WH has started an interesting thread about the state of Atlantic 10 men’s hoops on the A-10 Board:
[b]Why is YOUR program down?[/b]Caution: This is a long post.
Fans on the Saint Louis board are once again revisiting their decision to join the A-10 over the MVC and pooh-poohing the league. I see similar derogatory comments on most of the fan boards these days (The league sucks, yada, yada, yada). One well-known poster on the Dayton board even made the claim (ridiculous in my view) that no one in the whole country respects the A-10, but many respect the MVC.
A lot has certainly changed since the A-10 sent two teams to the Elite 8 three years ago and got four teams into the Dance.
We’ve discussed a number of reasons for the relative decline of the A-10 and whether it’s just part of an inevitable cycle. To some extent, that’s certainly the case, but as we all know, the longer term trend since the mid 1990s has been down. Clearly, changes have to be made – and are being made – to rectify the situation.
Some of the reasons we’ve discussed our familiar. Poor management at the top of the league. Blowups or scandals at a handful schools. Bad coaching hires. Subpar or uneven recruiting. Injuries. Academic troubles. And so on.
I’d like to drill down further and find out from fans of each team what they think accounts for why their program has struggled since the A-10’s peak in late 1990s (getting five teams into the tourney several times).
I’d also like to know why they think their program is getting better. Or why it’s not and whether that will change soon.
To start it off, I’ll give my short summary of how I view the failings (or success) of each program.
Before I do that, I rate the programs on a numerical basis, combining current and future assessments (which is why Duquesne rates somewhat better than Fordham even though Fordham is clearly the better team now).
I use five categories, assigning five points to each. 1)Recruiting. 2)Coaching. 3)Administration. 4)Facilities. 5)fan support. Top score is 25 points.
I’d say a score of 15-19 suggests a program in is average to pretty good shape if the direction is “up” or “even,” though the school could do better. A score of 20 points or more means a program is in excellent shape.
Charlotte. 18 points. Direction: down.
Dayton. 22 points. Direction: up.
Duquesne. 16 points. Direction: up.
Fordham. 14 points. Direction: up.
George Washington. 17 points. Direction: even.
LaSalle. 15 points. Direction: up.
Massachusetts. 19 points. Direction: up.
Rhode Island. 17 points. Direction: even.
Richmond. 17 points. Direction: up.
St. Bonaventure. 12 points. Direction: down.
Saint Joseph’s. 20 points. Direction: up.
Saint Louis. 17 points. Direction: up.
Temple. 18 points. Direction: up.
Xavier. 22 points. Direction: up.
My response: We need more teams scoring a minimum of 20 points. I feel confident about the status of Dayton, St. Joe’s and Xavier over the next few years but that’s it. We have a bunch of average programs and need more to separate themselves from the pack. We only have one program in dire straits right now, St. Bonaventure, though a trio are in the rebuilding stage (LaSalle, Richmond and Duquesne).
TEAM BY TEAM SNAPSHOT
[b]CHARLOTTE. It’s obligatory for me to get this out of the way and blame the move to the A-10. Some Charlotte and Saint Louis fans blame the demise of Conference USA for their troubles. Let’s just say this argument applies to both teams, though I don’t believe it’s the main factor at all.
In Charlotte’s case, I would cite subpar recruiting and poor coaching as the primary culprits. Lutz has not recruited enough high-impact players, especially four-year types. It’s really showing this year. What’s more, Lutz has never coached this poorly before. His teams since joining the A-10 have been dreadful defensively. There’s just no excuse for such awful defense. As for the offense, run and chuck treys seems to be the order of the day. Where has all the teamwork, discipline and sharing of the ball gone?
Facilities are good and fan support will be there if the Niners win.[/b]
DAYTON. The Flyers had a lull in recruiting in Oliver Purnell’s final two seasons and it’s taken Brian Gregory some time to rebuild the roster. Also, the key transfer of freshman point guard Trent Meacham two years ago, as we all know by now, cost Dayton dearly last season. Gregory has taken some hits, but the Flyers appear on the mend. The team is still smallish in the frontcourt but Dayton has some shooters and the Flyers play defense. This is a program I don’t worry about. It appears that Gregory has a nice pipeline of good recruits coming in and some experienced players to keep the program from suffering too big a drop in coming years.
Facilities and fan support are as good as any in the league.
DUQUESNE. The Dukes have suffered through terrible administrative support and awful hiring decisions for the past decade. The program is going to suffer this season as well, but it looks like Duquesne is finally starting to act like a modern university when it comes to athletics. They hired a smart young AD and he made a fine hire in Ron Everhart. The new coach has already infused the roster with a massive upgrade in talent, though much of it won’t be on full display until next year. The Dukes actually could become a middle-of-the-pack program next season. That would be welcome news for the whole league and a boost to A-10 RPI.
