With St.Louis looking to be competitive in the A-10 standings at #5, and there already being five other teams (including us) as prospects… could we possibly see 7 teams from the A-10 in the NCAA tournament?
Saint Louis’ only chance at dancing is winning the A10 Tournament, they’re still gonna win games against the top 6, but they are too far behind in RPI to be a factor.
The Bills should land in the 5-8 range, get a home game and advance to Atlantic City. They can play with anybody, split with Richmond, took us to OT and beat Dayton, so winning A10 Title is not out of the question. But should that happen we won’t have 5, let alone 7 teams in the tournament.
Half the league will not dance.
We will get 4, maybe 5.
You are thus branded…A NEGATIVE POSTER!
indeed, the witch hunt may come after me…
hell will freeze over before 7 of 14 A10 teams dance.
I do believe that we will be one of the top 4 teams when it all shakes out though. Before the season began I predicted around 18 totals wins and an NIT… looks like we have a great chance to far exceed those expectations.
I don’t see 6, and we’re certainly not assured of being one of the 5 yet.
I don’t see 6, and we’re certainly not assured of being one of the 5 yet.[/quote]
If 6 teams are in the top 40- which is very possible, then they all dance. Book it. All 6 teams had either a killer OOC or conf record + top 50 wins.
7? Impossible. If there is a spoiler in A city, somebody is heartbroken. Any noise StL makes now is meaningless. They made their move too late.
[quote=“action49er, post:3, topic:22446”]Half the league will not dance.
We will get 4, maybe 5.[/quote]
Every expert is saying 6 right now. Not sure how you come up with 4. Its 100% 5 or 6.
If anyone not in the top 5 wins in Atlantic City, the league as a whole is probably screwed. I think 5 is likely and 6 is possible, if things so well for everyone, including us. Let a scrub win in AC and we may be down to 4 including the automatic bid with us looking in from outside.
Wonder what the odds are, with the strength at the top of the A-10, of a 6-last team winning the tournament? I’d say maybe 200:1.
I think you could argue that if Ellis had been available from day one, Mitchell hadn’t missed the Mo State game with an injury (only home loss thus far), and Reid hadn’t suffered an apparently season-ending concussion in the Chicago tourney, etc., that Saint Louis would be in a better position record- and RPI-wise. But they’re not and right now the Billikens are playing the role of “spoiler” and preparing for what should be a run in the NIT.
Of course, no arguing that Saint Louis is making things “interesting” in the A-10 race this season!
BTW, read on the SLU board that the Billikens are a finalist for the services of the highly touted 6-11 Rob Loe out of New Zealand. Either way, definitely see Majerus & Co. as a contender next year.
As far as this season, A-10 should get 5, with 6 still a very good possibility if the Flyers can avoid anymore meltdowns.
I know “experts” (loose term when it comes to making a prediction) but I just can’t see it. I think someone will shoot their foot either down the stretch or via a 1st game choke in AC. Just hoping it’s not us.
As mentioned in another thread, the A10 needs to have a good showing in the Big Dance, regardless of how many get in. Great opportunity to earn a lot of respect.
All I know is i’m rooting hard against every team that I perceive to be sharing the bubble with us and the rest of the A-10.That even included rooting for Miss. St. to lose last night to…GULP…Calamari’s team!
Best case scenario is that whoever is on the verge of falling off the bubble of the 6 win the A10 Tourney, and the teams with the most breathing room lose early to another of the 6 hopefuls. If the 2 teams that are on the bubble go to the A10 final, I could see us getting 6. 5 is more likely.
Yeah Lucky, me too. Has to be pretty meaningful circumstances for me to root FOR Calapari…but that’s what I found myself doing. Now that’s dedication!
But for those that say if a “scrub” wins in AC then we will only get 4 in is ridiculous. At least 4 of the 6 top teams (as it sits right now, not including SLU) will make THE tournament. That would mean if someone else wins in AC, we will still get 5. The only way we only get 4 in is if we have a couple fall off at the end and one of the top 4 wins in AC. Just don’t see it anyway.
