Definitely weren’t going to get any at large bids due to Bonus Play. With the emphasis now on OOC scheduling, perhaps it will happen on an occasional basis.
C-USA didn’t produce any at-large teams the last to season because the Top 3 teams had an average KenPom of 101.67 the last two seasons. We had 3 teams in the KenPom Top 65 the year before Bonus Play. The real reason bonus play was a dead end was the astronomical cost of short notice travel arrangements.
While this has been hashed to death, it wasn’t the only reason or positive effect of bonus play. Another was that you avoided tanking the top teams’ NET at the end of the season, hopefully leading to better seeding and, ultimately, a win or two (even if your NET ranking didn’t improve, holding it steady or only dropping a few spots rather than 30 spots from playing the bottom teams was a good idea - i.e., in the absence of bonus play, how bad would it have gotten if you didn’t play the other top teams). Mathematically, there was no real downside to bonus play - it could have three big outcomes: (1) Top outcome: an additional bid; (2) Second best outcome: better seeding than would have occurred in the alternative; (3) Worst outcome: no change in output. I think we saw #2, but there isn’t really a negative outcome from the mathematical perspective.
The disadvantage to bonus play was short term travel arrangements and ticket sales. That’s a legitimate reason for nixing the idea, but the measure of bonus play wasn’t a zero sum, extra bid or failure, scenario.
“With the goals to improve seeding and increase the number of teams that advance to the postseason, we viewed this as a great opportunity to enhance our top teams’ resumes…” C-USA Commissioner Judy MacLeod
I am not sure it lead to better seeding. C-USA seeding in the NCAA tournament the last 3 years, 12 seed 2017, 13 seed 2018, and 14 seed 2019 (bonus play). Granted A LOT of different factors go into seeding.
Personally, I don’t really have a strong feeling positive or negative towards bonus play. I liked the idea of trying to do something to improve the conference and try to increase bids or improve seeds in the tournament. It may have ultimately worked out after a few more years.
Charlotte shocked a lot of folks in the Conference USA basketball world with their fourth-place finish last season. After all, the 49ers were picked 12th in the preseason poll. The success of the program is in large part thanks to reigning freshman of the year Jahmir Young . Young averaged 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, good enough for a third-team nod as well. Jordan Shepherd is also returning after averaging 14 points and 4.1 assists per game and earning his own spot on the third-team. Incoming three-star power forward Jared Garcia should also provide a boost.
Charlotte’s experience playing in the conference’s top level of bonus play last season should help them. They went just 2-2 during that stretch, but it showed them what they need to do to take the next step in competing for a conference title. That should give the 49ers and their fans all the confidence in the world heading into 2020-21.