Colorado Buffaloes Game 12/25 @ Diamond Head Classic


#61

I’ve never bought in to the “losing 40%” argument…bear with me.

A team is gonna play 40min every game with 5 players on the court at all times. They will typically score 60-70 points per game…based on offensive and defensive coaching philosophies that could be more 50-60 or 70 -80.

Right now…we are averaging 58 pts per game and JD is averaging 20 of that. If he got hurt tomorrow and didn’t play the next game…we wouldn’t just automatically drop to 38 points per game. Another player would play his 37min and produce SOMETHING. Plus…the other players would score more too without JD there. Obviously, there is a talent drop on THIS team so maybe we fall to 50 points per game…but we still don’t lose all 40% forever because he’s gone…even if it happened this year.

Next years team will have more depth so the returners will be more effective next year.
Next year’s team will have 4 Sophomores that gained a ton of real playing time experience and will be more effective next year.
Next year’s team will have more pure outside shooting threats that will score more 3 pointers than this team currently does
Next year’s team with better shooting will spread the floor more to allow more interior cuts and scoring next year
Next year’s team will be longer and more athletic and create more turnovers to lead to more easy transition baskets next year
Next year’s depth will allow us to play even more aggressive defense leading to more turnovers as well

So…losing JD will be more than outweighed by the dynamic that the addition of 7 talented new players will bring.

My opinion is that this year’s team with JD will average just under 60 pts per game…next year’s team will average maybe 10 points MORE per game and that’s without JD. We will not only replace his 40%…but we’ll gain in points per game because of the team play with the additional skill sets brought in by the new players.

Again…it’s all speculation and I get that…but the skillset of the recruits coming in is real and there are a bunch of them coming in. It will be tough early on until they gel…but by the end of the year next year they will be dangerous in CUSA.


#62

Strictly looking at it mathematically, Jon shoots 42% the team as a whole shoots 39.4% with Jon’s shots removed so hypothetically if those shots were redistributed to the other players we would make 2.5 less shots per 100 attempts or just a little over a shot per game.


#63

I think what I see happening any year we have a recruiting class we are excited about is there are some of us who take that excitement to mean more than it does. It is easy for us to be excited with the 72nd best class in the country, but that does not equate to all the glowing expectations being stated in this thread.

Next years class, according to 247sports, has the 6th, 12th, 43rd, and 45th best players Charlotte has recruited since 2000 or so. And yet, none of these players are expected to be anything special as freshman. They will be doing their best to just be a solid part of the rotation. As for the transfers and Vasic, again, no world beaters there. They are CUSA caliber players if you use their history.

All together, it’s fair to say another couple recruiting classes like this and we will be competing for the top spots in CUSA, but saying we’ll be as good as you think next season is based on hope, not real data like previous stats, recruiting rankings, etc.

It’s good to have hope, but stop stating your arguments on our 3-pt shooting, depth, and experience as facts.


#64

Uhhhhh…

We have 7 scholarship players total this year…we have 7 new ones coming next year…depending on how many leave…we will still have 12+. 12 is MUCH greater than 7. That’s depth = FACT

Several kids that are coming are 3 point shooters (the line is the same distance in HS and college) = FACT

The current Freshman players that play all year this year are gaining a year’s worth of actual and meaningful D1 experience = FACT

Stop telling me to stop stating my arguments are facts when they are in fact facts.


#65

College and high school 3 point lines are the same distance? How can a fact be wrong if that’s in fact what has happened here?

We have hyped up a lot of new players prior to their first year here. When is the last time and how often do our freshman avg more than 10 ppg? Points aren’t anything but we need these in coming freshman to score a lot of we have any chance to competing in cusa.


#66

Preach on TRL


#67

I don’t think we will be world beaters, but no reason we cant recruit the Leemires right now. He made a difference on a great team in a good conference. Also with transfers, look at Plavich, Mayfield, Alexander as examples that came here looking for new surroundings, outside the major conferences, and had great success. I will not fault our future guys because of my fear from past recent teams. We are on the rise. Good things to come.


#68

I think JD may or may not have the Lebron effect on this team. Players may not be growing to their full potential with him on the floor. I could also be completely wrong, just a thought.


#69

I was thinking the same basic thing. A number of years ago we lost a person from our team at work who was the last guy you wanted to lose. My manager said it would be okay, because when you cut down the tallest tree the others get more light and grow better. It turned out he was right, we did not miss the guy as much as I thought we would. I will miss JD a lot, because he is fun to watch, but the team may be okay.

I think @TRLeader makes some good points above. Only time will tell if he is right, but I like where his head is. I also think it is much, much easier to move from #13 in C-USA to #5, than it is to go from 5 to 3. All we have to do is be average in a pretty weak league and we are around #7, and I believe our coaching staff and recruits are better than C-USA average. Finishing in the top half of the middle third of the conference–say 5-7–seems doable to me.


#70

35-0 baby


#71

clt says JD should have red shirted this year


#72

I’ve been thinking this too. The fans and the players do a lot of JD watching.


#73

I’m not sure you guys are watching the same team as I am. From the beginning of the season till now, JD’s game has gone through a HUGE change. It is glaringly obvious to me how much he has bought into Sanchez’s system and is looking to distribute as much as possible, at least until the shot clock winds down. He passes up threes constantly now if it’s early in the shot clock and drives to the basket only if the D provides a lane. One of my biggest compliments to him is how many shots and points he’s agreed to pass up on this season for the growth of our young guys. He’s no longer forcing the same stuff he was allowed to force under Price. Anyone saying we may be better off without him is really just looking to make the devils advocate argument but not watching what’s happened on the floor over the course of the season.


#74

I fixed some of those facts above for you. And if you’re wondering, there is a reason the few supportive replies to you are saying “I hope you’re right, TRL”, while most are dismissing them as hype we’ve seen too many times before. Will we be better? We should be, but you’re saying we will be top half in CUSA, and that’s just green tinted speculation.


#75

None of us know how well we will play next game much less next season. I believe that some of you are more optimistic than some of us others. I do hope that you do not go the opposite way on your optimism if we are not in the top half of the league next season.

I think Sanchez is the best coach we have had in some time on just my limited time watching him coach. The dude is clearly the man in charge of this team. He gets after the players and the officials. However, he seems to know what the players respond to as well. This team is much better than they were in game one and I expect them to keep getting better. Younger may have the biggest growth of anyone, but Mangum looks like he has a high ceiling as well. Martin also looks like a good player, but since he is already strong I am not sure that we will notice as much growth from him. I may be wrong though. Robb will be a good defender and his athleticism will get him minutes. I think he will be a 15 - 20 minute guy from the bench though.


#76

AT least we won’t be worse.


#77

Not mine. I think TRL IS right.


#78

I think we’re finally at a point where we’ll trend towards “better each year”.
Next year we’ll have much more players experienced with Ron’s style.
We have great players coming in, but they will still be freshmen and
have to learn and adjust…but we will be more athletic.
I think Shepard will surprise alot of people as to how good he will be.


#79

We will have the guy that is redshirting this year as a freshman that is suppose to be a good shooter which we do not have this year.

I think Younger will improve more than others over the summer. He seems to have a high ceiling.

Freshman will be wait and see, but if we can get two that can play some meaningful minutes we will be ahead of this year


#80

See that TCU’s game scheduled for today vs D-II Hawaii Pacific cancelled following the death of an HPU player on Wednesday