WH Ranks the Teams at this point

[URL=http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/383763-ranking-teams.html]Ranking the Teams[/URL]

[QUOTE=WH]Now to my snapshot of the league rankings. Obviously some teams have played more than others, and we’ll see a lot of flip-flopping. Here is how I would order the league two weeks into a still very young season.

  1. RHODE ISLAND (No. 2 preseason). The Rams keep starting slow and coming on strong in the second half, but that has to change. Still can’t argue with 5-0, especially with Jimmy Baron and Kaheim Seawright not quite up to their usual standards yet. Sophs Lamont Ulmer and Keith Cothran have been terrific.

  2. DUQUESNE (No. 4 preseason). The Dukes haven’t played the toughest teams, but they have crushed their opposition. This team might have more key ingredients than any other in the A-10, but the program is not battle toughened - yet. I love the freshmen Bill Clark and Damian Saunders. Everhart is building a PROGRAM.

  3. ST. JOSEPH’S (No. 3 preseason). The Hawks should have beaten Syracuse in the Dome and they beat a solid midmajor, Boston University, on the road. Iowa State transfer Tasheed Carr is all he was cracked up to be, running the point and giving St. Joe’s added toughness. The Hawks have the size that URI lacks and the battle toughness Duquesne has yet to develop. They might be No. 1 quite soon.

  4. ST. LOUIS (No. 8 preseason). I had a hard time believing Majerus could make the Bills a legit contender with the roster he was given, but he just might. Heck, he managed to get 20 points out of Bryce Husak! I said last week that Ricky Harris of UMass was a likely shoo-in for Most Improved Player. Not if Husak continues to play like this.

The defense will be sound all year and the Bills probably won’t beat themselves very often. St. Louis hung tough at Pittsburgh against a clearly superior Panthers team. If Majerus can gin up the offense a bit, I like this team’s chances of some kind of postseason bid. Juco power forward Barry Eberhardt is an inside-out scorer and frosh Paul Eckerle is another long-range shooter the Bills can put on the floor.

  1. MASSACHUSETTS (No. 9 preseason). The 4-1 Minutemen, along with the Dukes, are the most explosive team in the A-10. UMass hit 15 treys to tie the school record in a blowout victory over a solid Wisconsin Green-Bay team. It was even more impressive that they won without starting PG Chris Lowe. If Lowe hadn’t gotten hurt vs. Northern Illinois, UMass might be undefeated.

Gary Forbes is playing like a First or Second Team performer and Etienne Brower, who was hurt most of last year, has been terrific. The biggest surprise, though, is little acclaimed BU transfer Tony Gaffney, a springy 6-9 athlete who plays excellent defense even though he’s a bit thin. Wiry strong and quick feet and hands, though. Gaffney has played more than 7-footer Luke Bonner because of his defense, rebounding and ability to get out on the break.

I don’t know if UMass has the size, defense and decision making to hang with the A-10’s best – big St. Joe’s and Duquesne teams in particular - but watch out for my Minutemen. They can score a lot of points fast and beat anyone in the A-10. Spurtibility is one of the big separators in college ball, and UMass has it.

  1. XAVIER (No. 1 preseason). The loss to Miami isn’t a bad one, but the supposed best team in our league should win this game. Instead, the game revealed what concerned me about Xavier before the season started. Experienced depth is thin, the team lacks size and the Muskies are a bit soft defensively. Still, there’s a lot of talent on this team. If Lavender plays like he did last year, Xavier will be in the race until the last week and there’s no way they end up in this spot. If Brown and Anderson play like they are capable, Xavier has to be considered one of the favorites. I just don’t think there’s much of a gap between the league’s top 4 teams.

  2. GEORGE WASHINGTON (No 6 preseason). I might have rated the Colonials higher until today’s bad news. The 2-0 Colonials will have to go the year without Travis King, perhaps the best underclassman point guard in the league. He fractured his knee cap and now Hobbs has to find a replacement. Mo Rice can play some point, but he’s much better off the ball. Frosh Miles Beauty could get a long look, or Va Tech transfer Wynton Witherspoon could also fill in. Walkon Johnny Lee, all 5-8 of him, is also a possibility for limited minutes.