The Dukes’ arena isn’t bad and the school is making improvements, but I not even sure that will bring them up to par. Fan support is weak for good reason. Hopefully the winning will change all that.
FORDHAM. The Rams made a big mistake moving to the nonscholarship Patriot League before joining the A-10 and had a huge rebuilding job once the school arrived to the league in 1996. Original coach Nick Macarchuk did what he could and the school rightly sought a new coach, but NBA retread Bob Hill actually set the program back and the Rams suffered their worst season ever. Fordham made a good hire with Dereck Whittenburg four years ago and the Rams look ready to post their first winning record since joining the A-10 and perhaps make the postseason. Fordham is no longer a drag on the league, though noncon performance could be improved.
It’s worth noting that the current squad is very experienced. It’s also no surprise that teams with good experience such as Fordham, Dayton and Xavier are doing so well. UMass and St. Louis also have enough experience to make a difference.
Fordham has the worst facilities in the league and fan support is lukewarm. I think a new arena is vital if the school ever wants to be consistently in the top half of the A-10.
GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Colonials suffered through some coaching turmoil in the late 1990s when Mike Jarvis moved to St. John’s. Tom Penders was hired after being fired at Texas. He did a good job his first year with holdover players from the Jarvis regime, but poor recruiting, poor coaching and lack of program discipline ruined the rest of the Penders experiment. He left five years ago and Karl Hobbs was brought in. After taking his lumps while rebuilding the GW roster, Hobbs has turned the school into one of the better programs in the league. The program is in very good shape RIGHT NOW.
Can Hobbs sustain it? He’s still recruiting pretty well, but the school says it can’t afford to build a new arena to replace a mediocre Smith Center. Fan support has been lackluster until very recently. GW gets very little press in DC. And sooner or later Hobbs will be hired by a bigger school and GW will have to go through another transition.
The current team might have been terrific, but Danilo Pinnock unwisely declared early for the draft, key transfer Cheyenne Moore got hurt to start the season, talented frosh Montrell McDonald transferred and top recruit Jeremy Wise was not admitted in light of the bad press last spring from GWs admission of Omar Williams four years ago.
LASALLE. Bad administration hurt this program for a long time. The Explorers entered the league in 1996 after a disastrous move to a Midwestern conference (MCC?). They were led by coach Speedy Morris but stuck with him too long and remained near the bottom of the league for the first five years. Billy Hahn, a Maryland assistant, was hired as coach 5 years ago, but he proved to be a bad hire. He recruited well his first year but wasn’t a great game coach. He was let go after the rape-scandal-that-wasn’t which rocked LaSalle three years ago.
The Explorers, under a new administration, have made better decisions since then, the biggest being the addition of coach John Giannini. Giannini coached LaSalle to its first winning record in the A-10 last year, but now he’s got to rebuild a roster depleted by the rape scandal and by poor recruiting in Hahn’s final two years. Giannini has done a good job recruiting so far, but the team is incredibly young at almost every key position, lacks size and depth and doesn’t shoot especially well. It’s going to take a year or two to make the Explorers very competitive again. Only then would LaSalle achieve the stability that has long eluded the school.
The facilities are subpar and need an upgrade if LaSalle wants to remain competitive for the long term. Fan support has been lackluster until recently. If the Explorers win, the fans will come back.
MASSACHUSETTS. The Minutemen have struggled almost every year since John Calipari left at the end of 1996, but the program’s fortunes really took a turn for the worse when Big East retread Steve Lappas was hired six years ago. He was a spotty recruiter and so-so game coach game who left the program in worse shape than he found it. UMass made a solid hire in Travis Ford two years ago and appears on the mend. Recruiting has improved and the team has plenty of depth. Ford still has to prove himself as a coach at the A-10 level, but the Minutemen appear to be on the rise again. How far they can go is open to question, though.
Facilities are very good and fan support, while poor in recent years, will be there if UMass wins.
RHODE ISLAND. The Rams suffered through disastrous coaching and administrative decisions in the late 1990s, but the program has been relatively stable for the past five years. Jim Baron cleaned up the program and briefly got the Rams back on the winning track. Recruiting is decent. URI built a nice new arena and fan support is strong when the team wins. And yet something is amiss. Baron did not manage personnel well enough and there is a big gap in recruiting classes. The current team is extremely young and small in the frontcourt. What’s more, in-game coaching has been spotty at best. Many URI fans have been calling for Baron’s head for two years and it’s hard to figure out where the Rams go from here.
