https://x.com/CBB_Central/status/2044811557335417140
Matt responding to this:
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There arenât enough programs that can compete at these levels. If they breakaway they will have a hard time finding programs that can come with them unless they want to start revenue sharing with them. Otherwise, a lot of dead weight / perennial basement dwellers.
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Wish there was real transparency when it comes to NIL, rev share, etc. Right now just figures being thrown around that canât be verified due to a collusion of institutional secrecy.
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Fake news poster Shane Tuttle recently duped Dick Vitale as well.
clt says he is a numbers nerd, doesnât understand business. there is no ROI for NIL for the investors. just vanity projects. model is not sustainable
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He did say there will be separation between programs that generate ROI and those that donât.
clt asks how? you give money to an athlete to play one year for a school. even if you win the natty, what do you get?
You get fun.
The sustainability argument made above in that post may be ignoring the situations where ADs are borrowing money to may NIL which I would say is indeed unsustainable.
If itâs real rev share or a big donor footing the bill then itâs sustainable as long as the money is there and would go down as the money dries up.
Debt = unsustainable
Not debt = sustainable but the amounts will fluctuate with market conditions.
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I just donât see many big donors doing this long term. Itâs a huge investment that has a very short term life span unlike donating for facilities or even a coaches salary or buyout. Only one school wins the national championship and anything short of that just doesnât seem worth throwing away millions on players who will probably be gone the next year.
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Yeah, letâs be honest, the ROI on that 
that Happy Kuykendahl left on Ricky Roeâs front porch was a helluva lot better than NIL.
So the only schools not worried about the marketing aspect are the Ivy League and other elite schools like Johnâs Hopkins, NYU, etc. all the D3 elite academics?
Beyond that we are all on the hamster wheel of trying to be competitive and spending money.
This is why I keep waiting for a Duke, Stanford type school to just peace out.
Going to D3 would not affect them at all.
Whatâs interesting is that at the same time John McEnroe is decrying college tennis being rostered predominantly by international athletes.
FWIW, Illinois Stateâs menâs team had just one American. The Redbirdsâ 2026 conference champion womenâs team has none.