The 3 ball (...is a four letter word?)

49ers Basketball Forum 🏀
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Just a couple of random stats and observations about perhaps the most sore subject on this board:

Apparently, Duke made 407 three-pointers the last time they won a national championship. Last season, their worst in many years, they made 198, a low water mark under Coach K.

Xavier is shooting 40.7% (27th in the nation) from behind the arc this season as a team. In their last 3 games, they have scored 291 points (97 ppg), including 41 of 69 from behind the arc (59%), or 123 of the 291 points (42%). They did this against the #97 FG% defense (UVa), #165 (Auburn), and #71 (KState). Keep in mind, that these rankings include X’s games against these teams, so they were even better against other teams.

Teams on the top 3ptrs made per game list for this season include (3pt Ranking):

(5) Davidson
(6) Houston (11-2 overall)
(9) Butler (13-1, ranked)
(10)(tie) Virginia & Tennessee (TN is ranked, UVA has 10 wins)
(15) Vanderbilt (unbeaten, ranked)
(17) Duke (ranked, 1 loss)

Duke is averaging 9.3 makes per game. Davidson is averaging 10.4. Xavier is 49th, at 8.3 per game.

The 3ball is often called an equalizer, which is another way of calling it the refuge of the sisters of the poor. Does that list look like the sisters of the poor?

What I am seeing, aside from the Tarholes and maybe UCLA, is that the better teams, and a more likely attainable formula, is to put 4 athletic shooters on the court plus a big man to clean up misses, and if you can get a playmaking pg like lavender who can also shoot, more power to you.

I’d go so far as to say that we don’t have enough guys who can shoot the shot, or that will, and that our best team in recent memory (2001) had 4 excellent oustdie shooters on it (Hot Rod, Demon, Jobey & Diego).

Lots of other things make up a winning team, but I think the data suggests you need to be able to make about 8 or 9 three’s per game to be successful. That sounds about right. Think I might compare that stat with our wins and losses, since offense is where we struggle.

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As I stated in an earlier post.

We have got to make 3’s to win ballgames.

We do not have the inside game to do otherwise and we will rarely get a 6’10" guy worth building our offense around.

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*CAUTION FLAME RETARDENT SUITS REQUIRED FROM THIS POINT ON*

Just a couple of random stats and observations about perhaps the most sore subject on this board:

Apparently, Duke made 407 three-pointers the last time they won a national championship. Last season, their worst in many years, they made 198, a low water mark under Coach K.

Xavier is shooting 40.7% (27th in the nation) from behind the arc this season as a team. In their last 3 games, they have scored 291 points (97 ppg), including 41 of 69 from behind the arc (59%), or 123 of the 291 points (42%). They did this against the #97 FG% defense (UVa), #165 (Auburn), and #71 (KState). Keep in mind, that these rankings include X’s games against these teams, so they were even better against other teams.

Teams on the top 3ptrs made per game list for this season include (3pt Ranking):

(5) Davidson
(6) Houston (11-2 overall)
(9) Butler (13-1, ranked)
(10)(tie) Virginia & Tennessee (TN is ranked, UVA has 10 wins)
(15) Vanderbilt (unbeaten, ranked)
(17) Duke (ranked, 1 loss)

Duke is averaging 9.3 makes per game. Davidson is averaging 10.4. Xavier is 49th, at 8.3 per game.

The 3ball is often called an equalizer, which is another way of calling it the refuge of the sisters of the poor. Does that list look like the sisters of the poor?

What I am seeing, aside from the Tarholes and maybe UCLA, is that the better teams, and a more likely attainable formula, is to put 4 athletic shooters on the court plus a big man to clean up misses, and if you can get a playmaking pg like lavender who can also shoot, more power to you.

I’d go so far as to say that we don’t have enough guys who can shoot the shot, or that will, and that our best team in recent memory (2001) had 4 excellent oustdie shooters on it (Hot Rod, Demon, Jobey & Diego).

Lots of other things make up a winning team, but I think the data suggests you need to be able to make about 8 or 9 three’s per game to be successful. That sounds about right. Think I might compare that stat with our wins and losses, since offense is where we struggle.

The problem with the teams you names, is many (not all), have a PG/G that can drive and kick. Many of Duke’s three’s are off the drive and kick (namely during their last championship run). Think about it… Jay Williams the PG then could get to the rim when he wanted too, Paulus not so much.

Harris and Gerrity both can drive but don’t do it as much as I and many would like to see, that is either a coaching issue or personal problem.

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Good point. I’m not sure about Houston (havent really watched them), or UVa, but the other teams have a penetrate & kick PG.

It’s amazing that we have had as much success, with the shooters but without that type of PG, as we’ve had under Lutz. Makes you kinda wonder what we could do if we could develop Gerrity or Dijuan.

