[quote=“itsbraille49, post:18, topic:30648”]Wake Forest is currently the 55th ranked team, per KenPom, Charlotte is 182nd. Pre-season inputs to the algorithm still playing a role in deciding rankings.
Wake’s best win is a road win at College of Charleston (103rd), and the Cougars just erased a 9-point halftime deficit to win comfortably at home against Davidson today. Charlotte’s best win as at Elon (120). Wake’s worst loss is to Northwestern (44th), ours, as flukey (hopefully) as it was, is to USC Upstate (243). KenPom projects an uptempo game and an 88-75 Demon Deacons win. The Niners have an 11% chance to win based on the Pythagorean expectation.
Rebounding will be an issue, it will be important to force a lot of misses from them and to shoot a high percentage ourselves. Wake is 92nd in Off. Rebounding %, and 120th in Def. Rebounding %. Wake is excellent at scoring inside, but considering our height dis-advantage we did a great job of limiting Oregon State scoring inside through double-teaming.
Both teams have been shooting great from 3-point range and from the free throw line. Charlotte hasn’t been great at getting to the line, until the Oregon State game but Wake has not let teams get to the line very often. Hopefully the trend from the Oregon State game continues.
Wake Forest’s offense has the 122nd ranked turnover rate, and Charlotte’s defense has the 50th ranked turnover rate. Charlotte’s offense has the 9th ranked turnover rate, and Wake’s Defense has the 287th Turnover rate.
The keys to Charlotte winning will be:
[ul][li]Capitalize on turnovers, force them relentlessly. Andrien White continuing to approach 100% will help this immensely.[/li]
[li]Have a hot night from 3-point range. Braxton has to get of his slump, he’s 5/25 from three the last four games. That can’t continue if we’re going to win.[/li]
[li]Get to the line and make free throws. We will need 40 minutes of 2nd-half Jon Davis to make this happen. [/li][/ul]
[ul][li]Quentin Jackson’s suffocating on the ball pressure will be needed. Oregon State’s point guard was never comfortable in the 2nd Half on Saturday.[/li][/ul][/quote]
So we lose