https://twitter.com/ADavidHaleJoint/status/1687866997084680193
This sounds like a press release from the SID at a small college going defunctā¦it is sad, indeed.
This article does a really good job of working through the various scenarios, including the majority of the MWC members disbanding that league, though it glosses over how many NCAA basketball units that would lose (SDSUs championship run)ā¦
This seems the most likely to me:
If all four Pac-12 teams stay and the entire Mountain West joins them, including Hawaii in football only, there would be 16 members for football and 15 for basketball. Gonzaga, which flirted with defecting to the Mountain West in 2018, would be the coveted candidate for an even 16 in basketball.
Thatās definitely the best of a bad situation, the MWC version. I think if Iām being objective, I would prefer this as a leftover 4 fan, if disbanding the MWC so they can cherry pick isnāt on the table.
It also glosses over this:
On the subject of disbanding leagues - another possible protection of AAC expanding to 14 instead of 12 would be making it harder to disband the league. We know Aresco was thinking that the extra 2 teams provided protection from future single school defections, but I wonder if he thought of that too.
Agreed.
If they could get Gonzaga as well to balance Hawaii that would be a nice add.
This conference can survive and thrive.
If they try to get selective and start picking specific MWC schools and trying to pluck other schools from other conferences (for academic snobbery, business reasons, or whatever) they are going to fall flat in their face.
They need to do this, move fast to grab Gonzaga.
Rework the existing MWC TV contracts to include the new members and conference name (I would see no reason they would get ANY resistance on that) and if they negotiate well they may be able to extract a pro rata for the new schools cause they do bring some eyeballs. They might even be able to squeeze out a few extra bucks from the MWC TV partners.
The Comcast thing is a problem. They need to use this moment of goodwill that that they may have in the overall sports landscape and see if they can arrange a long term loan to pay that off ( or adjusted terms with Comcast) The loan will likely have to accompany a commitment from these schools to a GOR to keep them together until the loan is paid off.
They probably have a lot of goodwill right now in general terms. They need to strike while the iron is hot decisively and not screw around.
Getting rid of the smaller brands and schools is the next trend.
I may happen out of greed in the next round of contracts.
I may happen out of necessity during the next round of contracts if the TV revenue offers go down. The big conferences have never had to deal with that before.
BUT!
This situation with the PAC is worrisome.
No one seems to be talking about the fact that the PAC could not secure a good TV deal.
That means that the market was tapped out.
That could represent the first contraction in the TV market for CFB.
There is a lot of market pressure out there.
Decreasing cable subscriptions. (I heard a stat that itās been going down about 3million a year over the last 10 years).
The big professional leagues are only getting more popular and required for networks to have āmust seeā programming that will keep their networks from being dropped by cable companies and or customers. For example the NBA is expected to blow away their previous contract when they go out to bid in a few years.
Only the very top of CFB and CBB have any hope of competing with that.
There is also increased competition from other sports that offer cheaper programming for media outlets. Auto racing is having a renaissance, pickle ball, slam ball, XFL, USFL, the basketball league, womens pro soccer, it just goes on and on. There are only going to b a few properties that are considered top tier in the future to demand most of the dollars.
The net effect could be that the big conferences have to drop the smaller schools and combine the bigger schools to maintain revenue numbers.
My prediction is if that happens there will be a round of conference realignment to regionalize to cut cost in the future.
For example of Wake and Duke get kicked out of the big leagues. I could see us in a regional league with them (well into the future).
If the market forces hyper regionalization then how would this league grab you?
charlotte
ECU
App
Wake
Duke
Western Carolina
Campbell
Elon
Davidson (non football)
Gardner-Webb
NC A&T
Old Dominion
JMU
Liberty
Coastal
College of Charleston (not football)
A couple of assumptions here.
- NC Central would want to stay in the MEAC
- Davidson would stay in the pioneer league for football.
The PAC12 did have offers on the table a while back for around $20-25 million per school per year but they held out for more. They overvalued themselves & found out their true value.
clt says $50 is not a lot of money
That conference wasnāt staying together for less than $50m. They can claim they would, but they wouldnāt.
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UCLA and UConn have had notable large deficits as well:
I donāt even understand how schools are spending this kind of money.
Those deficits are completely unsustainable long term.
Especially if there are student fees being tapped for part of the total funding.
This is insanity.
Just cut spending. Have some freaking discipline!
Get your financial house in order using that Bit Ten money first THEN start to worry about competing for better coaches and facilities.
The salary for the womens basketball coach is ridiculous. Plus incentives!!! How could that be justified. Thereās no revenue from that sport.
You could get a coach for about 1/5 of that. (Iām only saying that much because I assume salaries are much higher up there).
Literally post it on linked in. Womenās basketball coach at Rutgers. 200K base salary plus benefits. Take the best candidate you get and move on. Thereās no reason to waste that money.
So stupid.
Summarization of previously posted The Athletic piece:
Was anyone able to future out how to use the sportico database to view the entire list?
I looked and looked and could not find that categories in the database.
The folks on Twitter (sorry Elon) acting like the Pac-4 are going to cherry pick a new conference seem delusional. They have zero leverage and a name that was apparently not good enough to get a deal necessary to keep their league intact.
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