I just really love watching teams like Xavier play. They have Lavender (wizard) & Duncan (adequate big that can shoot), plus 5 or 6 guys all around 6’5 that can defend, run, shoot, bang a little, steal passes, and even block a few shots.

Imagine a Coley that was a lights out shooter, or if Dijuan was a playmaking passer, or if Dewhurst and Wilderness could drive or shoot with equal skill. Phil’s really not that much different than Duncan was a few years ago, and Phil has a decent stroke.

Would be fun to watch.

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I don’t think Coach K draws up his SG coming off a screen to jack up a 3 with 2 guys in his face at the end of games.

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[QUOTE=NinerAdvocate;281690]Good point. I’m not sure about Houston (havent really watched them), or UVa, but the other teams have a penetrate & kick PG.

It’s amazing that we have had as much success, with the shooters but without that type of PG, as we’ve had under Lutz. Makes you kinda wonder what we could do if we could develop Gerrity or Dijuan.

I just really love watching teams like Xavier play. They have Lavender (wizard) & Duncan (adequate big that can shoot), plus 5 or 6 guys all around 6’5 that can defend, run, shoot, bang a little, steal passes, and even block a few shots.

Imagine a Coley that was a lights out shooter, or if Dijuan was a playmaking passer, or if Dewhurst and [B]Wilderness could drive or shoot with equal skill[/B]. Phil’s really not that much different than Duncan was a few years ago, and Phil has a decent stroke.

Would be fun to watch.[/QUOTE]

Good analysis. The nice thing is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anjuan really develop that offensive technique. Likewise, you are talking about some young guys on our team. We have Dewhurst, Phil and Anjuan for 3 more years after this. With the right instruction and leading, this squad could be really good in the next two years. Not to mention three years from now when they are all seniors. :ohmy:

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[QUOTE=ChevEE;281693]Good analysis. The nice thing is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anjuan really develop that offensive technique. Likewise, you are talking about some young guys on our team. We have Dewhurst, Phil and Anjuan for 3 more years after this. With the right instruction and leading, this squad could be really good in the next two years. Not to mention three years from now when they are all seniors. :ohmy:[/QUOTE]

Wit the right instruction and leadership(my word change)…that’s the key! Can we develop these guys where their game is weak,i.e. Wilderness’ shot,or will they have the same weaknesses 3 years from now.Sure we have some holes,and I wouldn’t call us a top 20 team by any means now,but if our coaches can develop and round out our younger players games,I think we could be.If we could add a good #2 to go with a lineup of Coley,Mack Gaby(my opinion) Harris/Gerrity …I like that team a lot.With Dewhurst,hopefullu an improved Anderson and Phil off the bench.

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[QUOTE=lucky57;281696]Wit the right instruction and leadership(my word change)…that’s the key! [/QUOTE]
Oh certainly. It is assumed that “the right instruction” would have to be produced by “the right instructor.”

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*CAUTION FLAME RETARDENT SUITS REQUIRED FROM THIS POINT ON*

Just a couple of random stats and observations about perhaps the most sore subject on this board:

Apparently, Duke made 407 three-pointers the last time they won a national championship. Last season, their worst in many years, they made 198, a low water mark under Coach K.

The difference is that they don’t run plays strictly to get the three. They run plays to get open shots. How many of those 407 threes that year do you think were bad shots. I can promise you that we’ve taken more bad threes this year than they did that whole year. Our offense when the game gets close is to screen for Lee to get him open so he can shoot the ball whether he is open or not. It’s pretty damn predictable. Coach K will sit his players on their asses if they shoot bad shots. Bobby rewards it. Yes, the best teams make a high percentage of the 3 ball for a reason. They use the shot to it’s full potential and don’t force it.

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The difference is that most of those teams are taking open 3’s through good execution of their offensive sets. Where I have trouble with our team at times is when we throw up bad contested 3 after another. Plus, during the time we are doing this, we are totally abandoning the plays to get guys open inside. In past years, we have had guys so used to passing the ball around the perimeter looking for 3pt shots that they never developed into capable passers into the interior.

With the way we have played transition defense in previous years (this years defense has been drastically improved), jacking up contested 3’s should have been the last thing we did, but it did not stop us from doing so. It can destroy any kind of flow that you have with your offense and offensive rebounding also, because guys start standing around watching their teammates jack up 3’s and they stop moving around and become easily guardable.

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Good post -> I feel the last piece of the puzzle with this current group of Niners is a go to 3 pt / perimeter shooter (ala Diego, Jobey, etc) Seems all the other pieces are their. I thought Gerrity was going to be that guy but have’nt seen it as of yet.

