I will begin by posting these overall conference observations from WH:
Posted 3/8/07:
The regular season is over, so my usual small window of comment has opened. I'll have more to say later about the past season, which was frankly a huge disappointment to me in terms of the overall (mostly noncon) results. Even though I went as conservative as I thought reasonable on predicting W's and L's, the A-10 disappointed again. The fact that a horrible Bonaventure team won four conference games is indicative of the depressed state of our league. (With a particular dart at Saint Louis).This has got to get turned around soon, real soon. The TV contract turned out to be a disaster this first year. Thank goodness Fox Sports Ohio picked up so many non-Xavier games.
At cursory glance, the A-10 all-conference teams look reasonable. I might quibble here or there - as would everyone else - but none of the picks truly surprises me except for perhaps Dunston on Second Team. He did not have an especially good year despite his numbers.
As for my picks, I always point out the obvious before each season. A few teams are going to vastly over or under perform. This year the big overperformer was Rhody and to a lesser extent Duquesne. The big underachievers were Saint Louis and Charlotte.
I know Hawks fans like to get on me for supposedly underestimating St. Joeās every year ā it isnāt true! ā but I was not far off the mark.
I predicted the Hawks to finish at 15-14, or 8-8 in A-10 play. St. Joeās went 16-13 (not including a win over a Division 2 foe) and 9-7 in conference play.
Next year, the Hawks will be predicted significantly higher.
On Saint Louis, I did say in my preview that the Bills had to stay healthy because depth was a big concern. I also noted that the power forward slot was weak and that backup guards Brown and Polk were inconsistent.
Sure enough, Kevin Lisch was injured much of the year, especially in conference play, and that killed the Bills.
What no one knew, as B-Roy points out, was that Ian Vouyoukas would turn out to be the biggest disappointment in the league. He did not seem to be in tiptop shape or play with the controlled aggressiveness he displayed last year. Unless you saw a lot of IV last year, most A-10 fans probably are not aware of just how good he was. (St. Joeās fans excluded. He did not play well vs. the Hawks in both games last season).
Whatās particularly irksome about Saint Louis is that the Bills were well positioned for an at-large bid entering league play. Had they gone 12-4 in A-10 play, St. Lo might be a lock for the NCAA tourney. Even 11-5 would have put them on the cusp.
Just wondering: Is Brad Soderberg the worst recruiter in the A-10? At any top 100 RPI school?
[b]I admit to being fooled by Charlotte. Even though I watched them for the two years prior to joining the A-10, itās taken me two years of seeing them in the A-10 conference to get a handle on Lutz and Co.
I remember writing before Charlotte joined the first year that the team would have to play better defense and halfcourt offense in the A-10. Unlike in Conference USA, fewer teams in the A-10 would play a wide open style.
As it turned out, Charlotte under Lutz has not adjusted. He will have to adjust next year with a younger team or risk plenty of blowouts and an unglorious exit in Charlotte. I admit to some sympathy for Charlotte fans. I didnāt quite know as fully as I do now how allergic Lutz was to stressing defense.[/b]
Itās true, as ktbatz said, that I tend to underestimate UMass. But thatās because I overestimated them for years. Itās always hard to judge oneās own team objectively.
While I am happy with the play of Umass, I am very unhappy that they are a bubble team. Some chalk it up to playing teams like Savannah State. I blame the losses to Miami (at home), at Rhody and at Temple. UMass wins two of those games, they are in.
Travis Ford has done a pretty good job this year. Yet he took way too long to figure out a rotation and made a big mistake in not giving the starting point guard spot to Chris Lowe the moment his suspension ended. We didnt need another frosh (Tiki Mayben) leading the point at that time when we had a well seasoned sophomore ready to go.
Nor was I happy with UMassā porous defense in some games, the loss at Xavier in particular. Now it looks like UMass has to get to the A-10 final or win outright to get in.
Rhody, of course, was the biggest surprise of the year ā more so because the Rams accomplished their resurgence without a real point guard on the team after Jon Lucky got hurt. Until the end of last year, I had been one of a dwindling number of Baron supporters and have taken some heat from Rhody fans upset with their coach. I am sure they are still stinging from the loss at Richmond, but I like the talent and athleticism on the roster. Baron has earned a reprieve.
GW wasnāt exactly a surprise, but I was impressed with how Hobbs integrated several talented newcomers (King and Hollis). Even without Carl Elliott next year, GW will be pretty good. If Cheyenne Moore gets his game back, I think the Colonials could vie for a top four finish in 2007-08.