RICHMOND. Like so many A-10 teams, the Spiders have endured plenty of instability in recent years. John Beilein, one of the top coaches in the country, left for West Virginia five years ago. Richmond then hired Jerry Wainwright from UNC Wilmington. He got the Spiders to the NCAAs once, but left for Depaul two years ago. Wainwright and the school clashed over his recruiting decisions. Many of his recruits were talented but questionable in the classroom. The messy divorce depleted the Richmond roster and forced new coach Chris Mooney to recruit a boatload of youngsters. Richmond might have the youngest starting seven in the country. There’s plenty of good young talent here, but Richmond will need another year or two to crank the program back up to where it belongs. Historically this is a very good basketball school.
ST. BONAVENTURE. The same old mantra we’ve seen from half-dozen schools in the A-10 in recent years. Bad administration, bad coaching, bad recruiting. The Weldergate scandal four years ago blew up the program. Then Bona made another fateful decision in hiring Anthony Solomon as head coach. He simply was a bad choice. He’s not recruited well enough and he’s the worst coach in the league. Now the Bonnies will have to look for another coach at year end. It’s an open question as to when this program gets back on its feet.
Facilities are decent and could be improved. Fan support is lackluster now, but very strong when the Bonnies are winning.
SAINT JOSEPH’S. The Hawks are young right now, especially at key positions, but the program has lots of talent and one of the best coaches in the country in Phil Martelli. Moreover, the school is refurbishing the Field House in a suitable upgrade for the 21th century. The big problem lately has been uneven recruiting. The Hawks have to rely on four freshman guards to handle the ball and defend the perimeter. The transfer of junior guard Abdullai Jalloh at the end of last summer was a big blow. If he wasn’t such a basketcase and stayed at St. Joe’s, the Hawks would be one of the best teams in the league right now. Martelli has used the Hawks’ Elite 8 run to improve recruiting, but there’s a big gap. The senior and sophomore classes are weak while the junior and freshmen classes are strong. As a result, the Hawks will struggle a bit this season as the young guards gain experience, but St. Joe’s should be back near the top of the league next year.
Facilities are subpar, but a major upgrade has been announced. Fan support is great and gives the Hawks a major homecourt advantage.
SAINT LOUIS. The Billikens play in a less-than-ideal arena but have just started building a new on-campus arena. Also, coach Brad Soderberg has upped the tempo after several years of playing keep-away with the ball. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Soderberg, while a good coach, has not recruited especially well. The senior class has one legit starter in Ian Vouyoukas and the sophomore class has two legit starters (and stars) in guards Kevin Lisch and Tommie Liddell. But that’s it. Saint Louis starts two players who should be coming off the bench and the bench itself is not very deep. The question is whether Soderberg can consistently recruit the kind of talent that his coaching prowess can translate into postseason bids. Maybe the new uptempo style and promise of a new arena will help him achieve those goals, but we haven’t seen much evidence yet.
Facilities will be very good in a few years and fan support is strong.
TEMPLE. The Owls’ program declined in the last five years of Hall of Famer John Chaney and was ripe for a change. He did not recruit or coach as well. A handful of key players became academic casualties. And the talent on hand was not always suited for the matchup zone. The demise of Temple is a big reason for the relative decline of the A-10.
The good news is that new coach Fran Dunphy is likely to restore Temple to where it belong – to the top of the A-10. It’s going to take a few years, though. The recruiting cupboard was almost bare and it will take Dunphy 2-3 years to restock the roster. For now, he has enough talent to keep the Owls competitive until the restoration arrives. Dunphy is a terrific coach and knows how to get the most out of what he has.
Facilities are terrific but fan support is lackluster. The Owls will draw again when they win, especially for big noncon games, though bottom-tier A-10 teams won’t get the same treatment.
XAVIER. The Musketeers are now one of the A-10 flagships, but that presents a dual-edged sword. When each new Muskies coach succeeds, he will become a target of bigger schools. Xavier missed the postseason entirely two years ago – a no-no for a flagship school – in large part because of the departure of Thad Matta to Ohio State three years ago. His replacement, Sean Miller, is turning out to be a good coach, but his inexperience cost the Muskies in the first one-and-a-half years of Miller’s reign. Xavier recruits well, plays an uptempo style that players like and appears to be attracting good scheduling partners among Big Six schools. Facilities are the best in the league and fan support is as good as anywhere else. Like Dayton, this is a program I don’t worry about, but on the other hand, I expect more from Xavier. They have to carry the torch like Temple and UMass of old and do some more damage in the postseason.
Link: Why is YOUR program down?