I’ve never bought in to the “losing 40%” argument…bear with me.
A team is gonna play 40min every game with 5 players on the court at all times. They will typically score 60-70 points per game…based on offensive and defensive coaching philosophies that could be more 50-60 or 70 -80.
Right now…we are averaging 58 pts per game and JD is averaging 20 of that. If he got hurt tomorrow and didn’t play the next game…we wouldn’t just automatically drop to 38 points per game. Another player would play his 37min and produce SOMETHING. Plus…the other players would score more too without JD there. Obviously, there is a talent drop on THIS team so maybe we fall to 50 points per game…but we still don’t lose all 40% forever because he’s gone…even if it happened this year.
Next years team will have more depth so the returners will be more effective next year.
Next year’s team will have 4 Sophomores that gained a ton of real playing time experience and will be more effective next year.
Next year’s team will have more pure outside shooting threats that will score more 3 pointers than this team currently does
Next year’s team with better shooting will spread the floor more to allow more interior cuts and scoring next year
Next year’s team will be longer and more athletic and create more turnovers to lead to more easy transition baskets next year
Next year’s depth will allow us to play even more aggressive defense leading to more turnovers as well
So…losing JD will be more than outweighed by the dynamic that the addition of 7 talented new players will bring.
My opinion is that this year’s team with JD will average just under 60 pts per game…next year’s team will average maybe 10 points MORE per game and that’s without JD. We will not only replace his 40%…but we’ll gain in points per game because of the team play with the additional skill sets brought in by the new players.
Again…it’s all speculation and I get that…but the skillset of the recruits coming in is real and there are a bunch of them coming in. It will be tough early on until they gel…but by the end of the year next year they will be dangerous in CUSA.