Something I’ve been observing for years at our games seems to be the statistical significance of getting to 49 first. I don’t have the overall stats since 2002 since I’ve been attending games, but I feel that the first team to 49 wins a high (I’d guess 85) percent of the time in our games.
I have not bothered to see if this is the case for other programs.
Stats are: *
The stats from this year are that when we are first to 49, we have won all three games - Elon, PSU, SC.
When the other team is first to 49, we are 1 for 4 - UNCA with losses to Miami, Miami, and Davidson.
States for GW game were not available to me at the time of making this post.
I just find this a very interesting phenomenon that seems to carry over from year to year. It’s also something moderately interesting to talk about when things aren’t going great.
I like the idea behind it, but wouldn’t this be true for most higher scores- i.e., the team with the lead later in the game tends to win the majority of the time?
Yeah, I mean, I think you are probably right, but 49 has some significance to us. The only way to test your theory would be to take a set of data (you know, 100 games or whatever) see what % of times we win when we first to 49, then try it with other variables, 45, 59, whatever. I’m sure some math person could be way more specific that I’m being.
If true I like it. I know Major uses the official timeouts (under 16, under 12, etc) to subdivide the game and we try to win each block, but if the players had a goal like the first to 49 and they believed in it, it might put them in the right frame of mind to start strong and push for that score. The fans could cheer for that too if we knew it was happening. Prove your theory Ninercentral.
Yeah, I mean, I think you are probably right, but 49 has some significance to us. The only way to test your theory would be to take a set of data (you know, 100 games or whatever) see what % of times we win when we first to 49, then try it with other variables, 45, 59, whatever. I’m sure some math person could be way more specific that I’m being.[/quote]
Something else would be to look back at random games not involving us, and see what percentage of a hundred games are won by the first team to score 49. Then compare that to our percentage. I think you can find the play by plays for several years back on ESPN.com.
States for GW game were not available to me at the time of making this post.
I just find this a very interesting phenomenon that seems to carry over from year to year. It’s also something moderately interesting to talk about when things aren’t going great.[/quote]
GW was first to 49. I was paying attention at the time. They had 48 points or something for a long time, but we couldn’t catch up as we were stuck around 43.
First team to score wins 54% of the time (NBA statistic and could vary for college)
First team to reach 10 will win 54% + x
First team to reach 30 will win 54% + x + y
this continues to increase with higher numbers and never decreases
I always think that when we hit 49 points exactly it’s a good omen but just pure superstition
I believe we were tied with Citadel in football 49-49 with 1:49 left and i thought for sure we’d win. Nope.
My roommates and I tracked this Major’s first few years. I forget why it started but 1 of us noticed there was a trend. I vaguely remember at one point we had like a 20-5 record or something crazy like that when scoring 49 first. Then we quit tracking since it was obvious if we didn’t score 49 first we would likely lose.
In the same way that the “Winning team, losing team” cheer does not affect the outcome of the game, we should find a way to play this up because it could be fun. When we are the first team to get 49 points the crowd should yell “FORTY NINE!” when the ball goes through the basket. Or, something else. It doesn’t really matter, just something that our players could shoot for.
I recall a game from a few years ago that was tied at 49 with a couple of seconds to go. I don’t remember who got there first, but we lost, 49-51. There are no doubt others who remember that game.
Our big win over Tennessee back in 2010 was 49-48.
I agree with the ideas to test it. You could first see if it holds true for teams in general (pick a random sample of other games and record which team got to 49 first and then record whether that team won). I’m guessing that normally the winning team gets there first, because so many games are blowouts where the winning team will obviously get there long before the losing team and 49 is not that far from average final scores for winning teams (somewhere in the 60’s?). But I don’t know how much above 50% that would be.
Then you could figure out if the Niners have a higher than average chance of winning if they reach 49 first by recording how often they won when they reached 49 first, and how likely this difference is due to chance (using a statistical test). I’m thinking you could compile the numbers of wins and losses when the 49ers reach 49 first, then compare that to your random sample of wins and losses when a random team makes it to 49 first (seems like a chi-square would do OK for this). Probably wouldn’t be different, but you never know.
what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.
[quote=“ninerID, post:14, topic:29229”]what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.[/quote]
[quote=“ninerID, post:14, topic:29229”]what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.
[quote=“austinniner, post:16, topic:29229”][quote=“ninerID, post:14, topic:29229”]what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.
[quote=“Wingate49erFan, post:17, topic:29229”][quote=“austinniner, post:16, topic:29229”][quote=“ninerID, post:14, topic:29229”]what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.
nearly 4 and 1/2 minutes without scoring a point - OUCH[/quote]
That game still makes me mad.[/quote]
Like Bobby says, “If you can’t beat 'em, join 'em.”
[quote=“Nugget, post:18, topic:29229”][quote=“Wingate49erFan, post:17, topic:29229”][quote=“austinniner, post:16, topic:29229”][quote=“ninerID, post:14, topic:29229”]what if you created a google spreadsheet, tabs of different seasons, and all having similar columns
Opponent, Win/Loss, First to 49
Others can then help fill in the blanks for you.
nearly 4 and 1/2 minutes without scoring a point - OUCH[/quote]
That game still makes me mad.[/quote]
Like Bobby says, “If you can’t beat 'em, join 'em.”[/quote]