The only team that the Bobcats probably can’t beat with a healthy Jefferson in the Heat in the east in a series. Maybe the Bulls when Rose gets back but honestly I think his greatness is done. I think that automatically makes them a contender regardless because there are no great teams other than the heat in the east and who knows where Wade is next year with all their contracts up.
So who is your starting SF? Gilcrhest, some Rookie, Douglas-Roberts?
I would look at bringing Marrion or some cheap older option for a couple years because I do think he’s an improvement and would help you vs the Heat and ALSO so you can put Gilchrest on the bench/2nd team and wait on him. By that point in 2 years he’d be like 23 and if he’s not showing anything more than he has it would easily be time to cut ties or certainly not overpay him as his contract should be coming up depending on if they extend him this year. Sure beats just crossing your fingers and starting him the next 2 years IMO and seeing what happens. I think he’s an NBA player but probably more Demare Caroll and Scottie Pippen at least so far.
You are talking about picks likely from 19-24th. Look what the Charlotte has gotten in the lottery over the years, Morrison, Gilchrest, Byiombo, Wright, May, etc etc. The whole draft is a crapshoot really, you can’t even get the studs picking in the top 10 and you think you are going to get some stud a 19 opposed to 24? You’d be lucky to even get a guy that could even develop into a quality starter on a playoff team. There aren’t many Faried’s floating around at 20. Getting those players to hit are as much luck as anything.
FTR I’ve never heard anyone with a playoff team say they’d rather have a worse starter at a certain position and be worse and not have a homecourt advantage JUST so they can pick probably from 17-20 instead of 20-24ish. You get about the same kind of player that will be lucky to even stay in the league 5 years at this point in the draft. It’s a heck of a lot less defined as well and you can usually move around and get the players you want anyway in this range.
[quote=“StillJonesing, post:161, topic:27928”]The only team that the Bobcats probably can’t beat with a healthy Jefferson in the Heat in the east in a series. Maybe the Bulls when Rose gets back but honestly I think his greatness is done. I think that automatically makes them a contender regardless because there are no great teams other than the heat in the east and who knows where Wade is next year with all their contracts up.
So who is your starting SF? Gilcrhest, some Rookie, Douglas-Roberts?[/quote]
I don’t know enough about the FA status or even potential draft picks to give you a great list of viable candidates. I’ve heard Ariza and Afflalo both mentioned thus far as options. Last year at this time no one had Al Jefferson on the Bobcats radar.
I just know that if I’m the GM, I’m not thinking that Marion gets the team any closer to a title.
Marion does exactly what you’re saying Normmm. Might give you 5-10 more wins for the season which would bump you to the 5th spot in the East (this season), but it’s not exactly a move that puts you over the top.
Getting Marion is akin to keeping Gerald Wallace a few years ago, along with that core. It was enough for a low seed in the playoffs, but you were never getting much more over the hump, nor were you ever going to contend. If you’re not going to contend, no reason to hold the status quo of 8th place. You’ll remain mediocre in a small market due to the sub-par draft position and the inability to draw prime FA’s.
Since this is all about advanced stats… Marion was at 4.3 win shares this year, Kidd Gilchrist was at 3.1… Honestly, it isn’t even a contest between a 20 year old with massive potential for growth over a 36 year old (at more than twice the price) for a game difference.
On the same token, Gerald Henderson was 3.6 win shares this year, JR Smith was 3.7… If you are going to upgrade… upgrade.
The Detroit pick is top 8 protected which is where they are currently slated to pick. If another team leapfrogs them in the lottery that means the Hornets get the pick, correct?
[quote=“Hawthorne_49er, post:166, topic:27928”]The Detroit pick is top 8 protected which is where they are currently slated to pick. If another team leapfrogs them in the lottery that means the Hornets get the pick, correct?[/quote]yes.
There is a 17.6% chance the Hornets get their pick.
The Bobcats were only 5 games back of the 3rd seed this year and the 5th seed could very likely end up in the eastern conf finals as well. There is really only one great team in the East and Charlotte played them well without a healthy Jefferson.
Getting Marion is akin to keeping Gerald Wallace a few years ago, along with that core. It was enough for a low seed in the playoffs, but you were never getting much more over the hump, nor were you ever going to contend.
He just helped the 8 seed take the #1 seed in the NBA to 7 games. He helped a team with one All Star win a championship 3 years ago holding Lebron to 17ppg.
I’ve never said the guy was a put you over the top guy but for likely the vet minimum or 4 or 5 million he would certainly help.
Marion is going to get a contract over the vet minimum.
I like Marion as a role guy off the bench. I loved Marion 5 yrs ago. Its not 5 yrs ago anymore. The Hornets needs shooting at the 3 that can stretch the floor and help improve spacing. Marion isnt that guy. Marion was effective for Dallas because he could operate in the space created by Dirk and Ellis. I love Kemba and Al, but they arent gonna provide that for him. He’s a bad fit.
He won’t get paid 10 million next year. Probably more like 3 or 4.
