Interesting perspective, this is on espn.com. Peter Tiernan’s article on recent NCAA trends.
3. The incredible shrinking mid-major pool has bottomed out Speaking of conference affiliation, where have all the dangerous mid-major schools gone? (This year, the answer's easy: Big East.) The 2005 tourney involved only 10 mid-major teams, easily the lowest number of the 64-team era ... and down from a high of 23 teams in 1993. Meanwhile, small conferences fielded a record 23 teams, six more than their previous high. We've already touched on how the number of small conference teams has an inverse relationship to the number of upsets. But as of late, even the mid-major schools that get into the tourney aren't making much noise.The fact is, neither the mid-majors nor the small conferences are performing well enough in the tourney to warrant taking slots from the big six conferences. Of the three seven-year periods of the modern tourney, mid-majors have performed the worst in the most recent period. Not only is their winning percentage the lowest (.438 during 1999-2005 compared to a high of .456 during 1985-1991), but they’re performing the worst against seed expectations, winning only 85 games when their average ninth seed says they should win 90. The same goes for the small conferences. In the first seven years of the modern tourney, they won about one in six games (.163 winning percentage). Since 1999, they’ve won less than one in 10 (.096). And they’ve also posted the worst performance against seed expectations, winning just 13 games when their average 14 seed dictates that they should have won 19.
There’s no reason why the selection committee shouldn’t include more teams from the big six conferences. The big six are winning more often than ever (343-210, .620 percentage) and have exceeded seed expectations by more wins (11), despite being saddled with their highest average seed (5.1) of the three seven-year periods in the modern era. It will be interesting to see whether the absorption of old mid-major powerhouses such as Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette will resolve or aggravate this issue. If the selection committee holds the line of big six tourney qualifiers at the historical average of about 30, the problem likely will worsen. If they accommodate more big six teams, look for a more competitive and unpredictable tourney.