Has X as the only lock right now, but Dayton will really have to implode to not make the tourny imo.
Xavier is still the cream of the crop in the A-10. Dayton still looks solid. UMass' computer profile is maybe (might be) better than Rhode Island's, but the Rams are the better team at the moment. Keep an eye on Charlotte, Saint Joe's and Temple as the next tier starts making an NCAA push.
[COLOR=#48306e]Should be in:[/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000]Dayton[/COLOR] [14-3 (2-2), RPI: 15, SOS: 26] The complete flop at Xavier, despite other teams having similar trouble with the Musketeers, pushes Dayton’s overall profile back a notch. The Flyers are still well positioned, but is Chris Wright’s absence starting to weigh on them? Dayton has two outstanding nonconference wins – at Louisville and versus Pitt – but it’s worth noting that Louisville was banged up and struggling while Pitt lost Levance Fields early in that Dayton game. The Flyers also have several other solid nonconference wins and an overall profile that’s still good. Upcoming games at Richmond and against Saint Louis aren’t gimmes.
[COLOR=#48306e]Work left to do:[/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000]Massachusetts[/COLOR] [13-5 (2-2), RPI: 18, SOS: 17] UMass got swept by Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday night in what could be a very big bubble situation. UMass has won at Dayton and also beat Charlotte, so it has had a strong schedule to start league play. It doesn’t get any easier with Xavier coming in Sunday and then a trip to Duquesne after that. Like Rhode Island, UMass beat Syracuse. Unlike the Rams, the Minutemen also beat BC and Houston in nonconference play. [COLOR=#000000]Rhode Island[/COLOR] [16-3 (2-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 139] The Rams rebounded from a frustrating loss at Saint Louis by staving off George Washington. They have two games they should win – at St. Bona and home to Richmond – before a shot at revenge against Dayton. Nonconference wins over Syracuse and Providence will help, but will the Rams rue letting one get away at BC? They still have a solid RPI despite a questionable SOS. [COLOR=#000000]Saint Joseph’s[/COLOR] [11-5 (3-1), RPI: 46, SOS: 87] After a frustrating loss at Charlotte, the Hawks came out and destroyed city rival Penn and then finished off a sweep of UMass that could be a large chip come Selection Sunday. Saint Joe’s has one of the toughest collection of nonleague L’s in the land. Two were in OT (vs. Gonzaga and at Creighton) and two others were last-possession defeats (at Syracuse and vs. Holy Cross). The back half of the league slate is very difficult, so the 3-1 start is important. The Hawks need to keep grabbing wins when they are available. [COLOR=#000000]Temple[/COLOR] [9-8 (2-1), RPI: 52, SOS: 3] You have to take a look at the Owls as the profile continues to improve. They’ll need a great run in A-10 play to make up for a nonconference slate devoid of a big win and littered with seven losses, but this is a dangerous team that’s playing better. The Owls have a big game against Saint Joe’s this Saturday. [COLOR=#000000]Duquesne[/COLOR] [12-5 (2-2), RPI: 63, SOS: 124] The Dukes handled St. Bona at home after a one-point loss at Fordham to stay on the periphery. The next three – home to GW and UMass and then at St. Bona – are all winnable. The Dukes don’t have any great wins or bad losses right now. The nonconference defeats are at Drake by four, to Pitt (when fully healthy) by five and at West Virginia, where they got rocked, but so do most teams when visiting Morgantown. [COLOR=#000000]Charlotte[/COLOR] [12-6 (3-1), RPI: 77, SOS: 108] After a tough loss at UMass, the 49ers beat La Salle on the road and now get Fordham and Richmond at home the next two Saturdays before a trip to Dayton. The up-and-down nonconference performance is why the RPI is where it is. Wins over Clemson, Wake Forest, Davidson and Southern Illinois are offset by a series of losses that run the gamut from Maryland to Tulsa to Hofstra to Monmouth
[QUOTE=49er1;288421]CURSE THOSE DAMN LOSSES TO MONMOUTH AND HOFSTRA!!! THEY’RE FRICKIN’ HAUNTING AN OTHERWISE GOOD YEAR!!![/QUOTE]
The committee will look past this if we finish strong I guarantee it. This type of thing comes up every year during selection time. 8 new players…4 new starters. I still say (for over a month now) that if we win 20 regular season games and make it to the semi-final we’re in…
[QUOTE=EJNiner;288437]The committee will look past this if we finish strong I guarantee it. This type of thing comes up every year during selection time. 8 new players…4 new starters. I still say (for over a month now) that if we win 20 regular season games and make it to the semi-final we’re in…[/QUOTE] I agree. Strong finishes often overshadow weak starts in the eyes of the Selection Committee. The strong performance by the A10 in OOC games should help if we keep winning in the conference.
