I thought this was interesting. I know its early and RPI doesn’t mean much at this point, but I cant remember the last time we were this high, even after the first game of the season. Also find it interesting that we are higher than Miami! Could this be our first non-cupcake schedule under Major!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi
SOS is keeping us afloat. We actually have a pretty strong SOS for the next 7 games or so. (minus APP) Then it is going to tank. We have to pick up a lot of wins the next 7 games.
Definitely our best schedule to date, last year was at-large worthy but we didn’t live up to the schedule.
1 home game so far is also helping.
How can Miami be undefeated, beat us on neutral and our home courts, and still be rated below us?
Edit: I see their SOS is mediocre. The rest of their schedule must have been poor.
Miami has #24 Illinois tonight.
[quote=“4ever niner, post:5, topic:29204”]How can Miami be undefeated, beat us on neutral and our home courts, and still be rated below us?
Edit: I see their SOS is mediocre. The rest of their schedule must have been poor.[/quote]
They also beat #8 Florida. That doesn’t seem to add up.
[quote=“NinerAl, post:7, topic:29204”][quote=“4ever niner, post:5, topic:29204”]How can Miami be undefeated, beat us on neutral and our home courts, and still be rated below us?
Edit: I see their SOS is mediocre. The rest of their schedule must have been poor.[/quote]
They also beat #8 Florida. That doesn’t seem to add up.[/quote]
Florida is only 3-3 on the year.
Guys, calm down, there is a LOT of noise in the RPI this early in December. If you know the math, these things don’t raise much of an eye-brow.
I think everyone is well aware of this. No one needs to calm down imo
Individual teams fluctuate quite a bit. But conference rpi’s will be starting to settle into close to their current ranks, especially if you look at “expected” rpi as calculated by rpiforecast.com. That’s a heck of a lot more concerning, if you look at where the conference is right now (#19 ranked conference) and where it is expected to end up (#16 ranked conference). See: http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/CUSA.html
Also, just look at how many rpi anchors there are right now, 8 teams at 200+. That will probably change somewhat, but I doubt all of them rise.
The #16 ranked conference does not get at-large bids without a stellar OOC and almost pristine conference play. Upsets happen, especially on the road, so I think this means it’s even more likely (it was already pretty likely) that the Niners will need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.
Talking about at-large bids is premature anyway until the Niners get some strong wins (e.g. Georgetown) and for once play well in conference, but it’s disappointing to see just how bad CUSA is doing right now.
Charlotte RPI Profile
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/2429
clt can see the observer headline now. Acc has 3 in early rpi rankings.
Live-rpi is currently predicting us at 21-10, with a better chance of going 27-4 or better than below .500.
^^^
^^[1] How many times I gotta tell you. Stop bashing the O. ;D
Also, 49r9r, stay on topic.
/quote ↩︎
[quote=“9erken, post:11, topic:29204”]Individual teams fluctuate quite a bit. But conference rpi’s will be starting to settle into close to their current ranks, especially if you look at “expected” rpi as calculated by rpiforecast.com. That’s a heck of a lot more concerning, if you look at where the conference is right now (#19 ranked conference) and where it is expected to end up (#16 ranked conference). See: http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/CUSA.html
Also, just look at how many rpi anchors there are right now, 8 teams at 200+. That will probably change somewhat, but I doubt all of them rise.
The #16 ranked conference does not get at-large bids without a stellar OOC and almost pristine conference play. Upsets happen, especially on the road, so I think this means it’s even more likely (it was already pretty likely) that the Niners will need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.
Talking about at-large bids is premature anyway until the Niners get some strong wins (e.g. Georgetown) and for once play well in conference, but it’s disappointing to see just how bad CUSA is doing right now.[/quote]
I agree with this, but I will say that our only losses are to an undefeated Miami team that is sitting 3rd in the RPI right now with the 19th ranked SOS. Our RPI is 12th with the 7th ranked SOS. Outside of taking down the #3 RPI team, there’s not much else we could have done to this point. We’ve played well, won the games we’re supposed to (even when playing poorly) and nearly took down #3 at home. (Stats are as of 9:22 on live-rpi.com)
CUSA has 4 teams projected in the top-100, but then no other teams projected in the top 170, right now. We all know this means we gotta keep winning the games we’re supposed to and let it take care of itself. If we go 24-7 or better and lose in the conference tournament, there is a pretty good chance we get an at-large look. Of course, that means we have to go 24-7 or better, which is no easy task. Anything below 22 wins and I think we’ll need to win the conference tournament to make the dance, barring a fairly major turnaround by the bottom of the conference. Of course, I’d prefer to take all of the guesswork out of the equation and win the conference tournament without dropping any more games the rest of the way.
[quote=“NewNiner, post:14, topic:29204”]Live-rpi is currently predicting us at 21-10, with a better chance of going 27-4 or better than below .500.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Charlotte.html[/quote]
Based on this forecast we really need to win 25 games and have an RPI of 38 to get an at-large. 24 wins puts our RPI at 47.4. A CUSA member with an RPI of 47 may not even have a 50% chance of making the tourney. Granted things will change. Two games against the #3 team in the RPI is really helping us out right now but I’d be surprised if Miami doesn’t drop back into the mid-teens eventually.
[quote=“9erken, post:11, topic:29204”]Individual teams fluctuate quite a bit. But conference rpi’s will be starting to settle into close to their current ranks, especially if you look at “expected” rpi as calculated by rpiforecast.com. That’s a heck of a lot more concerning, if you look at where the conference is right now (#19 ranked conference) and where it is expected to end up (#16 ranked conference). See: http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/CUSA.html
Also, just look at how many rpi anchors there are right now, 8 teams at 200+. That will probably change somewhat, but I doubt all of them rise.
The #16 ranked conference does not get at-large bids without a stellar OOC and almost pristine conference play. Upsets happen, especially on the road, so I think this means it’s even more likely (it was already pretty likely) that the Niners will need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.
Talking about at-large bids is premature anyway until the Niners get some strong wins (e.g. Georgetown) and for once play well in conference, but it’s disappointing to see just how bad CUSA is doing right now.[/quote]
[size=2]My bold. Totally agree.
I’m not trolling, and I’m not being negative. But an at large bid is [font=verdana]probably[/font][font=verdana]just not in the cards. (Which is a shame because we’re good enough. But that doesn’t matter.)[/font]
I think the trick to making it in this season-- and probably next-- is being able to convince our players (and fans) to not give up. We need to show up and care every bit as much as if we actually are a bubble team. Not easy.
This problem isn’t a problem yet. But it will be later. Our fans and players will have it sink in that an at large isn’t happening. Then what? How will we respond? (Reminds me of the 90/10 thing.)
We need to win the conference tournament, which means we’ve got to get better than we are now.[/size]
I would typically agree with this but I have to say that our OOC schedule this year is not the typical Charlotte or CUSA OOC schedule. So many road and neutral games ends up working greatly in our favor, along with playing other potential tournament teams.
