I think what we are thinking it wont be those 32. Illiniois doesn’t make the cut, neither does Vandy, etc. If a 20/30 team league forms it would be the cream of the crop of the current P5s. 4 leagues of 16 are basically the P5 we have today. Dump MD and Mizzou and pick up Clemson and FSU.
I think thats just being honest with ourselves. Us winning a title in football is unbelievably unrealistic given the structure. There is a difference though in being able to win one and having the path to win one. Having the path allows us all to dream and grow the program - hell UCF lived the dream. If the path is not there then the dream is dead. Or if you tilt the field so far against us - the dream is dead.
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Looks like B10 might be set for now.
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clt says things calming down is great for us. AAC will be a target for future expansion. we need to win.
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I see what you’re saying. I’m just saying it’ll be more than 20-30. Schools might want to leave, but they don’t typically get kicked out. If they’re “in”, they’re in. I’m of the belief that the Illinois’ of the world would want to stay, rather than volunteer to get relegated to a lower division.
I get that. But if we are going around saying that, we’re making their argument for them, for why we should be left out.
I don’t see any of the P5 schools getting kicked out.
I could see some deciding enough is enough and we are either
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Dropping down from FBS to FCS football (perhaps a Duke drops down and joins the big East for all sports except football).
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Dropping down the D2 or D3 to matchup with other very high end schools that compete at lower levels (MIT, U of Chicago)
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Start a new D1 FCS league like the IVY. (Duke, Vandy, Wake, Rice, Tulane, Northwestern, BC, Georgia Tech (just throwing names out).
Eventually some powerful people at these elite universities are going to get sick of this crap.
I think P5 schools will get left behind when their conferences are picked apart by the SEC or B10. If the current trend continues & those conferences poach the top remaining programs from the P12 & ACC then I could definitely see those 2 conferences breaking away for a football playoff. Some lucky bottom feeder programs that are already in those conferences will be included because they can’t really be kicked out. Honestly if they took Oregon from the P12 & FSU, Clemson & Miami from the ACC along with ND, that would pretty much consolidate the big time football programs left, down to 2 conferences.
10 or 15 years ago I would dismiss this post as silly. But these days I know more and more people that just don’t give a rats ass about sports and I think the number is growing exponentially.
I think that’s the part of the equation some of the big boys are missing
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If the elite programs want to restructure to drop the dead weight in their leagues they will. Whether they leave and form a new conference, or just buyout the Vandy type programs (essentially the same thing either way), if they want it and the money is there, they will. There will be timing issues, but aside from that, it’ll happen.
That’s how the weaker programs in the B1G and SEC will be pruned. The other leagues will just be picked apart.
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Here is a test case of conference realignment that I’m very curious to follow over the coming years.
James Madison University
They enjoyed great success in FCS football.
How are their fans going to adapt to life in the FBS and Sun Belt where they have zero chance of going to the playoffs?
I am not going to assume they will be a bad sunbelt team. They may adapt as well as App has. But are they going to be happy?
I feel you on this. It’s anecdotal but I see a reduction in sports interest as well in the people I know.
And the sports interest that does exist seems more diffuse (more sports competing for attention like soccer, more youth sports competing for time, and more focus on the “big event” rather than following “your team”).
Combine that with what many people see as vile corruption of the amateur college sports model, along with a never ending rat race of financial demands to keep up with the other schools and some people are going to just say “enough is enough, our university is not in this business. Sports was a pleasant little diversion for our university community and we will continue it at a lower level, but we are getting out of bed with this big money sham situation “
It’s happened before. U of Chicago was in the Big Ten at one time. I bet there have been others and I bet there will be more.
NASCAR went down this road about 15 years ago and has never recovered. I think football is on the same path.
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App has kept winning and winning bowl games which has kept their fans happy. Kudos to them and the really solid football program they have built. That train is not going to run forever though. It will be interesting to see how their fanbase reacts when they hit a downturn.
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This is a smart post. Definite parallels. Well said.
I agree NA. It is less the lower end gets kicked out and more the top just forms a new league without the bottom. Michigan, OSU, Bama, Texas and UGA get together and say let’s do this. Penn State signs off and so does Michigan State. Auburn and LSU join with A&M and then its a free for all of USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Clemson and the rest of the top end jumping in and just like that the Duke’s and the Vandys a long with the GTs and Missouris get left behind in whatever you want to call everyone else. The reality is the majority of college football is actually closer to us than they are to Bama - and if you take Bama or Ohio State out of their league they are basically just like everyone else.
Yep, and if they form a new Superfriends league, that’ll be the one Notre Dame finally joins, because the money will be too much to say no to.
I am almost rooting for it to happen. Go ahead and make your semipro league with the top 20 or so teams and let the other 110 programs return to some semblance of sanity.
I’ll be able to easily ignore that entire league too and focus on real college football, even if it’s all relegated to ESPN+. I’d still rather support that than what this is turning into.
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I am too. It will be a hard awakening for a lot of programs that consider themselves bigtime, but really were bigtime only because they happen to land in a league with a bran like Bama.
I am curious if the superfriends league happens - do the top schools finally look into caps and something to level the field? Would the schools at the bottom here really be ok long term with that? Texas couldn’t win where they were - what if they went 10 years in the bottom half of superfriends?
An App friend told me this morning that they sent out an email last night that they are short on parking spots and 500 members of their Yosself Club do not have a parking place this year due to construction.
People were not happy
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You guys are making my head spin. 
When this first started happening you guys were saying it would never happen because of traditions, rivalries and lawsuits. Now you’ve gone full circle to it only being 20 teams.
I stand by my stance that it will be more than 20-30 teams. Why would Tx, OU, USC, UCLA leave their conference, only to leave again in a couple of years. When if 20 is what their shooting for, just skip joining the SEC and B1G and start the 20.
Again, might something out of the norm happen? Of course. But if history is any precedent, these current conference realignments will be in place for 6-10 years.