Has X as the only lock right now, but Dayton will really have to implode to not make the tourny imo.[/QUOTE]
When I see a columnist label the current #18 and #23 RPI teams with “work left to do”, I question whether that columnist has ANY sense at all. Is any team currently “in” at this point in the season? While I don’t think it would happen, if Memphis, Kansas, or UNC-CH lost the rest of their games would they be “in”? I know this guy is just a columnist, but when the right talking heads keep spouting this BS the Selection Committee members might be reading or listening and they may even be stupid enough to believe the same thing. If a team finishes the season in the Top 30 of the RPI, there should be no question that they are in. They have done what they needed to do to get in as far as I’m concerned. The Billy Packer’s and other idiots of the basketball talking head world have seemingly caused that not to be a certainty, even when the George Mason’s and Wichita State’s of the world insert their shoes in Packer’s mouth. When these idiots start saying that Top 25 RPI teams have “work left to do”, their employer needs to give them something else to cover because they do not know what the hell they are talking about. If I thought the Selection Committee could prudently do their job, I would not give a darn about people writing nonsense like that. As it is, nothing seems to be certain with the Committee any more even if it should be.
Repeat of 76-77. Win the NIT this year. Final 4 (and hopefully beyond) next year.
[hah i cant wait for the replies i get to this random comment!][/QUOTE] We would have been in the NCAA is '76 if there were 64 teams in the dance back then.
This list is from RPIForecast. Don’t ask me how they determined the numbers:
Through games of Jan 22, 2008.
Probability of an At-large Bid. (x is for the projected conference champion)
100.00% North Carolina
100.00% Duke X
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Washington St.
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% [B]Xavier X[/B]
100.00% West Virginia X
100.00% Georgetown
100.00% Wisconsin X
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Mississippi
100.00% Marquette
100.00% Clemson
100.00% Texas
100.00% Pittsburgh
100.00% Arizona
99.98% [B]Rhode Island [/B]
99.97% Butler X
99.97% St. Mary’s X
99.91% Ohio St.
99.90% Gonzaga
99.86% Stanford
99.76% Vanderbilt
99.72% [B]Dayton [/B]
99.04% Florida
98.97% Texas A&M
98.88% Oklahoma
98.43% Louisville
97.49% Baylor
97.49% Notre Dame
96.26% Kansas St.
96.22% Connecticut
95.93% Southern California
92.18% Illinois St.
91.14% Mississippi St.
89.81% Miami FL
86.40% South Alabama X
82.59% Arkansas
82.34% Oregon
79.21% Nevada Las Vegas X
77.69% [B]Massachusetts[/B]
66.92% Providence
64.88% George Mason
—end of at-large bids—
55.73% Brigham Young
53.61% [B]Duquesne[/B]
46.01% Arizona St.
43.93% Syracuse
40.54% Kent St.
35.87% Creighton
35.59% New Mexico
32.12% Villanova
28.87% Davidson X
28.65% Cleveland St.
26.17% Florida St.
25.34% Missouri
23.15% Akron X
20.19% San Diego St.
12.74% Virginia Commonwealth X
9.45% Ohio
9.10% [B]Saint Joseph’s [/B]
7.58% Maryland
5.82% UAB
3.04% Houston
2.76% Siena X
1.89% Boston College
1.19% California
0.97% Southern Illinois
0.70% Western Kentucky
0.63% Minnesota
0.59% Sam Houston St. X
0.52% UC Santa Barbara X
0.48% Texas Tech
0.39% Stephen F. Austin
0.32% [B][COLOR=DarkGreen]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
0.30% North Carolina St.