Very unfortunate news. GW was going to be very good again, and even without King, the Colonials will be competitive. This could mean a slide, though, and give other A-10 teams lower in the pecking order a chance to move up. Another source of concern is a wrist injury to Rob Diggs, who was going to make a bid for All-Conference status this year. The good news? Witherspoon is do-it-all kind of offensive player. Plus Rice and rising soph Damian Hollis has yet to get it going, so watch out. GW goes next to UMBC. It will be interesting to see how the Colonials fare against a team that has beaten two of our weaker teams (LaSalle and Richmond) on their own home floors.

  1. TEMPLE (No. 11 preseason). Horrible loss to Charleston, but Temple has the pieces to be better than last year. A couple of good wing scorers (Tyndale and Christmas), a legit option in the post (frosh Lavoy Allen), a bothersome post defender (Olmos) and plenty of athleticism. Ball-handling has been a bugaboo, but it will get better, and the defense should improve over the season. The Owls also need to shoot more accurately and share the ball, like Dunphy’s best teams at Penn did. I expect Tyndale and Christmas to get more help from sophomores Ryan Brooks and Luis Guzman, both of whom have shown promise. This year it’s all about Dunphy. He’s got enough talent to generate a winning record.

9) CHARLOTTE (No. 10 preseason). The Niners are deeper, bigger and more athletic and they are playing much better defense. Those characteristics will win some games. The Niners are also young or inexperienced and lack a proven scorer aside from Leemire Goldwire. Those characteristics will cost some games. Pepperdine transfer Mike Gerrity will add scoring punch at point when he suits up in late December, but it will take time to develop a second and third major scoring option. Lutz has plenty of raw materials to work with. It’s just going to take time. A top half finish in the league is not out of the question if the team jells by late January.

10) DAYTON (No. 7 preaseason). The Flyers are harder to gauge this early, but it’s a problem when Brian Roberts has to play point and be the top scorer. It’s also a problem when Dayton gets too little offense from its bigmen and perimeter scorers aside from Roberts. Soph bigman Kurt Huelsman has not been a factor yet and coach Gregory has weirdly decided to bring Charles Little off the bench as the 6th man. I bet this failed experiment ends soon. The Flyers don’t have so much talent that they can sit Little to start each game. That’s overcoaching in my view.

The good news is that superfrosh Chris Wright is as good as his press clippings and juco center Thiago Cordeiro looks like he can help. Now if only Wisconsin transfer Mickey Perry could suit up now and somebody – London Warren, Andres Sandoval, the frosh Thomas – could earn the right to supplant Roberts as the main ball-handler. The Flyers won’t end this low, but they have a lot of work to do.

  1. FORDHAM (No. 5 preseason). The Rams started off well in their first 1 ½ games and have faltered since, getting blown out at Missouri and Syracuse. A senior-laden team like this should be playing better, but the Rams are only getting semi-steady scoring from three players and the defense has been surprisingly poor. Senior PG Kevin Anderson, WF Sebastian Greene and PF Michael Binns have mostly been nonfactors on offense. Unless those seniors step up, Fordham is not going to the postseason. The Rams are outclassed athletically by most A-10 teams and their offense is likely to rank in the bottom half. Senior leadership and experience can only take a team so far.

I still think this team will come around by A-10 play, like it normally does, but the Rams are not crafting an at-large portfolio and the imbalanced conference schedule is tougher. Whitt has done a good job rebuilding the program, but he failed to recruit well after Dunston’s class. Only one nonsenior is a major contributor, Butler, though frosh Mike Moore is emerging as another. A few other players have ability, but Whitt has not developed their talent.

  1. RICHMOND (No. 12 preseason). The Spiders are talented but oh so young, and once again they miss Gaston’s Moliva’s physical presence inside. He’s still out with a foot fracture. The Spiders might not have lost late leads at home to Norfolk State and UMBC had he played. I like the freshman recruiting class. At least three kids look like eventual starters and PG Kevin Anderson is going to be a good one.

The bigger problem is the sophomore class. Dan Geriot and David Gonzalvez are among the two best second-year players in the league, but both are struggling to adopt to their roles as “the man.” Gonzo in particular thinks it’s his job to go 1 on 5 to win close games in the final minute. He needs to learn when to step down or step aside in addition to wanting to step up. This is a team game.

I expect a lot more up-and-down play from Richmond, with clear progress in February. Next year could be a breakout season for Mooney’s squad if the core of young players (Geriot, Gonzo, Anderson, Butler, Harper, Kevin Smith) stays intact.