I’m not a big fan of win shares. It was pretty obvious Gilchrest regressed in many ways this year individually even though his the team was a better team. It really wasn’t because of him. The bobcats team was actually 0.9 points better when he was OFF the court per 100 possessons than with him on it which is sad for a starter playing mostly beside your best players. The Mavs by contrast were 8.5 points better when Marrion was on the court per 100 possessions than off if you want to know how your true replacement players were. He was far and away a much bigger part of their success.
On the same token, Gerald Henderson was 3.6 win shares this year, JR Smith was 3.7.. If you are going to upgrade... upgrade.
…and it was 6.7 the year before when he was healthy. He looked healthy the last 2 months of this year as well.
[quote=“casstommy, post:169, topic:27928”]Marion is going to get a contract over the vet minimum.
I like Marion as a role guy off the bench. I loved Marion 5 yrs ago. Its not 5 yrs ago anymore. The Hornets needs shooting at the 3 that can stretch the floor and help improve spacing. Marion isnt that guy. Marion was effective for Dallas because he could operate in the space created by Dirk and Ellis. I love Kemba and Al, but they arent gonna provide that for him. He’s a bad fit.[/quote]
That’s why my realistic and reasonable $$ wish list included signing Hawes and trading for JR Smith.
C Jefferson
F Hawes
F Marrion
G JR Smith
G Kemba
Plenty of 3 point shooting on that hypothetical team, and with Jefferson you really want a streach 4 to draw out the other big and give him more room to work. WTF is Gilchrest shooting? He can’t throw it in the ocean nor can Henderson if you want really bad fits.
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On the same token, Gerald Henderson was 3.6 win shares this year, JR Smith was 3.7.. If you are going to upgrade... upgrade.
…and it was 6.7 the year before when he was healthy. He looked healthy the last 2 months of this year as well.[/quote]
Yea, we know, you’re only a big fan of the stats you feel support your stance. Not surprising.
The Bobcats were only 5 games back of the 3rd seed this year and the 5th seed could very likely end up in the eastern conf finals as well. There is really only one great team in the East and Charlotte played them well without a healthy Jefferson.
Getting Marion is akin to keeping Gerald Wallace a few years ago, along with that core. It was enough for a low seed in the playoffs, but you were never getting much more over the hump, nor were you ever going to contend.
He just helped the 8 seed take the #1 seed in the NBA to 7 games. He helped a team with one All Star win a championship 3 years ago holding Lebron to 17ppg.
I’ve never said the guy was a put you over the top guy but for likely the vet minimum or 4 or 5 million he would certainly help.[/quote]
See, here’s your issue: You’re looking at the short term, not the long term implications of picking up Marion, which is what Normmm and S are saying. At BEST, Marion gets you to the 3rd seed in a deplorably bad Eastern Conference. Who knows if the East will be that bad next season? In a normal season, the Bobcats would have been duking it out for the 8th spot and likely missing it. So we’ll take the middle of the road which would be the 6th or 7th seed. Now you’re in the same spot you were this season, getting a draft pick in the 18-24 range, paying Marion more than you would like to, and never getting talent through the draft to take his place when he retires after 2 or 3 years. It’s not a sustainable model.
[quote=“StillJonesing, post:171, topic:27928”][quote=“casstommy, post:169, topic:27928”]Marion is going to get a contract over the vet minimum.
I like Marion as a role guy off the bench. I loved Marion 5 yrs ago. Its not 5 yrs ago anymore. The Hornets needs shooting at the 3 that can stretch the floor and help improve spacing. Marion isnt that guy. Marion was effective for Dallas because he could operate in the space created by Dirk and Ellis. I love Kemba and Al, but they arent gonna provide that for him. He’s a bad fit.[/quote]
That’s why my realistic and reasonable $$ wish list included signing Hawes and trading for JR Smith.
C Jefferson
F Hawes
F Marrion
G JR Smith
G Kemba
Plenty of 3 point shooting on that hypothetical team, and with Jefferson you really want a streach 4 to draw out the other big and give him more room to work. WTF is Gilchrest shooting? He can’t throw it in the ocean nor can Henderson if you want really bad fits.[/quote]
Youve just created one of the worst defensive starting lineups in the NBA. Congrats on spending your all your cap space on another first round exit
So in other words you’d rather just be what? The 9/10/11 teams in the east? That’s an even worse place to be. Losing records no excitment and still crappy draft picks. Who the holy hell do you think you are going to get at 12-16th picks that’s really going to change the team more than 17-24. Yeah maybe you get completely lucky but there are so many bust around the middle and the with the draft it’s all a huge gamble. Hell there are bust in the top 5 picks and Charlotte should know as much about that as anyone. You got a team that with a little working could threaten the Heat or most anyone in the playoffs. Don’t get them any help and wait around and hope to get lucky a couple more years in the middle of the draft and watch Jefferson and Kemba leave if you want.
[quote=“casstommy, post:175, topic:27928”][quote=“StillJonesing, post:171, topic:27928”][quote=“casstommy, post:169, topic:27928”]Marion is going to get a contract over the vet minimum.
