So, aside from our RPI suicide game against A and T, our nonconf schedule is over. How do you think we will do in conference play?
ODU L 6-7
WKU L 6-8
Marshal W 7-8
North Texas W 8-8
Rice W 9-8
UAB W 10-8
Middle TN W 11-8
FAU W 12-8
FIU W 13-8
A&T (nonconf) W 14-8
ODU L 14-9
UTEP L 14-10
UTSA W 15-10
LA Tech W 16-10
Southern Miss W 17-10
North Texas W 18-10
Rice W 19-10
WKU W 20-10
Marshal W 21-10
14-4 in conference record. We tie with UTEP for 2nd but they get the go ahead due to the head to head win.
Game 1 W
Game 2 W rematch vs UTEP
Game 3 L vs ODU
Overall 22-11 with an RPI around 78, get snubbed by the NIT. Alan Major stays.
It’s hard for me to believe that we could put together and 8 game win streak, but looking at the teams it doesn’t seem odd. CUSA is really that terrible.
9-9 would be the worst we do, but 11-7 is probably the best. I’ve seen us lose to too many inferior teams to believe it won’t happen again this year. Major gets fired if he finishes at .500 with this squad, otherwise he stays as the Admin wants to save face over another bad extension.
What we should do based on the talent we have:
ODU W 7-6 @WKU W 8-6 @Marshall W 9-6
North Texas W 10-6
Rice W 11-6 @UAB L 11-7 @Middle TN W 12-7
FAU W 13-7
FIU W 14-7
A&T (nonconf) W 15-7 @ODU L 15-8 @UTEP L 15-9 @UTSA W 16-9
LA Tech L 16-10
Southern Miss W 17-10 @North Texas W 18-10 @Rice W 19-10
WKU W 20-10
Marshall W 21-10
14-4 in Conf
1st rd bye
Title game- W
NCAA! 24-10! Woooo!
What we will likely do based on Alan Major:
ODU L 6-7 @WKU L 6-8 @Marshall W 7-8
North Texas W 8-8
Rice W 9-8 @UAB L 9-9 @Middle TN L 9-10
FAU L 9-11
FIU W 10-11
A&T (nonconf) W 11-11 @ODU L 11-12 @UTEP L 11-13 @UTSA L 11-14
LA Tech L 11-15
Southern Miss W 12-15 @North Texas W 13-15 @Rice W 14-15
WKU W 15-15
Marshall W 16-15
9-9 in conf
No 1st rd bye
1st round- W
Final record- 18-16
I have to believe that Major’s success in preseason tournaments will somehow translate into conference tournament success at some point. I also have to believe that Henry or someone else won’t let us lose. Winning 3 games in a row in CUSA isn’t really that much of a stretch to think of.
Other than GT we haven’t lost to a team below our level yet, and I don’t think GT was that much worse than us, so hopefully we can take care of things in conference to get a good seed in Birmingham. I just don’t see us losing to a middle to bottom of the barrel CUSA team. CUSA is just too bad.
[quote=“Ben H, post:13, topic:29289”]I have to believe that Major’s success in preseason tournaments will somehow translate into conference tournament success at some point. I also have to believe that Henry or someone else won’t let us lose. Winning 3 games in a row in CUSA isn’t really that much of a stretch to think of.
Other than GT we haven’t lost to a team below our level yet, and I don’t think GT was that much worse than us, so hopefully we can take care of things in conference to get a good seed in Birmingham. I just don’t see us losing to a middle to bottom of the barrel CUSA team. CUSA is just too bad.[/quote]
we thought the same thing last year but we still had at least four terrible losses. its not talent that im worried about, im worried about the focus to win three to four games in march in a row.
I’ll say 11-7, because I think we probably have another swoon in Feb-March, with one win in the conference tournament then lose in the semifinals to a team that we’ll all say we should be better than but probably aren’t.
Hey, how about we’re surprised by a better than expected season for the first time in probably 10+ years? I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Conference play is important for seeding, because we want to play fewer games (though if we end up bottom half with the talent on our roster and the awfulness of CUSA this year, Major should be let go before the season ends) and it’d be nice to build up some confidence after the beating the team has taken OOC.
If we lose a key guard to injury (especially Henry), then this is optimistic. If we lose one of our two post players (given Major and co. refuse to play Blakely big minutes in the 2nd half), then this is probably optimistic by about 4-5 wins/losses. I really hope we can avoid a key injury this year, we’ll see.
Any word on if the post player transfer from Auburn will be able to play in the spring? I assume since we haven’t heard, it will probably be a “no”, but this sounded like a possibility that could really help if he can at least provide another big body, 5 fouls, and grab a few rebounds (anything more would be a major boost to the team).
I’m definitely assuming that Sullivan will not be playing this year. If Sullivan could come back, I bet they play him, but I’ll be nervous about it given his concussion history.
11-7 +/- 1 win is probably what we are looking at. 5 of those ~7 losses will be after February 1st.
We’ll win 1 game in Birmingham, miss the NIT, major will be fired, and the cupboard will NOT be bare for us to find the right guy and get it turned around. Going to need some heavy duty machinery to dig the program out of this grave we are in, but maybe we’ll get someone that is up to the task.
*I’d love to be wrong and we reel off 20 wins between now and March including 3 in the conf tourney to get to the dance. The NIT is our absolute worst case scenario because it means probably another extension for AM so we can continue to recruit and waste high level talent.