Ditto for Duquesne, which gets badly needed reinforcements next year. Itās amazing how hiring the right coach can make so much difference, even in just one year. Take note St. Bonaventure.
If thereās been a worse coaching performance in the A-10 in my 20 years of viewing, I havenāt seen it. Solomonās job was on par with Degregorio at URI and the final year of Bob Hill.
I look for much improvement in LaSalle and Richmond next year. Lot of good young talent. LaSalle was close at the end of so many games and Richmond had plenty of impressive moments despite all the losing. These teams crumbled due to tremendous inexperience. The experience gained this year will pay big dividends next season.
If only Temple had one decent bigman this year, the Owls might be an NIT team.
Fordham clearly needs a few more scorers. No news there. But Bryant Dunston has not gotten much better, if at all, since his very impressive freshman year. He was another big disappointment to me. If he had played a little better, Fordham could have 20 wins. The good thing is the Rams have some nice frosh guards who will help this team aim for the NCAA tourney next year.
Dayton was another team that started out well, but the Flyersā historic problems on the road (in the A-10 anyway) resurfaced. Brian Roberts has proven himself to be the best shooting guard in the league and Charles Little is emerging as the second scorer, but Gregory needs some more firepower badly.
Posted 3/12/07
I said here last week I am very disappointed with this season. We did even worse than my low-ball estimate on nonconference wins and losses. This is the third straight year that has happened. Even a very competitive conference does not make up for the noncon struggles, obviously. I sure hope we see more urgency in the AD suites ā I am now firmly convinced that new A-10 leadership is in order -- and in the coaching offices.Better scheduling is clearly in order, particularly given how tough itās getting to field an at-large bid in either tourney. Massachusetts certainly hurt itself with a couple of low RPI teams, to cite one instance. Had the league done a bit better and had UMass beaten a few more solid teams, the A-10 would have three tourney teams.
Coaching is, of course, the wellspring of all success. We saw at Duquesne how good coaching matters and we saw at Bonaventure how bad coaching causes long-term damage. The Bonnies are in for yet another rebuilding effort.
The one bright spot for the A-10 is that the league is generally solid on the coaching front. Charlotteās Bobby Lutz moves to the top of the heap in terms of whose on the hotseat. And Brad Soderberg, after a relatively disappointing season and another year of fall of poor recruiting, is also drawing a bullās eye. Who would have expected that two years ago?
Speaking of recruiting, I contend that the A-10 has generally recruited quite well in recent years. The league is young and the payoff should be coming soon (it better!) That said, I wonder if recruiting everywhere has picked up. Perhaps everyone has better players because there are more good ones to be found. Perhaps the A-10 has stayed in place, in terms of talent, relative to other leagues.
We should find out in the next year or two. If the A-10 was truly just hitting a bad cycle, the upswing has to begin to happen soon. Otherwise there is a danger of long-term sliding (one effect of which would be Martelliās departure to a bigger pasture; I think he is the proverbial canary for the league).
Anyway, here are some quick thoughts on each team about next year.
CHARLOTTE. The Niners will be young next year and unproven inside. Point guard is still a big question mark. Maybe Carlos Williams settles down, maybe he doesnāt. Itās a big if. What else? Charlotte was a poor offensive AND defensive team this year. So hope for major progress is hard. I think itās make or break for Lutz. He has to show energy in his coaching, and his players have to show energy on the court. Perhaps all the youngsters will overachieve, a la Rhody this year, but I am skeptical. Charlotte was my second biggest miss this year. I gave Lutz a big benefit of the doubt his first two years, but now he just has me doubting.
DAYTON. The Flyers donāt lose much ā only career underachiever Monty Scott ā and a talented crop of frosh are coming in. Yet Dayton desperately needs better point play and a third major scoring option. London Warren, who improved rapidly in conference play, could fix the problems at point. Where additional scoring will come from is the big question. Flyers fans are banking on top recruit Chris Wright to fill the bill. Despite some big questions, I think Dayton has more upside than downside and they will flirt with the 20-win mark again next season. They have a bit of size and experience, some youthful energy and best off-guard in the A-10 ā Brian Roberts has clearly established that credential. The improvement of rising star Charles Little and sophomore-to-be center Kurt Huelsman are key.
