Fantasy Baseball Experts - Need some Keeper advice

Pro Sports Fantasy Central
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I’m in the 8th year in my league (it’s going on 15 yrs). It’s a head to head, NL only, 10 team league. Auction style draft, players are signed to 3 year contracts, with a variable option after year two to re-sign players for up to 3 additional years at a cost of $5/year, beginning with the original 3rd year of the contract:

[U]Example[/U]: NA’s team drafts Ichiro in 2000 for $10. He costs me $10 in 2000, $10 in 2001, and prior to the start of 2002, I decide to option him for 3 years, so 2002-2005 ends up costing me $25 per year. In 2006, he’d be back in the FA pool, so the longest you can keep a player in our league is 6 years.

We get 7 keepers. I’m essentially down to 9. Here’s where I freeze. Do I keep the “sure thing” that’s at a higher premium, or do I risk injuries/replacement/trades/assignment for a younger player?

Here’s my list. BTW - team budget is $180. With that, we have to buy 16 players (9 hitters/7 pitchers) for an average of $11.25 per player. Scoring is standard for H2H leagues. Our league historically tends to value closers, strikeout P’s, big sluggers, and hitters that can platoon, because depth is always an issue, and signing Free Agents can be a pain in the ass (you typically have to drop a starter to replace an injured player):

  1. Russell Martin C $2 Usually don’t keep catchers, but for $2, he’s a steal
  2. Carlos Delgado 1B $30 Overpriced? Great lineup protection, but slumping horribly early
  3. Adrian Gonzalez 1B $20 Overpriced? Lots of potential. Yes, the P word.
  4. Bill Hall 2B/SS/3B/OF $3 The best value on my team if he puts up 2006 stats. Versatility.
  5. Hanley Ramirez SS $15 Should get lots of quality ABs and get on base to steal
  6. Juan Pierre OF $13 Good price a standout.
  7. Mike Pelfrey P $8 5th starter isnt even techinically on the roster yet.
  8. Takashi Saito RP $12 Good price even for a middle rung closer.
  9. Ryan Dempster RP $5 Probably gonna be replaced by Kerry Wood at some point.
    Total $108
    $72 left to fill 7 positions, or about $10 per.

Pierre and Delgado are in year #2, so if I’m gonna excercise options, I gotta do it now.

Which two to cut?

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Your’s doesn’t work like my friend’s but if it does, drop delgado. He’s 34 or 35 and will only slump more IMO. Look for a young guy who is doing well and in a good situation (i.e good players around him to help his numbers). No one comes to mind but then again you’ll have to do the searching to see if they’re available anyways.

If you can’t drop Delgado… it’s a crap shoot, blindfold yourself and randomly point at someone.

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[QUOTE=CharSFNiners;230591]If you can’t drop Delgado… it’s a crap shoot, blindfold yourself and randomly point at someone.[/QUOTE]

LOL, so you’re saying that I am overanalyzing?

I’m tempted to drop Delgado. Some dufus with a woody for CI’s w/ power will bid him up to $50, and I’ll be out my 1B depth.

4

Matters if you are going for the win this year. If so, you keep the overpriced consistent players. If not, you go with potential.

This is the question that kills me every year in my keeper league because I never know whether I want to win now or build for next year.

If rebuilding, I would drop Delgado and Pierre, depending on the scoring categories. If you have a bases category, then Pierre won’t be worth much. But he is a stud on the basepath. He may also be good for a trade, so Pierre would be the difficult decision. If you want to keep him, I would drop Dumpster.

If going for it, I would probably drop Pelfrey and maybe Martin. It would probably benefit you though to try to package two guys together (Martin and Pelfrey) for a stud that is far in his contract for a rebuilding team. Tough though b/c Pelfrey is highly thought of by the Mets.

Good luck on the choices, though. Let us know how it turns out.

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I’m trying to win this year. Havent won the league since 2000. Trophy gathering dust.

Pierre is a top tier OF in our scoring system (for runs + SB)

By “dump” I don’t mean trade. We haven’t had our draft yet cause a quarter of the guys in the league are CPA’s and are too busy prior to April 15th. We always start late.

6

I’m leaning towards Dumpster & Delgado. I wish Ryan hadn’t recorded 2 saves in his first week. It’s making the decision harder. A good closer is the best thing you can have on your roster besides the Cy Young winner.

Thanks for the advice guys. I get attached to players and wont let them go.

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[QUOTE=NinerAdvocate;230607]I’m leaning towards Dumpster & Delgado. I wish Ryan hadn’t recorded 2 saves in his first week. It’s making the decision harder. A good closer is the best thing you can have on your roster besides the Cy Young winner.

Thanks for the advice guys. I get attached to players and wont let them go.[/QUOTE]
Do you have a list of the available players??

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If you are trying to win, I wouldn’t drop Dumpster.

Closers are always tough to get. And with Lidge losing his job, Julio looking horrible, the Reds always having a screwy mess at closer, the Diamondbacks Valverde looking good for an inning then like crap the next outing, Nats not going to win 40 games, and Benitez throwing more walks than strikes, the pool of established closers will be VERY small.

Dumpster is garbage, but he is an established closer. I might eat crow, but moving Wood to closer is wishful thinking. He is shaky and has a better chance to be in the rotation with how bad the rotation is than in the closer spot. As for Delgado, the corner spot is fairly deep this year, so you might be ok. But he is your verified power hitter. Like CharSF said, complete crapshoot. You know you might get him at close to the price you have him.

Dumpster on the other hand should go for more than $5.

