You have perfected patience at this point. Whatās another year?
I was part of the crowd that stopped traffic on 49 when we advanced to the final four, good memories!
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We havenāt earned the benefit of the doubt, and most prognosticstors arenāt going to do legit research on our portal class. Theyād rather hype ecu, despite the fact that their defense should be awful. Our talent level looks solid. We will see i supose
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The nice thing about being picked at the very bottom is that itās all up from there. Seriously, once the actual games start, the preseason speculation is forgotten. Iāve seen some really bad teams. To me, this Charlotte doesnāt look like a really bad team. Once the actual games start, we will know where they stand. For me, the most important thing is that they improve each week.
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At Ohio, QBs were typically dual-threat QBs. Because of that, I have found that the ESPN QBR rating is a better indicator of their performance than Pass Efficiency ratings, because QBR factors in running as well. Here are some QBR ratings:
Recent Charlotte QBs:
2024 Purdie 29.5
2023 Ivey 20.2
2022 Reynolds 61.5
2021 Reynolds 53.3
2020 Reynolds 46.8
2019 Reynolds 67.3
Recent Ohio QBs
2024 Navarro 68.5
2023 K. Rourke 59.7
2022 K Rourke 73.6
2021 K Rourke 51.3
2020 K Rourke 47.0
2019 N. Rourke 75.3
2018 N. Rourke 77.6
2017 N. Rourke 73.5
Current Charlotte QBs
2022 Wilcke 27.7
2023 Loftis - 62.1 (played a lot in 4 games 68.5 v. Troy; 81.3 v. Pitt; 67.2 v. UVA; 70.3 v. UNC)
2023 Harrell 49.3 (was 49.4 in the one game he played a lot, against WVU)
2024 Harrell 18.9 (was 60.7 in the one game he played a lot, against Charlotte)
Conclusions:
- About 50 is adequate, but for a really outstanding QB, you want 60+, or better, 70+
- With proper coaching, players improve as they get more PT. Note the improvement of K. Rourke at Ohio, or Reynolds at Charlotte
- Either Harrell or Loftis are starting in the 50-60 range, and as they improve, either could end up in the 60+ range. With Wilcke, itās harder to know, as there are no QBR ratings for JUCO, but itās certainly possible that he could also be 50+.
- All three Charlotte QBs appear to be at least adequate, and all have the potential of becoming excellent.
- Iām not worried at all about the QB position.
- After 7 years, Ohio MAC foes were glad to finally not face a QB named āRourkeā, but it didnāt work out for them. AAC foes are glad to face some unknown QB at Charlotte. I have a hunch that it wonāt work out as well for them as they expect.
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You are an absolute wellspring of info Carl.
Thanks for the post.
I really like those 2023 #s for Loftis, and I like that he started a bunch of games that year. Without being able to actually see practice (kind of importantā¦ Lol), he has the edge in my very limited viewpoint.
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https://x.com/Hunter_Bailey45/status/1953859279485595889
More from Albinā¦
I really hope he fixes this. It is a problem that has lingered here through multiple coaching regimes.
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Refreshing having a coach sound like an actual coach knowing what heās talking about instead of one sounding like a complete moron.
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I thought I would clarify one thing. In my above QBR data, how a QB is used in the offense also goes into how the rating ends up. The fact that both Ivey and Purdie were so low indicates to me that the offense was probably part of the problem, though I have no way to know if it was a conception issue, an O-line issue, play selection, or something else.
See that Ohio AD headed back to the SEC.
Carl if you want to see bad football, go to youtube and pick either the 2024 or 2023 USF vs Charlotte games.
But yes it does sound like we are in much better shape with the QBs and how the offense is handled.
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It does not take much to have a better defense either
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clt adds that albin is a voter
I watched highlights from the 2024 USF game, as I couldnāt find a whole game. I saw some good things and bad things offensively. The defense, however, was horrible. Itās bad when an opposing RB can take a handoff, and run untouched into the endzone, and even worse when they do it more than once. I checked the two final games, and while Charlotte won them, they still gave up 27 each to FAU and UAB, more than their average points scored, so it appears that defense continued to be an issue even after the coaching change.
I can tell from the portal transfers that there was a lot of talent on the defense last year, so it wasnāt a talent issue. There must have been some problems with either the schemes, or with teamwork. I donāt know if there will be as much defensive talent this year as last year, but Iām confident that the schemes will be sound, and teamwork will be good. That means that other teams will score some points, but hopefully will not get nearly as many explosive plays.
My personal opinion is that winning football is more about defense than offense. If Charlotte can hold other teams to an average of 25 or less for the season, it will be a very good season. If they can hold other teams to an average of 30 or less, it will be a decent season. If they hold other teams to 35 or less, they will still win some games. If they give up over 35, wins will be hard to come by. Last year Charlotte gave up an average of 42 points in losses, and 25 in wins, for an overall average of 35.1, and never gave up less than 20. They did not win any game where they gave up 30 or more. To make progress this year, that has to improve.
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I went back and looked at Ohio games against P4 teams over the last 20 years. They were 0-15 when giving up more than 30 points. They were 1-7 when giving up 22-30 points. When giving up 21 points or less, however, they were 5-3, including a 4-0 record when holding the P4 team to under 17 points.
P4 teams almost always have very good defenses, and Iām sure that UNC and Georgia will both have one. I believe Charlotte can put a few points on the board, maybe 14, maybe even 20. To win, Charlotteās defense is going to have to play very, very well.
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https://x.com/Hunter_Bailey45/status/1954995061558743299
Last 3 games of the season are all on that list. We need to start strong.