DUQUESNE. What incredible improvement in just one year, especially after all the Dukesā former troubles. After 20 years of floundering, Duquesne clearly has the leadership (AD, school president) in place to support a good basketball program. (The changes to the website, for instance, are remarkable). Hard as it may be to believe, I think the Dukes could challenge for the A-10 title next year. I expect them to start off slow as they work touted transfers Kojo Mensah and Shawn James into the mix but become real tough by conference play. At the very least, Duquesne should truly help the league RPI next year. That by itself is a great thing. Kieron Achara and James will compose one of the leagueās best frontcourt duos and thereās plenty of talent on the wing with ROY Mitchell, Mensah and the Jackson boys. Cant wait to see the next edition of the Dukes.
FORDHAM. A winning record for the first time since joining the A-10 is a big deal, but the Rams fell short because of a postseason bid because of scoring difficulties. I thought Bryrant Dunston did not perform well enough against good teams ā and it simply wasnāt because of double teams or his teammatesā weaknesses. He doesnāt play as well in big games against good teams with size. Heās got to do that next year. Fordham is ready to compete for the A-10 title and get to the NCAAs. Talented sophomore-to-be Brenton Butler will help much more with scoring next year and allow Coach Whit to sit Kevin Anderson and his anemic offense more often. The Rams will be a balanced and experienced squad with decent size, athleticism and depth. Fordham wonāt get another bigman like Dunston anytime soon. Itās time to take the next big leap.
GEORGE WASHINGTON. Losing Carl Elliott will be tough, but Hobbs has a nice fill-in. Soph-to-be Travis King is a fine young point guard. Mo Rice and Rob Diggs will carry the team and Damian Hollis is emerging as another good Colonial ā long, lean and athletic, plus he can shoot. And GW has some good recruits coming in. A big key could be a fully healthy Cheyenne Moore. The Clemson transfer, who experienced foot troubles all year, showed explosive athleticism and scoring ability when healthy. In short, the Colonials will remain in the top half of the A-10 next season. Hobbs has ingrained winning into the program and GW is by no means short of talent.
LASALLE. The Explorers were close in many games, but lost a lot of heartbreakers. Their extreme youth usually was the cause. I know LaSalle fans are very disappointed, but I have faith in Giannini. Heās recruited very well and heās an excellent coach, but such extreme youth is a problem for any coach. Just look at how a similarly young UConn program struggled this year with a Hall of Famer on the bench. Next season, I think the Explorers will do much better. All the experience gained by this yearās big frosh class will pay off. LaSalle rebounds well despite smallish size and the potential is there for the Explorers to become a very good defensive team. They are very quick and athletic. What concerns me most is the lack of size inside and insufficient perimeter firepower. Too many slashers and not enough shooters. That has to be addressed or Giannini has to alter the teamās style of play more than he did in the past season. Rodney Green is a future all-conference player and Mbala, Barrett and Guillandeaux all played well down the stretch.
MASSACHUSETTS. Hereās a contrary thought. I think UMass has a chance to be better next year? How so, you say? They lose Lasme and Freeman, two First Team A-10 selections. True enough, but even with these two guys the Minutemen missed the NCAA tournament and lost at least three must-win games (Miami, At Rhody, at Temple). I was quite disappointed with the Minutemen this year. The defense broke down badly in a key games and I never sensed a killer attitude on this team. They won more by talent than by guts.
Next year, UMass becomes more perimeter focused and Ford solidifies his grip on the program entering his third year. I think Gary Forbes will be a POY candidate, while junior-to-be Chris Lowe might be the second best point guard in the league. I like promising frosh guards Tiki Mayben and especially the fearless Ricky Harris. The key concerns are whether Luke Bonner and Dante Milligan can hold down the fort inside. I think they can. Off the bench Etienne Brower will be a solid sub. In summary, UMass will still have good size and experience and plenty of talent on the wing. Even without contributions from a large and promising recruiting class, the Minutemen will be a contender. The big question is still perimeter shooting, though I think the loss of Jekyll and Hyde starter James Life is addition by subtraction.
RHODE ISLAND. The Rams were a huge surprise this year and should only get better. URI loses just one player from the current squad, senior center Darrel Harris. He was not a big factor. Rhody is a bit undersized but they have oodles of athleticism and some bigtime shooter/scorers in Will Daniels and Jim Baron Jr. Kaheim Seawright is undersized at big forward but heās a rebounding demon whoās hard to box out. The progress of talented frosh keith Cothran is crucial. He could be a star in this league with his length and all-round ability. The Rams also welcome touted redshirt frosh Delroy James, a shooter-scorer who some thought was the teamās best recruit in an excellent recruiting class. What URI needs is a bit more size, but this team should be very good next season, NIT good if not NCAA good.
