RPI Projection - Next 4 Games

This spreadsheet is cool to play with so…for fun… I thought I would give us some RPI foresight to the next 4 games. We have 2 home games (Richmond and Xavier) and 2 Road games (Dayton & St Bonnie). Looks like we have 1 very tough game at home and a more winnable game at home… and a very tough game on the road and a more winnable game on the road.

So…I thought I would project tout he RPI based on the various scenarios that could play out. Now granted…the RPI projections here will not be close to 100% accurate because I cannot project what all of our opponents and opponent’s opponents will do over this time span but it still shows you how each scenario will affect the general movement of our RPI during this span of games.

Here you go…

Right now we are at an RPI of .5604 which is good for #74

What if…

Best Case:

  1. We win all 4 - RPI would increase to around .5834 which would put us in the 47-ish range

Most Realistic Case:
2. We win the ones we should (Richmond & St Bonnie) and lose the ones we should (Xavier & Dayton) - RPI would drop slightly to around the .5570 range which would put us around #77. Actually this RPI reflects a 1-1 road record and a 1-1 home record during this stretch regardless of who it is we beat…I just thought it would make more sense as beating who we should and losing to who we would be expected to.

Reasonable Expectaion:
3. We go 3-1 and lose only one road game (Dayton or St Bonnie) - RPI would improve to around .5721 in the range of #61-ish
4. We go 3-1 and lose only one home game (Richomnd or Xavier) - RPI would improve to around .5685 in the range of 65-ish

Hopefully Not:
5. We go 1-3 and win the 1 game at home (Richmond or Xavier) - RPI woul drop to .5446 to the #90’s
6. We go 1-3 and win the 1 game on the road (Dayton or St Bonnie) - RPI would drop to .5431 to the mid 90’s+

I won’t even project an 0-4 debacle since it wouldn’t matter to track RPI any longer at that point.

As long as we go 2-2…we won’t kill ourselves but a 3-1 or a 4-0 is needed to get our resume and RPI positioning where it needs to be to further discuss a possible at large berth.

I LOVE BEING ABLE TO PLAY WITH STATS!!!

I LOVE BEING ABLE TO PLAY WITH STATS!!!!!!!!!!

It is fun to play with the numbers, but projecting 4 games (over two weeks) in advance isn’t all that realistic or reliable. The biggest part of our RPI (75%) is out of our control. Too much can happen between now and then with our opponents and their opponents to make any reliable projection.

[QUOTE=cptn319;289287]It is fun to play with the numbers, but projecting 4 games (over two weeks) in advance isn’t all that realistic or reliable. The biggest part of our RPI (75%) is out of our control. Too much can happen between now and then with our opponents and their opponents to make any reliable projection.[/QUOTE]

always gotta be a realist around… :tongue:

It is fun to play with the numbers, but projecting 4 games (over two weeks) in advance isn't all that realistic or reliable. The biggest part of our RPI (75%) is out of our control. Too much can happen between now and then with our opponents and their opponents to make any reliable projection.

Uh yeah…I think I actually mentioned that at the beginning of the post.

[I][B]“Now granted…the RPI projections here will not be close to 100% accurate because I cannot project what all of our opponents and opponent’s opponents will do over this time span but it still shows you how each scenario will affect the general movement of our RPI during this span of games.”

[/B][/I]
This still gives a good idea of how much WE can affect our RPI based on how WE perform over the next 4 games considering the opponents we play and where the games are played.

Which is what most people are interested in and was the point of posting the information.

Uh yeah...I think I actually mentioned that at the beginning of the post.

[I][B]“Now granted…the RPI projections here will not be close to 100% accurate because I cannot project what all of our opponents and opponent’s opponents will do over this time span but it still shows you how each scenario will affect the general movement of our RPI during this span of games.”

[/B][/I]
This still gives a good idea of how much WE can affect our RPI based on how WE perform over the next 4 games considering the opponents we play and where the games are played.

Which is what most people are interested in and was the point of posting the information.

Wow… how about we tone the 'tude down about 3 notches… thanks.

I wasn’t attacking your calculations or your attempts to pump up Niners fans, although NOW I will point out that I got numbers different than you did, which could be more advantageous to us. I was merely pointing out that simply adding those games to our win/loss column would not accurately reflect how WE could help/hurt our RPI.

always gotta be a realist around... :tongue:

Sorry… it’s the statistician in me.

Uh yeah...I think I actually mentioned that at the beginning of the post.

[I][B]“Now granted…the RPI projections here will not be close to 100% accurate because I cannot project what all of our opponents and opponent’s opponents will do over this time span but it still shows you how each scenario will affect the general movement of our RPI during this span of games.”[/B][/I]

This still gives a good idea of how much WE can affect our RPI based on how WE perform over the next 4 games considering the opponents we play and where the games are played.

Which is what most people are interested in and was the point of posting the information.

For us top 45 by season’s end should be the goal, that might be good enough to get us in the tourney.

Wow... how about we tone the 'tude down about 3 notches... thanks.

Hello Pot…have you met Kettle?

Hello Pot...have you met Kettle?

Yes, I have. We had dinner earlier. :tongue:

Seriously… I wasn’t attacking you. If you felt that way, please accept my apology.

Yes, I have. We had dinner earlier. :tongue:

Seriously… I wasn’t attacking you. If you felt that way, please accept my apology.

Ditto

For us top 45 by season's end should be the goal, that might be good enough to get us in the tourney.

if we finish top 45 in rpi… bobby should get his own statue/shrine at the entrance to halton. call me a realist, but that ain’t happening.

I think we go 3-1 and possibly even 4-0
Richmond and St Bonnies should def be wins. Dayton is is missing there 2nd and 3rd best players, so there wont be a better time to beat them. Xavier at home will be the big test and our most important home game of the year.

that would be ridiculous

if we finish top 45 in rpi... bobby should get his own statue/shrine at the entrance to halton. call me a realist, but that ain't happening.

I wouldn’t call you a realist, I’d call you a pessimist.

[QUOTE=TRLeader;289286]Most Realistic Case:
2. We win the ones we should (Richmond & St Bonnie) and lose the ones we should (Xavier & Dayton) - RPI would drop slightly to around the .5570 range which would put us around #77. Actually this RPI reflects a 1-1 road record and a 1-1 home record during this stretch regardless of who it is we beat…I just thought it would make more sense as beating who we should and losing to who we would be expected to. [/QUOTE]
Dayton won’t be glued back together completely. So I wouldn’t say we [I]should[/I] lose to them… Besides, we do well in front of large crowds and last year’s team was able to beat them here and lost by only 3 in Dayton. And that my friend is [B]the truth[/B]!