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But I need to drop 2 cakewalk…

:stressing:

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[QUOTE=Jimmyhat49er;230609]Do you have a list of the available players??[/QUOTE]

About 75% of them. Some people still havent made any cuts yet. I can still guess which positions will be thin.

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But I need to drop 2 cakewalk...

:stressing:

Are there many starting pitchers available? (i.e., will you be shooting yourself in the foot if you drop Pelfrey?)

There are good underrated pitchers out there, like Matt Belisle and Shawn Hill. Pelfrey will have hype, but he might not be the stud you need to win this year. Other SP’s that may put up the same numbers should go for $1.

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[QUOTE=cakewalk5;230620]Are there many starting pitchers available? (i.e., will you be shooting yourself in the foot if you drop Pelfrey?)

There are good underrated pitchers out there, like Matt Belisle and Shawn Hill. Pelfrey will have hype, but he might not be the stud you need to win this year. Other SP’s that may put up the same numbers should go for $1.[/QUOTE]

The top is really, really thin, even for a keeper league, but there are always $1 ptchers that end up being good. This is the first year I don’t have one as a holdover.

Question I’m asking myself: Is Mike Pelfrey really so much better than other 5th starters that I need to keep him?

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The top is really, really thin, even for a keeper league, but there are always $1 ptchers that end up being good. This is the first year I don't have one as a holdover.

Question I’m asking myself: Is Mike Pelfrey really so much better than other 5th starters that I need to keep him?

He could be good. Problem is, is he worth $8 as a fifth starter? If rebuilding, absolutely. But rookie pitchers in the NL typically don’t contribute anymore than other starters that are cheaper.

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BTW Dumpster is pitching right now. 2 K’s and a popout. Nonsave situation.

Even though I hate Dumpster. He contributes more this year at $5 than Pelfrey does at $8.

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So I kept dumpster and dumped Pelfrey. My overall draft strategy seemed to work fairly well too (dont wanna repeat it cause another poster is in my league). Here’s my post draft roster grid:

C - R. Martin
1B - A. Gonzalez
2B - M. Giles, C. Biggio
3B - R. Zimmerman, A. LaRoche (prospect)
SS - H. Ramirez, B. Hall
OF - A. Rowand, J. Pierre, W. Tavares, J. Lane, L. Scott
SP - C. Zambrano, J. Maine (!), C. James, S. Hill, M. Belisle, C. Vargas, W. Rodriguez, P. Martinez (DL), B. Arroyo
RP - T. Saito, R. Dempster, K. Wood (DL), R. Soriano

I’m weak at OF, with almost zero depth, although the starters, especially Rowand, are taking care of business. During week #1, I clobbered my H2H opponent by over 130 pts, and I’m currently 83 pts ahead of everyone, so a hot start. Will see if it holds up. The I-word could do me in, as I have so little depth in my hitting lineup. Best bet is to trade one of my career-year pitchers for a quality, dependable bat.

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[QUOTE=NinerAdvocate;236271]So I kept dumpster and dumped Pelfrey. My overall draft strategy seemed to work fairly well too (dont wanna repeat it cause another poster is in my league). Here’s my post draft roster grid:

C - R. Martin
1B - A. Gonzalez
2B - M. Giles, C. Biggio
3B - R. Zimmerman, A. LaRoche (prospect)
SS - H. Ramirez, B. Hall
OF - A. Rowand, J. Pierre, W. Tavares, J. Lane, L. Scott
SP - C. Zambrano, J. Maine (!), C. James, S. Hill, M. Belisle, C. Vargas, W. Rodriguez, P. Martinez (DL), B. Arroyo
RP - T. Saito, R. Dempster, K. Wood (DL), R. Soriano

I’m weak at OF, with almost zero depth, although the starters, especially Rowand, are taking care of business. During week #1, I clobbered my H2H opponent by over 130 pts, and I’m currently 83 pts ahead of everyone, so a hot start. Will see if it holds up. The I-word could do me in, as I have so little depth in my hitting lineup. Best bet is to trade one of my career-year pitchers for a quality, dependable bat.[/QUOTE]

You might want to look to pick up Owens P/Fla and or Capps P/Pitt to strengthen your bullpen, both should start getting more saves and be their team main closer by the allstar break.

I like your team overall, hopefully Gonzalez, Rowand and Martin will stay hot. Very strong starting pitching.

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[QUOTE=Jimmyhat49er;236281]You might want to look to pick up Owens P/Fla and or Capps P/Pitt to strengthen your bullpen, both should start getting more saves and be their team main closer by the allstar break.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the tip. Both players are taken. I think Owens was actually kept. And these guys are such Pirate homers, there’s no way any decent buc is available. The league commish has like half the team on his roster. It’s crazy.

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Thanks for the tip. Both players are taken. I think Owens was actually kept. And these guys are such Pirate homers, there's no way any decent buc is available. The league commish has like half the team on his roster. It's crazy.

Also look at Mike Gonzalez in Atl. Wickman is starting to implode a little.

I’m not sure Wood is worthwhile, but he is insurance to the Dumpster.

I woulod also try to deal Wandy. He started the same way last year, but he will become ineffective as time goes one with a high ERA.

19

Taken. It’s pretty safe to assume that in my league, all closers and possible successors are being stashed on someone’s roster. We go deep onto the real teams’ benches. I have J. Lane & 2 long term D/L pitchers on my roster (for cryin out loud).

This is the ONLY reason he is on my [reserve] roster. And his value is still questionable at that.

Shhh! You’re giving me away. :wink:

20

Is Bergmann available in your league? His stuff is looking amazing.

He may get one win this season, but I don’t see how anyone will even hit him this year. Maybe he’s only a roto gem, but I’m loving his production for being bottom of the barrel SP.