RICHMOND. The script for the Spiders is the same for LaSalle. They brought in a fine recruiting class and took their lumps. By season end, Richmond was playing much better and the youngsters began to grasp Mooneyās system. This team will be much better next year for several reasons. First, all the new guys will put on some muscle ā Richmond was one of the skinniest teams Iāve even seen ā and Mooney will have full use of two key seniors in Oumar Sylla and Gaston Moliva. Both missed most or all of the season. The Spiders have young kids who can shoot (Butler, Morris) and big forward Dan Geriot has star potential. Do-it-all swingman David Gonzalvez was a revelation. More beef on the youngsters, the return of Moliva inside and better point play could give Richmond 5-7 additional wins. At the very least, the A-10 RPI will improve.
ST. BONAVENTURE. What can I say: The tenure of Anthony Solomon was a disaster. Instead of building with four-year recruits, he kept applying bandaids, except Solomon was no surgeon and he committed coaching malpractice. Bona has to get a coach with experience and recruiting ability in the Northeast. A guy who can find hidden gems (like Baron did so often). The A-10 can simply not afford to have a team constantly losing 20 games a year and stinking it up in noncon play. Is Ron Everhart available? Seriously, the next coach better be prepared to take his lumps. This is very little talent on the current roster. It might have less talent than even the Duquesne roster Everhart first inherited. Here is a team that should sched down, down, down next year, RPI and SOS be damned.
SAINT JOSEPHS. A healthy Hawks squad has to be considered a major contender for the league title next year. The frontcourt will be the best in the league. Nivins is a stud (though 32 blocks is weak!) and Pat Calathes is the most versatile player in the league (If only the boneheaded mistakes would disappear). The talented but young guards got plenty of experience and should benefit from a full off-season in the Hawks program. Key Iowa State transfer Tasheed Carr will be a big help at the swing spots. I expect the Hawks to score more easily and defend more consistently in 2007-08. Size, talent, experience, shooting, depth. It will all be here. The one thing that has to happen is one of the frosh guards has to step up bigtime in the outside shooting/scoring department. Someone to run around picks and force defenders to chase them, a la Pat Carroll or Chet Stachitas. That would really open up the inside for Nivins. (Martelli has historically liked to work from outside in, not inside out like this season).
SAINT LOUIS. Perhaps the most disappointing team in the A-10. The Bills struggled in conference play ā losing to Duquesne at home and Bonaventure on the road ā after a fine performance in the noncon slate. Saint Louis really should be dancing. The reasons they are not: the backsliding of center Ian Vouyoukas, who was inconsistent all year; and the poor recruiting of coach Brad Soderberg. The Billikens had less true depth than perhaps any team in the league and they struggled when the inevitable injuries cropped up ā especially to super soph guard Kevin Lisch. Swingman Luke Meyer did yeomanās work and Tommie Liddell is emerging as a star, but Soderberg did not fill his bench with enough talented players. While the Bills will be competitive next year ā Lisch and Liddell alone should get St. Louis to the .500 mark ā itās hard to see how they improve after the graduation of Vouyoukas. The only way that will happen is if 5th-year senior Bryce Husak, who did improve markedly, makes yet another big leap.
TEMPLE. The Owls lose undersized power forward Dion Dacons and erratic swingman Dustin Saliberry, but those losses can be overcome if some of the incoming frosh bigmen help out inside. Lack of size (and rebounding) killed Temple this year. Dunphy needs someone to guard the post, block some shots and rebound. The defense suffered terribly because of poor post defense. The offense is another story. Temple had the leagueās top two scorers, and both return next season. Mark Tyndale showed much more discipline in his offense and Dionte Christmas will be a POY candidate. Little used frosh Ryan Brooks showed great promise late in the year as a shooter/slasher and energetic body on the floor. Point play is inconsistent. The Owls need better distribution. Still, I expect some improvement in Dunphyās second year. I think a .500 record or better is likely.
XAVIER. Sure, the Muskies lose Justin Doellman, Justin Cage and Brandon Cole, but Xavier will still be one of the most talented teams in the league. The backcourt of Lavender and Burrell is arguably the leagueās best, and clearly the most experienced. Josh Duncan is one of the best big forwards in the league. Soph-to-be Derrick Brown has stardom written all over him. And there are lots of talented reserves in the stable to pitch in ā PF Jason Love, PG Johnny Wolf, swingmen BJ Raymond and Adrion Graves. Plus throw in the very talented transfer CJ Anderson, a big scorer at Manhattan. Xavier is now the flagship of the A-10. What the school needs to do now is to make itself a national name.
Link: Thoughts on next year
I am reading through postseason assessments from the respective A-10 local newspapers and will post those as well.