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Our offense when the game gets close is to screen for Lee to get him open so he can shoot the ball whether he is open or not.

You forgot a play, the run the ball up to half court and pass to Lee so he can take a contested 3 on the wing with nobody for us under the basket. That one’s dynamite!

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You forgot a play, the run the ball up to half court and pass to Lee so he can take a contested 3 on the wing with nobody for us under the basket. That one's dynamite!

Oh yeah, my mistake. We do have two plays we run at the end to win games. Thanks for reminding me. I guess our offense is tough to guard.

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The problem with the teams you names, is many (not all), have a PG/G that can drive and kick. Many of Duke's three's are off the drive and kick (namely during their last championship run). Think about it... Jay Williams the PG then could get to the rim when he wanted too, Paulus not so much.

Harris and Gerrity both can drive but don’t do it as much as I and many would like to see, that is either a coaching issue or personal problem.

Nor do we have the inside-out game of a big drawing in the defenders to free up our outside players (also works). Even without these, if we had good passing and movement in the offense, we could stress opposing team’s defenses better. We have been patient sometimes this season, and often end up with a better shot (I think). I hope we can get our shooters to pass up the bad shots more often. That’s the key difference. I bet most here would think Lee was a great shooter if we could manufacture open looks for him in our offense, but he’s been forcing up a bunch of bad shots and it shows (34% from 3, 36% overall).

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The looks for lee late were good plays, but Lee was not hitting last night and therein lies one of my biggest complaints with Lutz (outside of the green light theory).

Rotation. We started winning when we put Mack and Lee on the bench. I think Lutz expects more from Mack than Mack can provide this year. Gerrity is not a rotation problem, as Moss pointed out. It is obvious Lutz thinks we are better with Harris on the floor right now, because unless Harris is in foul trouble, he’s on the floor.

But when we had Ian, Coley, Dew, Gaby and Wilderness on the floor, we rebounded better, attacked the basket and played MUCH better defense. I was not a real big Ian Andersen fan, I will eat my crow, he’s great coming off the bench. He plays hard, and usually plays smart. He isn’t d1 starting material (maybe he will be next year), but he is a great reserve. He deserved Lee’s minutes at the end of the game.

Gerrity played much better in the second half when he wasn’t playing with his back to the basket at half court listening to Lutz for 10-15 seconds every possession.

It really does bother me that, down 2, the answer was a 3. We could have and should have won that game, but our rotation is suspect. Bobby is great at pulling guys out (especially reserves) when they are playing hot.

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An interesting stat:

2006-07
3FGA/FGA = 47.6%

…and we noticed it. Oh boy, did we ever notice it.

This season:

295 3 pt attempts
740 FG attempts

Not bad, considering our top returnees were Ian, Phaler, and Goldwire (go-to guy)

Matches up closely to our opponents, as well:

260 3 pt attempts
725 FG attempts

Talk about the three ball after each and every game is probably justified - considering how bad we were last year. But even with Goldwire as our star, we’ve been around the Div 1 average in our shots taken behind the arc in 12 of the 13 games (Hofstra was an ugly exception).

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An interesting stat:

2006-07
3FG/FG = 47.6%

…and we noticed it. Oh boy, did we ever notice it.

Huh?:huh: Is this a typo, we shot 47 percent from 3 beyond the arch last year?

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[QUOTE=EE9er;281741]Huh?:huh: Is this a typo, we shot 47 percent from 3 beyond the arch last year?[/QUOTE]

It is a typo - good catch.

of all field goal attempts last year, 47 percent were beyond the arc.

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Ah, gotcha, good research, as usual! :smile:

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I'd go so far as to say that we don't have enough guys who can shoot the shot, or that will, and that our best team in recent memory (2001) had 4 excellent oustdie shooters on it (Hot Rod, Demon, Jobey & Diego).

It’s almost surreal at this point, to remember just how damn lethal that team was from the perimeter. I’m not huge fan of relying on the 3-ball but I don’t recall myself or anyone in Niner land having one bad thing to say about us jacking up so many back then. The primary issue I, and I’m guessing others, have now is that despite no longer having a slew of sharp shooters, Lutz hasn’t really changed his style of play. IMO, we have one legitimate 3-point shooter in Lee. You can make a case for Ian but not comparable to Demon, Jobey or Diego by any stretch.

I think that if Bobby had just ONE more legitimate bomber, it would totally change the landscape of our game. Lee would free up more since we’d keep teams honest on D. It would open up our interior game and allow those guys to face better matchups without as much doubleteaming. And it would give guys like Gerrity/Harris another viable option to kick out to when Lee is covered.

I just don’t think you can truly capitalize on the benefits of shooting a lot of 3’s unless you have at least 2 marksmen, particularly ones that move very well with and without the ball.