0.30% Virginia Tech
0.19% Oral Roberts
0.11% [B]Temple [/B]
0.07% Valparaiso
0.05% Cal St. Northridge
0.03% Purdue
0.02% Miami OH
0.01% Winthrop X
0.01% Kentucky
[QUOTE=survivor45;288515]This list is from RPIForecast. Don’t ask me how they determined the numbers:
Through games of Jan 22, 2008.
Probability of an At-large Bid. (x is for the projected conference champion)
100.00% North Carolina
100.00% Duke X
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Washington St.
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% [B]Xavier X[/B]
100.00% West Virginia X
100.00% Georgetown
100.00% Wisconsin X
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Mississippi
100.00% Marquette
100.00% Clemson
100.00% Texas
100.00% Pittsburgh
100.00% Arizona
99.98% [B]Rhode Island [/B]
99.97% Butler X
99.97% St. Mary’s X
99.91% Ohio St.
99.90% Gonzaga
99.86% Stanford
99.76% Vanderbilt
99.72% [B]Dayton [/B]
99.04% Florida
98.97% Texas A&M
98.88% Oklahoma
98.43% Louisville
97.49% Baylor
97.49% Notre Dame
96.26% Kansas St.
96.22% Connecticut
95.93% Southern California
92.18% Illinois St.
91.14% Mississippi St.
89.81% Miami FL
86.40% South Alabama X
82.59% Arkansas
82.34% Oregon
79.21% Nevada Las Vegas X
77.69% [B]Massachusetts[/B]
66.92% Providence
64.88% George Mason
—end of at-large bids—
55.73% Brigham Young
53.61% [B]Duquesne[/B]
46.01% Arizona St.
43.93% Syracuse
40.54% Kent St.
35.87% Creighton
35.59% New Mexico
32.12% Villanova
28.87% Davidson X
28.65% Cleveland St.
26.17% Florida St.
25.34% Missouri
23.15% Akron X
20.19% San Diego St.
12.74% Virginia Commonwealth X
9.45% Ohio
9.10% [B]Saint Joseph’s [/B]
7.58% Maryland
5.82% UAB
3.04% Houston
2.76% Siena X
1.89% Boston College
1.19% California
0.97% Southern Illinois
0.70% Western Kentucky
0.63% Minnesota
0.59% Sam Houston St. X
0.52% UC Santa Barbara X
0.48% Texas Tech
0.39% Stephen F. Austin
0.32% [B][COLOR=DarkGreen]Charlotte[/COLOR][/B]
0.30% North Carolina St.
0.30% Virginia Tech
0.19% Oral Roberts
0.11% [B]Temple [/B]
0.07% Valparaiso
0.05% Cal St. Northridge
0.03% Purdue
0.02% Miami OH
0.01% Winthrop X
0.01% Kentucky[/QUOTE]
How do thses numbers look with Dayton and URI’s losses?
This list is from RPIForecast. Don’t ask me how they determined the numbers:
Through games of Jan 26, 2008.
Probability of an At-large Bid. (x is for the projected conference champion)
100.00% North Carolina X
100.00% Duke
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Georgetown
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% Washington St.
1[B]00.00% Xavier X[/B]
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Arizona
100.00% Texas
100.00% Marquette
100.00% Clemson
100.00% West Virginia X
100.00% Wisconsin X
99.99% Mississippi
99.99% Butler X
99.98% St. Mary’s
99.98% Southern California
99.98% Oklahoma
99.98% Gonzaga X
99.97% Ohio St.
99.97% Stanford
99.93% Pittsburgh
99.84% Notre Dame
[B]99.84% Rhode Island
[/B]99.65% Connecticut
99.52% Vanderbilt
99.52% Louisville
99.45% Kansas St.
99.41% Florida
98.89% Mississippi St.
98.80% Nevada Las Vegas X
98.35% Baylor
96.64% Arkansas
[B]92.36% Dayton[/B]
92.33% Texas A&M
91.84% Brigham Young
88.82% South Alabama X
82.18% Miami FL
73.50% Illinois St.
[B]72.96% Massachusetts[/B]
67.72% Kent St.