  1. ST. BONAVENTURE. (No. 14 preseason). The Bonnies are playing hard and that’s a credit to new coach Mark Schmidt. The team is short on players, doesn’t have a real post option and point guard is a problem, but the Bonnies have three wins already. Frosh Hillary Haley, an athletic slasher, is a keeper a small forward and senior Michael Lee is playing hard every game for the first time in his life. The X-factor is wing scorer Fereti, who can put up points fast. Schmidt need to developing struggling frosh PG Malcom Eleby because Tyler Relph is not a ball distributor.

Despite a good start, I still think Bona finishes last in the league. The numbers just don’t add up. There is almost no quality depth on this team and I don’t see how they hold up over a long season. Refreshing to see the Bonnies playing competitively again, though.

  1. LASALLE (No. 13 preseason). Suspect ball-handling, lack of outside shooting, very little size or post offense – we saw all this last year. The Explorers have plenty of athletes, but coach Giannini has not utilized them in a faster attack. With primary ballhandler Ruben Guillandeaux out with a wrist injury, the Explorers will probably continue to struggle. No one else on the team is a seasoned distributor (not that RG is, either).

I like the quality of the roster, but not the makeup. LaSalle has more Division 1 players than at any time since it joined the A-10, but coach G is missing the two essential ingredients – a decent space eater in the post and a quick dribble-penetrating point guard. And of course the team is young and lacks a leader. Senior shooter Darnell Harris is spotup shooter and soph Rodney Green is not ready to be option No. 1. While I am not about to anoint Ruben G, he showed some budding leadership qualities last year and would give this offense more direction. He’s easily the best the team has at point, so his good health is crucial. A solid point guard (who can shoot) is better than none at all.
[/QUOTE]

I wasn’t surprised to see us get bumped up a spot so far. We’ve played well to be so young and inexperienced even with the loss today. GO NINERS!!!

Anticipating a Charlotte win, I had a post ready (with Charlotte 4-1) ranking each team on its ability to get-the-job-done. The Charlotte-Monmouth was the 50th non-con game and was the only game played today.

Getting the job done
3-0 Duquesne:Outscored opponents by 127 points in 3 games (not a typo)
5-0 Rhode Island: Best start in 17 years, beat tough UAB team.
2-0 George Washington: Undefeated after 2 games
4-1 Charlotte: Good wins, one narrow loss to Georgia Tech
3-1 St. Louis: Drama with Majerus/Liddell - road loss to Pitt
2-1 Saint Joseph’s: Fell just short in road loss to Syracuse
4-1 Massachusetts: Won 80% of games - road loss to Northern Iowa
3-2 St. Bonaventure: Playing better than the worst teams in the country.
1-1 Dayton: Road woes continue
1-1 Xavier: Anticipated champion cannot lose to Miami, OH
2-3 Richmond: 2 brutal losses following strong effort vs. Memphis
1-1 La Salle: lost to UMBC…at home
1-2 Fordham: Blown out twice
1-3 Temple: A blowout, an epic choke, a 25 pt. collapse, and an air ball @ 5’
Not getting the job done

Total 33-17

(Guess I should probably move Charlotte down now)

[QUOTE]1) RHODE ISLAND (No. 2 preseason).
2) DUQUESNE (No. 4 preseason).
3) ST. JOSEPH’S (No. 3 preseason).
4) ST. LOUIS (No. 8 preseason).
5) MASSACHUSETTS (No. 9 preseason).
6) XAVIER (No. 1 preseason).
7) GEORGE WASHINGTON (No 6 preseason).
8) TEMPLE (No. 11 preseason).
9) CHARLOTTE (No. 10 preseason).
10) DAYTON (No. 7 preaseason).
11) FORDHAM (No. 5 preseason).
12) RICHMOND (No. 12 preseason).
13) ST. BONAVENTURE. (No. 14 preseason).
14) LASALLE (No. 13 preseason). [/QUOTE]

Surprising. The new power poll knocks Xavier from 1st to 6th. Temple gets bumped above Charlotte? Dayton is bumped below Charlotte? I’d still leave the Bonnies in the cellar, even at 3-2.