I like Marion as a role guy off the bench. I loved Marion 5 yrs ago. Its not 5 yrs ago anymore. The Hornets needs shooting at the 3 that can stretch the floor and help improve spacing. Marion isnt that guy. Marion was effective for Dallas because he could operate in the space created by Dirk and Ellis. I love Kemba and Al, but they arent gonna provide that for him. He’s a bad fit.[/quote]
That’s why my realistic and reasonable $$ wish list included signing Hawes and trading for JR Smith.
C Jefferson
F Hawes
F Marrion
G JR Smith
G Kemba
Plenty of 3 point shooting on that hypothetical team, and with Jefferson you really want a streach 4 to draw out the other big and give him more room to work. WTF is Gilchrest shooting? He can’t throw it in the ocean nor can Henderson if you want really bad fits.[/quote]
Youve just created one of the worst defensive starting lineups in the NBA. Congrats on spending your all your cap space on another first round exit[/quote]
Hawes/Marrion/JR Smith are overall upgrades to McRoberts/Gilchrest/Henderson are they not. It think most everyone seems to agree with that. ESPN projects Marrion to sign for 2 years 5.4 million next year and Hawes 3 years 7.4 million. That’s only 17.5 million for 3 starters. You are already paying 14 million for those other 3 that could become the core of your 2nd unit if you like them that much. They are really your over pay.
If you can get Ariza, Deng, etc to Charlotte for less than 7 million a year then by all means I say take one of them over Marrion but I really don’t think you will.
So in other words you’d rather just be what? The 9/10/11 teams in the east? That’s an even worse place to be. Losing records no excitment and still crappy draft picks. Who the holy hell do you think you are going to get at 12-16th picks that’s really going to change the team more than 17-24. Yeah maybe you get completely lucky but there are so many bust around the middle and the with the draft it’s all a huge gamble. Hell there are bust in the top 5 picks and Charlotte should know as much about that as anyone. You got a team that with a little working could threaten the Heat or most anyone in the playoffs. Don’t get them any help and wait around and hope to get lucky a couple more years in the middle of the draft and watch Jefferson and Kemba leave if you want.[/quote]
No, I’d rather get in to the lottery as a team with a ~15% chance at the #1 pick, slotted by my record I may be the 12th worst team, but with the right chances I have a pretty good shot at getting into the top 10. Remember, the slotting for the lottery and your chances is based off record. So, for instance with the east this year, you may have been the 10th place eastern conf team, but there is only 2 teams in the western conf worse than you. So now, you’re not picking 12-16, you’re picking 8th or 9th, with the chance to jump. I’m advocating being patient and doing it similar to how OKC has worked their roster. Those picks matter, whether it does for talent or potential trades, it matters.
Cool, enjoy pissing away Charlotte’s first potiental playoff win ever and watching Kemba and Jefferson walk after a few years of no playoffs or no chance to advance and starting back over just so you can maybe can get a Mouhamad Sene, Jeremy Lamb, or Steven Adams at a 10-12 pick like OKC drafted :
Those guys are the most overrated overhyped lucky “geniuses” in the NBA. For every Ibaka you luck into a 24th you got 2 or 3 Jeremy Lamb’s in the middle of the draft on their hands, that you traded James friggen Harden away no less to get. Those lucky dumbasses blew up a potiental dynasty for “cap” flexability and to keep Kendrick Perkin’s at 8 million or whatever. That’s your model.
Let’s be honest too, had they won the draft and had the #1 pick they would have picked Oden like everyone else over Durant and would have been a pile of $hit right now. That’s how much of a gamble and luck the draft really is.
[quote=“StillJonesing, post:177, topic:27928”][quote=“casstommy, post:175, topic:27928”][quote=“StillJonesing, post:171, topic:27928”][quote=“casstommy, post:169, topic:27928”]Marion is going to get a contract over the vet minimum.
I like Marion as a role guy off the bench. I loved Marion 5 yrs ago. Its not 5 yrs ago anymore. The Hornets needs shooting at the 3 that can stretch the floor and help improve spacing. Marion isnt that guy. Marion was effective for Dallas because he could operate in the space created by Dirk and Ellis. I love Kemba and Al, but they arent gonna provide that for him. He’s a bad fit.[/quote]
That’s why my realistic and reasonable $$ wish list included signing Hawes and trading for JR Smith.
C Jefferson
F Hawes
F Marrion
G JR Smith
G Kemba
Plenty of 3 point shooting on that hypothetical team, and with Jefferson you really want a streach 4 to draw out the other big and give him more room to work. WTF is Gilchrest shooting? He can’t throw it in the ocean nor can Henderson if you want really bad fits.[/quote]
Youve just created one of the worst defensive starting lineups in the NBA. Congrats on spending your all your cap space on another first round exit[/quote]
Hawes/Marrion/JR Smith are overall upgrades to McRoberts/Gilchrest/Henderson are they not. It think most everyone seems to agree with that.[/quote]
Hawes and JR Smith are terrible on the defensive end. To bring in two guys who are the antithesis of identity that Clifford creates teams around seems like a stupid move to me.
