love the niners to fill in all that. :smile:

[QUOTE=TRLeader;284867]I created a spreadsheet to duplicate the RPI Formula in order to generate some “what if” scenerios with the RPI.

I was able to enter all data for Charlotte and our opponents as far as wins and losses at home/road/neutral. I backed into the opponents/opponents data by taking my 2 numbers (Charlotte’s and our opponents) and the final current RPI number via RealtimeRpi.com.

I did weight the road/home/neutral wins and losses properly
I did exclude the Charlotte games when calculating opponent’s W/L data

To test my spreadsheet I did the following example:

I altered the data needed for the Monmouth and Hofstra games
(added 1 road and 1 neutral win - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral loss to Charlotte’s data)
(added 1 road and 1 neutral loss - subtracted 1 road and 1 neutral win to opponent’s data)

…and our RPI improved from the current .5381 to .5760 which would take us from our current ranking of #109 to #56

I also wanted to use this as a “look ahead” tool as well. It won’t be 100% accurrate since I back door into the opponents/opponents data but it should be very close.

By my calculations:

A win tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5505 range which would currently be good enough for the low-mid 90’s in ranking.

A loss tonight and adding St. Joe’s data to our opponent’s data, would put us in the .5296 range which would currently be good enough for the 120ish ranking range.

Remember a Home win only counts as .6 of 1 win while a home loss counts as 1.4 of a loss!!!

We need a win…and it looks like we won’t jump much higher than the 90 range if we do.

Let’s see how good my spreadsheet is!!![/QUOTE]

Wow… slow day at work? :biggrin:

cptn sent me his spreadsheet, good lord it's involved, he must love the niners to fill in all that. :smile:

LOL… cptn was a mathematics major, concentration in statistics… he loves to work with numbers… he also likes to refer to himself in third person.

clt alias?

You guys should post your spreadsheets on Google spreadsheets, then we can all make copies/play with them.

See if this works:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pe0EZNEQFdvlgYylfrwD6dA&hl=en

Sweet! So far so good…now just tell us where to make the changes to see the RPI adjust (I tried filling in some W’s on the OWP page but nothing changed).

Thanks btw!

Sweet! So far so good...now just tell us where to make the changes to see the RPI adjust (I tried filling in some W's on the OWP page but nothing changed).

Thanks btw!

Keep in mind that when you place Ws or Ls in any spot (or change a win to a loss or vice versa), you need to update the record accordingly (on the last tab). All of the formulas pull from the overall DI record.

I get .5495 with a win (not considering other games played tonight) and .5276 with a loss.

TR we should compare spreadsheets. Mine has been dead-on with realtimerpi.com for the last two weeks.

That’s a difference of .0020 on each side…pretty close!

Mine does NOT update opponents/opponents data (I back door into that after RealtimeRpi.com updates the final Rpi number)…so that may be the difference. Send me your email and I’ll send you my spreadsheet.

You guys should post your spreadsheets on Google spreadsheets, then we can all make copies/play with them.

WHat is that and how do you do it?

I’d be happy to…if I knew how.

If it’s not too much trouble, I’d be curious what our RPI would be if the Wake and Clemson wins and Monmouth and Hofstra losses were flipped. Kind of piggybacks off the thread 49er1 started.

[QUOTE=TRLeader;285107]WHat is that and how do you do it?

I’d be happy to…if I knew how.[/QUOTE]

Do you have a google account? Don’t have to have a gmail account, just a Google account.
If not, sign up on Google’s homepage.
Once you are in, look for “Documents” on the top (under More maybe…or go to docs.google.com)

You can create spreadsheets (and other documents) on there, then share them with friends, everyone, etc. You can allow only certain people the ability to edit them if you like. It’s just like emailing the spreadsheet around, but you don’t have to…you just point them to that site.

Once it’s there, then everyone/anyone can copy it and then download if they like or just modify it on their Google account. I figured since you guys did all the hard work, it’d be nice if you shared. =)

The cool thing is now we can all play with scenarios…like NLP just mentioned.

Thanks again cptn.

.5502, RPI of 91 at the moment. Nice predictions guys. Temple’s win over X is reflected in that updated number.

That's a difference of .0020 on each side...pretty close!

Mine does NOT update opponents/opponents data (I back door into that after RealtimeRpi.com updates the final Rpi number)…so that may be the difference. Send me your email and I’ll send you my spreadsheet.

Be careful with using the records listed on realtimerpi. I’ve had to e-mail them several times because they fail to list the final scores of some games-- which means the win or loss is not reflected in the records. They’ve been getting better, but the first message I sent them included SEVEN games that (most from November) that they had not finalized.

If it's not too much trouble, I'd be curious what our RPI would be if the Wake and Clemson wins and Monmouth and Hofstra losses were flipped. Kind of piggybacks off the thread 49er1 started.

The specific teams you beat or lose to have no bearing on the RPI. Only where (road vs home) the wins/losses come from. The RPI is strictly W/L percentages (and the W/L percentages of the teams you play) the only weighting occurs not by WHO you play but WHERE you play (home/road).

However, in your example…You would be exchanging:
Current Reality: WF & Clemson represent 1 home win (.6) and 1 Road win (1.4) Monmouth & Hofstra represent 1 neutral court loss (1) and a road loss (.6). Our net W/L percentage for these 4 games is - Net wins 2.0 against net losses of 1.6. Winning percentage of .5556 (2/3.6)

Your scenerio of WF & Clemson: 1 home loss (1.4) and 1 road loss (.6) swapped for Monmouth & Hofstra - 1 neutral win (1) and 1 road win (1.4) would yield the following net W/L percentage: Net wins 2.4 against net losses of 2.0. Winning percentage of .5455 (2.4/4.4)

The result would actually be about 7-8 spots further into the 90’s at this point. (97-99 range)

Your scenerio would result in a slightly LOWER RPI because of the lower net Win percentage…but not because of WHO we played and beat but WHERE the wins and losses came from (road vs home).

Make sense?

Be careful with using the records listed on realtimerpi. I've had to e-mail them several times because they fail to list the final scores of some games-- which means the win or loss is not reflected in the records. They've been getting better, but the first message I sent them included SEVEN games that (most from November) that they had not finalized.

I only use the final RPI number from this site…I get the W/L data from collegerpi.com. The records are better organized there.