Your prior posts, excellent as they may be, were not in direct response to the comparison between us and UNC-W. Perhaps I should have been more specific and said āuse some better arguments as to why UNC-W is in better shape than usā Thought that was implied.
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You have made so many points you actually contradict yourself at this point. Hence you use of Net and Kenpom as examples of our failure then saying a team worse in them is far superior to us?
Which is it how can the Net/Kenpom be the judge but then a UNCW be far superior that is worse in one and basically equal in the other?
This would be a much better argument if we were equally undefeated in conference. We arenāt. They are doing what they need to in order to be the class of their league. We arent.
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I donāt really care about Net or Kenpom. Iāll take 15-5 & 9-0 in conference any day over our record. All I want is to compete for conference championships no matter what conference we are in. Weāre both in shitty conferences so our rankings by those systems are going to suffer. They are doing what we should be doing, which is being one of the top teams in their conference.
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Yes, but are they building pillars?
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Why are some very few people spending so much time and effort defending Sanchez or his results?
They are probably focusing more on basketball & not wasting time building pillars
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Iād prefer to win AND build pillars.
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I had a Columbian friend years ago who had an Aunt Pillar. She drove right into an ambulance.
Itās really not that hard.
Those rankings are good for a program constantly swimming in the mid 200ās. Those rankings are embarrassing for us who expect to be around 100. Just like 100 would be good for us but embarrassing to Kentucky, Kansas and Duke.
So to recap:
200ish ranking in YEAR 2 for a team used to the mid 200ās = OVER achieving
200ish ranking in YEAR 4 for a team with expectations of 100 = UNDER acieving
9-0 in Conference (1st place) in YEAR 2 = OVER achieving
4-3 in Conference (Tie for 7th place) in YEAR 4 = UNDER acieving
Common opponent Drexel
Beat Drexel = Win
Lose to Drexel = Loss
Roster talent:
Donāt have the time or patience to look it up but I dare say compare the recruiting rankings of each roster and I bet we have twice the talent.
Winning more with less talent in YEAR 2 = Winning
Losing as much as ever in YEAR 4 with more talent = Losing
Itās not even close.
Wilmington also lost to Southern Miss who got beat by UTEP (by 33) who we beat by 13 along with Rice so what the point with Drexel? One game on a schedule doesnāt make some team far superior unless you just try to cherry pick what fits your argument.
To add UNCW also has a win against Guilford a D3 school by only nine and Mt Olive a D2 school. So lets see if we replaced Wake and Arkansas with those two the record would most likely be 13-6 and if UNCW played Wake and Arkansas they would most likely be 13-7.
Once again how again is UNCW āsignificantly betterā? My whole point is great you can come up with things to show your point but I donāt think UNCW is actually really any better than we are.
Thirsty?
Reality is we arenāt better than UNCW and they might be better than we are. It sucks, but thatās the program in its most recent form. Many of us, me included, have a hard time accepting that reality and still think of us as better than ODU and places like UNCW but we really arenāt, nor have we been in a LONG time thats what the data shows. It sucks. Just sucks.
Fineā¦ You won me over.
Lock Sanchez up to a lifetime contract since itās all semantics whether or not UNC Wilmington is significantly better or just better than we are.
I am clearly full of sh!t and have no clue what Iām talking about. Sanchez is clearly exceeding expectations and may be one of the best coaches weāve ever had!
I hope he never leaves!
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This post would be spot on if it were made 10 years ago, but unfortunately we are currently on UNCWās level. At this point we are the literal definition of āa program swimming in the 200s.ā I think your expectations are a great medium term goal, but itās incredibly rare for teams to jump over 130 points in rpi/kenpom/any overall rankings in 1 year.
If I were AD Iād have an expectation of top 150 AND top 3 in conference this year or Iād fire Sanchez. Additionally, that wouldnāt win him any grace for the next year and heād have to match it or best it to keep his job.
Currently we are #216 in Kenpom. I know some of yāall donāt care about Kenpom, but itās indicative of all our blowout losses. Itās not just who you play. At this point if he doesnāt win out I want Sanchez gone.
Edit
Two things can simultaneously be true:
- We have been a consistent 200ish awful team and you canāt just expect us to wake up and make the top 100 in RPI the very next season because we did that consistently 15 years ago.
- The top 100 is where we belong and that should be a consistent goal for the mid future especially with moving to the AAC.
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Heās had four years. No one expected a one season jump. Heās had four years and failed miserably while showing no progress.
Also, UNCW and us are not peers. They are vastly superior. Theyāve been dancing three times since us. They are currently undefeated in their conference. RpI and non conference aside, they are doing the #1 most important thing a team should do in a mid major with one bid. Dominate your conference. We are 7th.
Except for a final 4 from before the birth of people in their 40s, they have been the better program.
Sanchez is doing nothing to change that.
And all of that can & needs to change. If we take this clusterf#$k up in the AAC weāre going to embarrass ourselves & lose the few fans that still exist. Changes need to be made to fix this or we need to move to the CAA or the Big South.
Everything you wrote is 100% fair but I vehemently disagree with using last year to reset the baseline for expectations for this year.
First of all, Sanchez sh!t the bed hard last yearā¦ Losing 9 in a row to close the season. Plusā¦ COVID was such an issue last year too. Last year should have nothing to do with measuring or lowering expectations for this year.
Expectations for Year 4 of Sanchez (or any competent coach) was to be in the low 100 range by now. Regardless of what happened last yearā¦this is year 4. And Iām certainly not willing to let his titanic failure last year reset that expectation for where we should be this year.
If thatās how it worksā¦ Every coach should tank every 3yrs so that they can show improvement & keep their job by having average years after that. Since at that point average is showing improvement.
āAND WHAT I DIDNāT LIKEā¦
The only thing that hit me wrong: Sanchez was vague. Very vague.
The coach wouldnāt offer a one-year plan, three-year plan, a five-year plan or a single goal of any type other than ālocking armsā with his players and getting better at each practice. It sounded a little too much like Alan Major - the last assistant at a high-profile university that tried (and failed) at the 49ersā head-coaching job.
I understand you donāt want to say youāre going to win an NCAA title at the opening newsconference. Thatād be ridiculous. Panthers owner Jerry Richardson proclaimed in the aftermath of getting his team in 1993 that Carolina would win a Super Bowl in 10 years, and that one haunted him for years.
But geez, tell people youāre going to compete for conference championships and NCAA bids. Or that you want to have a winning record. Or that you want 100 percent of your players to graduate. Or something. Give the 49ers faithful hope whenever you can ā because they have been casting about in the wilderness for a long, long time.ā
Scott Fowler on Sanchez March 28, 2018
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