I was curious tonight about some raw math in regards to Lutz. I think he’s a great man and been very good for the program but at times I think the on the court production is exaggerated. So his 9 seasons here, he is 168-112, which is roughly an avg of 18-12 every season. You compare that to a conference foe like Rick Majerus and its not even close. He is 422-147 at the D1 level for an avg of 21-7 (Marq, Ball St, Utah). I am just wondering from a simple statistical standpoint if Lutz is getting it done, getting too much credit, or maybe not enough credit? Should an avg of 18-12 get you another contract? I’m sort of in the camp that keeping a 18-12 coach is settling on safe and mediocre, but getting a good person. Isn’t that what Dubois will have to decide on?
some other coaches:
Gregg Marshal, Winthrop- 9yrs 194-83, avg 21-9
Mike Anderson UAB- 4yrs 98-41, avg 22-10
I was curious tonight about some raw math in regards to Lutz. I think he's a great man and been very good for the program but at times I think the on the court production is exaggerated. So his 9 seasons here, he is 168-112, which is roughly an avg of 18-12 every season. You compare that to a conference foe like Rick Majerus and its not even close. He is 422-147 at the D1 level for an avg of 21-7 (Marq, Ball St, Utah). I am just wondering from a simple statistical standpoint if Lutz is getting it done, getting too much credit, or maybe not enough credit? Should an avg of 18-12 get you another contract? I'm sort of in the camp that keeping a 18-12 coach is settling on safe and mediocre, but getting a good person. Isn't that what Dubois will have to decide on?
some other coaches:
Gregg Marshal, Winthrop- 9yrs 194-83, avg 21-9
Mike Anderson UAB- 4yrs 98-41, avg 22-10
Comparing Lutz to Majerus isn’t a valid comparison. We’ve never had a Keith Van Horn at Charlotte and Majerus is a tremendous coach. Lutz is good, he’s not tremendous.
Gregg Marshal? We’re back here again? Lutz has coached in twice the league Marshal ever did and played, and beat, far tougher opponents.
Mike Anderson - Fair comparison IMO and Anderson is a better coach IMO.
Bottom line, there are facts and then there are statistics. Does Lutz deserve an extension, I think he does. Should he get it? I’m firmly on the fence at this point with that one.
[QUOTE=MKNiner;281316]Comparing Lutz to Majerus isn’t a valid comparison. We’ve never had a Keith Van Horn at Charlotte and Majerus is a tremendous coach. Lutz is good, he’s not tremendous.
Gregg Marshal? We’re back here again? Lutz has coached in twice the league Marshal ever did and played, and beat, far tougher opponents.
Mike Anderson - Fair comparison IMO and Anderson is a better coach IMO.
Bottom line, there are facts and then there are statistics. Does Lutz deserve an extension, I think he does. Should he get it? I’m firmly on the fence at this point with that one.[/QUOTE]
Exactly the points I was thinking…the only thing I disagree with is the fact that I am not on the fence with Lutz, I think his extension has little to do with on the court coaching. I think he will get the extension, and deserves too.
After everyone has sobered up from their drunken rage, maybe they could start to make sensible arguments.
It is still too early for me to say without a doubt that Lutz needs an extension. Here are some reasons why he should stay 3-4 more years:
[LIST]
[]Great assistants, and good recruits
[]Young team that could be top 25 for the next 2 years
[]Big name scheduling
[]Devotion to fans[/LIST]
Those are all 4 things that have changed this year for the positive. However, the most important thing is winning and avoiding the traditional Lutz Ball style of jacking up 3s. We’ve won a few good games this year, but in perspective… Wake, Davidson and SIU are actually not that good. We haven’t really played any good teams yet and we have lost to a lot of mediocre and bad teams (Monmoth, Hofstra). Also, in the games we’ve lost we have defaulted to jacking up ill advised 3s… especially apparent in the MD game.
So basically, at this point I am leaning towards extension but we have to be able to pull out a winning record in conference season for it to happen. The main thing is being competitive. Losing by 30 to Xavier, URI, Dayton, UMass… etc… will get Lutz fired even if we win all the other games.
As of right now, there should not be a decision on the extension. Lutz hasn’t done enough to warrant an extension. And on the flip-side, he hasn’t tanked enough to rule one out. I don’t think a decision should be made until Lutz has coached well into conference play this season. I’m just not impressed with what he’s done since joining the A-10. This is a conference he should have been able to dominate in or at least remain in the top 3 year in and year out. Regardless of how it plays out, we should never be predicted as the 10th best team in the A-10. That alone doesn’t bode well for my confidence in Bobby.
As for the records, 18-12 is nice and I’m sure there are countless D1 programs out there that would take it in a heartbeat. But personally, I don’t want to settle for that. That’s what I’d like to see in a down year and not as the norm.
I hope Bobby turns it around but I’ve yet to see a reason thus far, as to why he should be given an extension. And the effect on recruiting isn’t the reason I’m looking for. IMO, he’ll need to really overachieve with this team in conference play or the Admin will have a hard time bringing him back in next season.
[QUOTE=jcl49er;281325]As of right now, there should not be a decision on the extension. Lutz hasn’t done enough to warrant an extension. [/QUOTE]
Exactly.
Lutz being a nice guy doesn’t mean crap to me. All I care about is does he get it done on the court. Does he elevate and develop the play of the players over their 4 year career. Does his players leave with not only 4 years of free education but a degree, and is the program free of violations.
Screw all the he is a great guy, he is devoted to the fans, and what he has done over his career here. Lutz is all of these and above, but so would any other coach that would head this team. It comes down to this like it does for everyone who works in the United States.
“What have you done for me lately” . 41-34 in the past three seasons. Not worth an extension in my mind.