[QUOTE=survivor45;270330]Surprising. The new power poll knocks Xavier from 1st to 6th. Temple gets bumped above Charlotte? Dayton is bumped below Charlotte? I’d still leave the Bonnies in the cellar, even at 3-2.[/QUOTE]

I can definitely see where WH is coming from on Temple. The team had two collapses in the 2nd half against CofC and Providence. Providence looks like they will be a force in the BE this year and they not only beat Temple but went on to knock off #18 Arkansas by 16 doing it without argubly their best player in junior Sharaud Curry who has averaged double-digits his whole career including 15.3 PPG last year. While the Friars went down to a much improved Miami in the finals their RPI should be top 50 by year’s end and a probable NCAA Tournament birth.

CofC is also much improved and they should contend for the SoCon title this year with Davidson and App State. Bobby Cremins’s team has a balanced attack and while their record is 1-3 they have faced tough competition early (UNCW, Arkansas, Temple, and Houston). Frosh Antwaine Wiggins and Andrew Goudelock are the team’s 2 and 4 leading scorers and their play should be in ripe form due conference time.

Temple is a scary team to play for the simple fact that Christmas and Tyndale can drop 30 on you any night or even both on the same night. Freshman Lavoy Allen should improve their inside game as the season longs and they aren’t getting too bad of play out of other big man Sergio Olmos. What WH is thinking is that Dunphy will have Temple pulling out these games they are losing late and if they had pulled out those two games they would have been as high as 3 or 4 on that list.

This looks to be the toughest year to figure since we’ve been in the A10. There are no dominant teams at this point and there will be plenty of surprises this year. Wouldn’t want to bet the house on predicting the outcome of the league standings this year.

I take issue with Temple…we are better than them just looking at game results (never seen them play). Those guys are giving up 25 point leads.

URI is not the best team in this league. I’d rank the Dukes and St Joes above them. St Joe’s needs a bench, Dukes need to beat a good team to prove the blowout wins are legit. URI has struggled mightily against some bad teams. They are what we would be if we hit one more FT against Ga Tech & Monmouth. WH is giving them too much credit for pulling out W’s against bad teams.

WH is has me scratching my head. He has Temple rated higer than he had them in the preseason???

Temple would be dead last for me. Pissing away lead after lead they way they have would have me pulling my hair out if I was a Temple fan. Its been bad.

As always, WH is right on with his analysyis. Too bad about King at GW, especially with the way Diggs has “blown-up” so far this season.

Can’t say that I argue with URI being #1 right now. They are winning and that’s pretty much all that matters. Fordham is definitely the biggest disappointment so far.

GO NINERS! GO A-10!

Hard to argue with 5-0, NA. URI is taking care of business so far, which Charlotte certainly has not done. The better teams make those free throws and pull out those close games. The lesser ones do not. And even though Rhody got off to slow starts, they came on like gangbusters in the second half, and that’s what good teams do. The gap here is a bit wider than you think. Plus Rhody gets credit based on last year’s performance. This team is only going to get better.

That said, I’ll update my power poll each week and the ratings will shift. If I were a betting man, I’d be leaning toward St. Joe’s or Duquesne.

I do like Charlotte, though. Weird to see a Niners team under Lutz struggle to score. Been awhile since he’s had a team like that. When Gerrity comes aboard, I wonder if he’ll be up to snuff defensively. The offense will improve, but the defense simply has to stick.

As for Temple, I have seen all four its games. The Owls have two established wing scorers compared to one for Charlotte and I like Temple’s frosh bigman, Lavoy Allen, better at this stage, even though I haven’t see Jones live yet. Temple’s problem is the opposite of Charlotte. The Owls can score, but they need to tighten their defense. No reason why they cannot do it, but it’s been a problem in the second half of games.

Of course, these are just snapshots and a lot will change. I certainly would not bet on Temple finishing ahead of Charlotte. Right now both schools are in similar places.

[QUOTE=W.H.;270378]Hard to argue with 5-0, NA. URI is taking care of business so far[/QUOTE]

They have beat Brown, Stetson, and Florida Atlantic, and they strugled to do that. Hitting an extra free throw does not make them the NE Patriots of this league. They remind me more of UVa in football for most of this season. Winning close games but no one takes them seriously as the top team in the league.

The coming on late in games is absolutely worthless. The Niners have been down at halftime frequently this year, only to pull out W’s. Does that make us one of the top teams in the league? No.

I’ll say it again - URI is 2 free throws better than us so far. I am more impressed with St Joe’s and Duquesne, though we won’t really know what the latter is until Dec 5th.