52.42% Davidson X
[B]50.92% Duquesne[/B]
—end of at-large bids—
43.41% Syracuse
43.28% Virginia Commonwealth X
[B]41.83% Saint Joseph’s
[/B]39.75% George Mason
31.83% Oregon
21.15% Creighton
17.57% Purdue
15.84% Missouri
14.59% Houston
13.33% Ohio
8.57% New Mexico
8.05% Western Kentucky
7.31% UAB
6.88% Southern Illinois
6.43% Maryland
[B][COLOR=darkgreen]5.30% Charlotte
[/COLOR][/B]3.87% Providence
3.82% Sam Houston St. X
2.98% Texas Tech
2.85% Oral Roberts
2.31% Florida St.
2.29% North Carolina St.
2.24% San Diego St.
1.87% Virginia Tech
1.78% Arizona St.
0.96% Cleveland St.
0.70% Georgia Tech
0.25% California
0.23% Seton Hall
0.23% Akron X
0.23% Villanova
0.19% Cal St. Northridge X
0.16% Kentucky
0.15% Stephen F. Austin
0.03% IUPUI X
0.03% Boston College
0.02% Winthrop X
0.02% Siena X
0.01% Minnesota
0.01% Utah
0.01% Nevada
Unfortunately, it does not update every day. But it looks like Charlotte is moving in the right direction after Saturday’s games.
[QUOTE=49or bust;289685]I call shenanigans on this. Davidson hasn’t even beaten a good non-conf team and their conference is basically a bunch of mediocre teams.[/QUOTE]
pretty sure at large also equals winning the conference tournament right?
This list is from RPIForecast. Don't ask me how they determined the numbers:
Through games of Jan 26, 2008.
Probability of an At-large Bid. (x is for the projected conference champion)
100.00% North Carolina X
100.00% Duke
100.00% Kansas X
100.00% Memphis X
100.00% Tennessee X
100.00% UCLA X
100.00% Georgetown
100.00% Michigan St.
100.00% Washington St.
100.00% Xavier X
100.00% Indiana
100.00% Drake X
100.00% Arizona
100.00% Texas
100.00% Marquette
100.00% Clemson
100.00% West Virginia X
100.00% Wisconsin X
99.99% Mississippi
99.99% Butler X
99.98% St. Mary’s
99.98% Southern California
99.98% Oklahoma
99.98% Gonzaga X
99.97% Ohio St.
99.97% Stanford
99.93% Pittsburgh
99.84% Notre Dame 99.84% Rhode Island
99.65% Connecticut
99.52% Vanderbilt
99.52% Louisville
99.45% Kansas St.
99.41% Florida
98.89% Mississippi St.
98.80% Nevada Las Vegas X
98.35% Baylor
96.64% Arkansas 92.36% Dayton
92.33% Texas A&M
91.84% Brigham Young
88.82% South Alabama X
82.18% Miami FL
73.50% Illinois St. 72.96% Massachusetts
67.72% Kent St.
52.42% Davidson X 50.92% Duquesne
—end of at-large bids—
43.41% Syracuse
43.28% Virginia Commonwealth X 41.83% Saint Joseph’s
39.75% George Mason
31.83% Oregon
21.15% Creighton
17.57% Purdue
15.84% Missouri
14.59% Houston
13.33% Ohio
8.57% New Mexico
8.05% Western Kentucky
7.31% UAB
6.88% Southern Illinois
6.43% Maryland [COLOR=darkgreen]5.30% Charlotte [/COLOR]
3.87% Providence
3.82% Sam Houston St. X
2.98% Texas Tech
2.85% Oral Roberts
2.31% Florida St.
2.29% North Carolina St.
2.24% San Diego St.
1.87% Virginia Tech
1.78% Arizona St.
0.96% Cleveland St.
0.70% Georgia Tech
0.25% California
0.23% Seton Hall
0.23% Akron X
0.23% Villanova
0.19% Cal St. Northridge X
0.16% Kentucky
0.15% Stephen F. Austin
0.03% IUPUI X
0.03% Boston College
0.02% Winthrop X
0.02% Siena X
0.01% Minnesota
0.01% Utah
0.01% Nevada
Unfortunately, it does not update every day. But it looks like Charlotte is moving in the right direction after Saturday’s games.