[QUOTE=What the ?;281331]Whit,
Are you going to ask for Gary Williams’ head this year after he goes 18-12 which he has no chance to do?
I’d like to know who all of you think is going to come to Charlotte anyway. If someone goes 24-6 he’ll be gone the next year.[/QUOTE]
My personal money doesn’t go to Maryland so I don’t think I have a say in that. But I do at Charlotte. Gary Williams and Lutz are not even on the same playing field. If you know the Maryland program, Williams doesn’t and hasn’t landed many all americans at the school for many years but continues to develop his players to the next level. I don’t think Bobby does a good job at that. The year MD won the national title, only Steve Blake was an all american if I recall.
To compare Williams records vs Lutz record over the past year is unfair. Charlotte does not play the competition the Terps do year in and year out. They run different programs with a large difference in alumni and student support not to mention the money factor. Fact is, Gary has a national title and success in the tournament. Bobby has no success in the tourney once we get there. When you have these successes, sometimes fans are more forgiving.
Would it surprise me if Gary ended the season at .500 or lower and people call for his head. It wouldn’t, but I doubt it. If you get a chance, go to College Park next year when they play Charlotte. It is one of the best atmospheres in the country.
Trust me, Charlotte is an attractive program and filling this position would not be a problem. Only problem is the $$$ if you want the BIG name. We don’t need the big name. I think the guy that can back fill Bobby and we would not skip a beat is quite possibly the guy who sits next to him during the games and the guy who recruits his players. Moxley.
You are correct if a new guy arrives and goes 26-4 he will be gone. BUT SO WOULD LUTZ.
24-6 – even 22-8 would be so incredible I can’t even put words to it.
I will take my chances with having extreme success at Charlotte than looking at greener pastures.
It would a huge step forward from 16-19 wins per year and always hoping that next year (or the year after…or the year after that) will be a breakout year.
[QUOTE=49erWhit;281336]Only problem is the $$$ if you want the BIG name.[/QUOTE]
Here’s a stat:
Men’s Basketball Expenses (2007)
$3,154,106 Xavier Cincinnati, OH Cintas Center Sean Miller (since 2004)
…
$2,049,811 [B] La Salle [/B] Philadelphia, PA Tom Gola Arena John Giannini (since 2004)
$1,979,553 Charlotte Charlotte, NC Halton Arena Bobby Lutz (since 1998)
$1,907,189 Fordham Bronx, NY Rose Hill Gym Dereck Whittenburg (since 2003)
Xavier gets what they pay for. So would Charlotte.
Men’s Basketball Expenses (2007)
$3,154,106 Xavier Cincinnati, OH Cintas Center Sean Miller (since 2004)
…
$2,049,811 [B] La Salle [/B] Philadelphia, PA Tom Gola Arena John Giannini (since 2004)
$1,979,553 Charlotte Charlotte, NC Halton Arena Bobby Lutz (since 1998)
$1,907,189 Fordham Bronx, NY Rose Hill Gym Dereck Whittenburg (since 2003)
Xavier gets what they pay for. So would Charlotte.[/QUOTE]
Bobby Lutz and Hal Wissel are the only Charlotte coaches that have had a losing record in March.
To me, March is what college basketball is all about. That being said, I think there are a number of folks who are resigned to Lutz leaving if he does an excellent job. Does anyone think he wants to stay at Charlotte until he reitres?
[QUOTE=gamer;281349]One stat that may be of interest:
Bobby Lutz and Hal Wissel are the only Charlotte coaches that have had a losing record in March.
To me, March is what college basketball is all about. That being said, I think there are a number of folks who are resigned to Lutz leaving if he does an excellent job. Does anyone think he wants to stay at Charlotte until he reitres?[/QUOTE]
I think a major reason why he considered a step down to South Alabama was because he was on friendlier terms with the people running the show down there. He could have stayed at USA until retirement. Do I think he would prefer to stay at his alma mater until retirement? Absolutely.
Who would Charlotte hire if Lutz is gone? We already discussed that if the head coach is fired/leaves on bad terms - then so goes his staff. Dubois doesn’t want to overspend on a coach and he is probably going to low-ball candidates since football is on the table. I’d foresee crapshoot coaches that come, get fed up, and go (like our revolving door of asst’s). Maybe if we get someone that is happy to be underpaid and gets along with the people in the athletics department - then we might get stuck with him for a while. Sorry if I don’t share the optimism - but my opinion of the way the school handles things today is far worse than, say, when we hired Mullins.
[QUOTE=What the ?;281331]Whit,
Are you going to ask for Gary Williams’ head this year after he goes 18-12 which he has no chance to do?
I’d like to know who all of you think is going to come to Charlotte anyway. If someone goes 24-6 he’ll be gone the next year.[/QUOTE]
So we keep accepting 18-12 average because it keeps a coach here? Thats terrible logic. If the right job came Lutz would leave. Seems to be forgotten that he looked at Tennessee but didn’t get the job. I would love to see us go 24-6 and have a nice run in the tournament even if it meant looking for another coach. My belief is due to Lutz’s coaching style, barring we get a huge recruit, Lutz is the type coach that will get us to the NCAA tournament every few years with around 18-20 wins a year. But I don’t think we will see a magical run in the tournament with him. That doesn’t discount the good things he’s done here, just what I think we will see has long he is here.
Lutz’s struggles in March and the poor play the past two seasons are the reasons I am not in favor of an extension. However, because of the wins over Wake, Davidson, and SIU, barring a major collapse, as long as he finishes this season around .500 my guess is he gets the extension.
Another interesting stat, that I am curious about is our number of NCAA bids in last 10 years, where we stand on the list. List 1) non - BCS schools, List 2) non-football playing schools.