Put another way, if URI really is the best team in the A10, we’re toast. Juan Bid again.

[QUOTE=casstommy;270374]
Temple would be dead last for me. Pissing away lead after lead they way they have would have me pulling my hair out if I was a Temple fan. Its been bad.[/QUOTE]

There’s absolutely no way Temple should be last, they haven’t lost to UMBC like La Salle and Richmond has. Richmond and La Salle should be on the bottom along with the Bonnies. Temple hasn’t lost to a bad team yet and took a Providence team to the wire.

[QUOTE=NinerAdvocate;270383]They have beat Brown, Stetson, and Florida Atlantic, and they strugled to do that. Hitting an extra free throw does not make them the NE Patriots of this league. They remind me more of UVa in football for most of this season. Winning close games but no one takes them seriously as the top team in the league.

The coming on late in games is absolutely worthless. The Niners have been down at halftime frequently this year, only to pull out W’s. Does that make us one of the top teams in the league? No.

I’ll say it again - URI is 2 free throws better than us so far. I am more impressed with St Joe’s and Duquesne, though we won’t really know what the latter is until Dec 5th.

Put another way, if URI really is the best team in the A10, we’re toast. Juan Bid again.[/QUOTE]

You’ve seen to forget that the Rams beat Mike Davis’s UAB Blazers. The Blazers are boasting a pretty stout recruiting class and Robert Vaden (Indiana) is eligible.

NA, the Rams return every key player from last year’s 19-14 team that beat Xavier in the conference tournament and got to the A-10 final. Not sure why you don’t take this into account. This really is a good team and I take them seriously. Charlotte and Lutz should as well, and I have no doubt they will.

Coming on late in games is worthless? I know you are not happy with the Monmouth loss, but yikes!

Coming back late in games is a fundamental part of what all good teams do in any sport. Good teams know when to clamp down on defense and get that needed score on offense. It’s exactly for this reason that I think Charlotte can be pretty good this year and better than most prognosticators forecast. What you point out – the Niners’s ability to come back in the second half against High Point, App State and Georgia Tech – is actually a good thing! I am surprised you don’t recognize it as such.

Bad teams fold down the stretch. Good ones come on strong. Except for the Monmouth game, Charlotte has been meeting the test.

I didn’t say they suck WH, I just dont think they’re #1. I’d say #3, [U]so far[/U].

BTW, what they did last year is irrelevent. That’s only weak material for the preseason mags. We’re 5 games in now.

NA, why is what they did (or we, etc.) last year irrelevant? It set the tone and expectations for this season. When 06-07 began, URI lost some games it probably shouldn’t have and once Baron scrapped the grind-it-out offense for an up-tempo one, the Rams really turned their season around, not to mention probably saved the coach’s job.

Anyway, this season is young. I wouldn’t mind being 5-0 as well, no matter who we’ve played.

You've seen to forget that the Rams beat Mike Davis's UAB Blazers. The Blazers are boasting a pretty stout recruiting class and Robert Vaden (Indiana) is eligible.

I seem to have noticed they’re 1-3 with some not so good loses.

Here’s a timely piece on URI…

Projo.com: 3 leaders, supporting cast could make Rams big hit

As far as UAB goes (actually 2-3), I know Mike Davis can’t believe his luck with the season-ending injury to Paul Delany plus Jeremy Mayfield being academically ineligible. Fortunately, Channing Toney will be eligible after the fall semester, though that doesn’t replace the loss of C-USA First Teamer Delany.

[QUOTE=CharSFNiners;270408]I seem to have noticed they’re 1-3 with some not so good loses.[/QUOTE]

Are you talking about Temple? I was talking about Rhody Rams. BTW the only other Rams in this conference would be Fordham and they weren’t even in discussion at this point. Rhody is 5-0, not 1-3.

BTW, I explained Temple earlier, how can you not count losses against Top 10 Tennesee on the road, and a team that will probably be ranked at some point in the season in Providence. CofC isn’t a bad loss, they should be top 3 in the much improved SoCon.

NB, I think SF was referring to UAB.

Anyway, I think you would have to consider Temple’s loss to CofC a bad loss in HOW they lost, not that they lost to Cremins & Co. (though the Owls should beat a SoCon team that is probably still a year or two away from contending for an NCAA bid).