What needs to be done for us to qualify for the NCAA’s?
We are now 44 in the RPI[font=Verdana][size=12px] (18-6, 8-2) Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6…our strength of schedule is over 100 so that doesn’t help.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][/size][size=12px]I think we MUST beat Duqusne, St Joes, and GW.[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][/size][size=12px]Then I think we can beat X at home, but we’ll lose to UR, and then turn around and beat URI at their place.[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][/size][size=12px]Then I think we need to AT LEAST win one game in the tournament, but to be safe we need to get to the final. I just think our margin of defeat in some of these games is going to weigh on the committee.[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][/size][size=12px]Hope the guys get some good days off this week, and get refreshed for the home stretch…it’s going to be an exciting last few weeks.[/size][/font]
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Win out at home, beating Xavier at our place is important. We can split our two remaining road games URI and GW. I didn’t realize so many posters had last night down as a must win game. I really didn’t.
We still don’t have a bad RPI loss. I have no idea how the committee looks at the losses and how much they focus on the final score. If they put a lot of weight on margin of defeat in losses, no question, it will hurt us. But if they just look at the losses, I think we’re still in a good position.
To take the margin being a potential factor out of play, winning out at home is a must. I think we can afford one more L before the tourney starts, URI is the only one that wouldn’t hurt IMO.
5-2 over our last 7 was what most thought would get us an at-large bid. I don’t know that it will matter largely who the wins and losses come against, so long as we are 23-7 going into the conference tourney. RealtimeRPI was us going 5-1 the rest of the way, but they have us with a 2-point win over Xavier and a 1-point win over GW. Dayton would have been a bonus, as will a win over URI would be when we play them. We have to protect our home court and beat GW on the road to meet that 5-2 mark. Definitely doable if we play well, but the way we’ve played the last 4 games it’s not going to be easy.
This is the way I see it:
5-1 with at least 1 win in conf. tourney - NCAA
5-1 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - Bubble… probably in
4-2 with 1 win in conf. tourney - Bubble
4-2 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - NIT
[quote=“Max Power, post:6, topic:22363”]This is the way I see it:
5-1 with at least 1 win in conf. tourney - NCAA
5-1 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - Bubble… probably in
4-2 with 1 win in conf. tourney - Bubble
4-2 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - NIT[/quote]
[quote=“Max Power, post:6, topic:22363”]This is the way I see it:
5-1 with at least 1 win in conf. tourney - NCAA
5-1 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - Bubble… probably in
4-2 with 1 win in conf. tourney - Bubble
4-2 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - NIT[/quote]
Not as simple as that. We can’t drop the home game against Duquesne or Saint Joes. We need to win at least 2 of the 4 against Xavier, Richmond, @GW, and @URI. I’m thinking we’ll win the home games, probably drop the one @URI, and I’m not sure about the game at GW. That’s a tough environment anytime we play them, and it’ll be a battle. If we finish 5-1 with a loss at URI, I think we are in. Finishing 4-2 with a loss @GW, and @URI will put us on the bubble, but a win in AC would put us in safely.
I guess I’m crazy but I think we have a great schedule/opportunity for the last six games.
A week to rest and prepare, 4 of the last 6 at home, one of the road games is GW (yes, I know we didn’t play well against them last time).
Tied for the lead in the conference, 18-6 overall, personally I don’t think we’ve could asked for more heading into the season. All in all, I’m pretty psyched.
[quote=“Max Power, post:6, topic:22363”]This is the way I see it:
5-1 with at least 1 win in conf. tourney - NCAA
5-1 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - Bubble… probably in
4-2 with 1 win in conf. tourney - Bubble
4-2 with 0 wins in conf. tourney - NIT[/quote]
disagree with #3…if we go 4-2 beating St Joes and Duquene at home and win qtr final game in AC we’re in. figure we have at least 4 teams in NCAA from the conf so a trip to the semi-final gets us in EASY.
I would even go as far to say that if we went 3-3 and made it to the Conference final we’re a lock…
[quote=“hootie, post:9, topic:22363”]I guess I’m crazy but I think we have a great schedule/opportunity for the last six games.
A week to rest and prepare, 4 of the last 6 at home, one of the road games is GW (yes, I know we didn’t play well against them last time).
Tied for the lead in the conference, 18-6 overall, personally I don’t think we’ve could asked for more heading into the season. All in all, I’m pretty psyched.[/quote]
I think we have to finish the season by beating Duquesne, St Joes, and GW and winning 2/3 against X, Richmond, and RI to feel comfortable. I think thats enough to get us in. Anything less than that and I’d be really worried come selection sunday.
Of course, how we fair in the A10 tourney impacts everything.
[quote=“X-49er, post:5, topic:22363”]RealtimeRPI was us going 5-1 the rest of the way, but they have us with a 2-point win over Xavier and a 1-point win over GW.[/quote]Kenpom has us 2-4, with the wins over Duquesne and St. Joe’s.
[quote author=hootie link=topic=26089.msg441643#msg441643 date=1265910988]
I guess I’m crazy but I think we have a great schedule/opportunity for the last six games.
A week to rest and prepare, 4 of the last 6 at home, one of the road games is GW (yes, I know we didn’t play well against them last time).
Tied for the lead in the conference, 18-6 overall, personally I don’t think we’ve could asked for more heading into the season. All in all, I’m pretty psyched.
[/quoteyes…I said the same in the rpi thread, we need a sos bump and we are going to get it and opportunity
This thread has some comical remarks, we are a solid team and have 4 starters returning nxt year. Enjoy bubble talk from a young team
Some of you new posters need to find a clue how sports have tides in a season
That could happen too. I can see us going anywhere from 5-1 down to 2-4. We’re just too difficult to predict right now, and we haven’t been on all cylinders for a full game since maybe Richmond.
4-2 with a trip to the semifinals of the A-10 Tourney should get us an at-large bid.
5-1 the rest of the way should guarantee us one.
3-3 or worse over these last six and we’ll have to make the finals of the A-10 Tourney, at minimum.
This is a good time to bask in the notion that a certain, attainable record through our remaining schedule will make us feel COMFORTABLE on Selection Sunday. Think about where you were last year in February. Bask. Then move on.
Wrong…we could still get in without the automatic with 2 more losses (maybe even 3) if we still win 1-2 games in the conf. tourney depending on who it is.