Six is still a real possiblity but 7 is a little too optimistic even for me. In saying that, I do want to mention that SLU is really the only team you need to loose to that will not “hurt” much in the eyes of the commitee (especially at their place). If no one looses to anyone else besides them and each other, we will put the conference in good shape.
Before I get any grief about my positive words on SLU, let me add this. Yes, they certainly have lost some games that have hurt themselves and the conference and sit currently at 91 on the RPI list. But this is how they close out the season:
[table][tr][td][right][size=2] 02-17[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Rhode Island[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 19-5 (7-4)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]22[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]75-73 W - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][tr][td][right][size=2] 02-21[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] at[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Massachusetts[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 9-15 (4-7)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]180[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]62-61 W - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][tr][td][right][size=2] 02-24[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Xavier[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 17-7 (8-2)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]20[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]72-77 L - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][tr][td][right][size=2] 02-27[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Duquesne[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 12-12 (4-7)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]116[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]65-58 W - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][tr][td][right][size=2] 03-03[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Temple[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 20-5 (8-2)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]12[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]61-63 L - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][tr][td][right][size=2] 03-06[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] at[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][size=2]Dayton[/size][size=2] [/size][/td][td][right][size=2] 17-7 (6-4)[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2]33[/size][/right][/td][td][right][size=2] [/size][size=2]60-73 L - Scouting[/size][/right][/td][td][size=2] [/size][/td][/tr][/table]
4 of those games are at home and very good RPI’s to come. Their RPI will not be in the 90’s come season end. No, I don’t think they will run the table but I do think they could finish 2-2 against the top teams (which would be 3-2 including knocking off Dayton last week). This will likely only be good enough for a ticket to the NIT but will not be devastaing to the “top 6” as many suggest.
Losing to SLU isn’t devestating, it just hurts the chances of the conference getting more bids. Dayton has really crapped the bed by losing to SLU and SJU. SJU was an awful loss.
The best bet for 6 bids was for SLU to not crash the party. They are in the discussion now and could do some real damage. We could easily go from a 6 bid league to a 4 bid league because of SLU, especially if they steal a win on the road.
Won’t get any grief from me. As I pointed out above, this isn’t the same Saint Louis team that began the season - sans Ellis. Also, we’re talking about a team comprised exclusively of freshmen and sophomores, so there’s going to some hiccups along the way - like the loss to Missouri State when Mitchell sat out with the eye injury. I agree, they won’t run the table, but will end the season a better team than back in November and should be an (the?) A-10 rep in the NIT.
NCAA’s annual mock selection with selected media personnel:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/seth_davis/02/15/media-mock/index.html
Has 6 A10 teams in, with Charlotte as a 12 seed playing Pitt in San Jose.
I think the most you’ll see is 6 with 4-5 probably more realistic. 7? VERY doubtful.
[quote=“CharSFNiners, post:18, topic:22446”]NCAA’s annual mock selection with selected media personnel:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/seth_davis/02/15/media-mock/index.html
Has 6 A10 teams in, with Charlotte as a 12 seed playing Pitt in San Jose.[/quote]
This is what Seth has to say about the A-10 and his top 25. Not much love for the A-10 and I really hope the conf makes a lot of noise in the tournament this year. We all need it.
“I am still not ready to drink the Atlantic 10 Kool-Aid, but Temple did knock off Villanova a while back, and Xavier’s road win at Florida on Saturday was impressive, so those guys are back on the board. (Remember the Musketeers also nearly knocked off Butler in Hinkle Fieldhouse.)”
And in his analysis and breakdown of the mock bracket he has an A-10 team as one of his “overseeded” teams in EVERY REGION. Is it coincidence that he feels 4 teams from the same conf are overseeded? Or just more lack of respect for the conf? He has Richmond, RI, Temple and Dayton as overseeded. If we hadn’t been a 12 seed, I’m sure it would have been 5 from the same conf? Shows a lot of how the conf. is perceived in general (as we already know). Only way to change that, though, is with results…and consistancy