Awesome idea but man it pisses me off so much. Those cars should be restored not have their souls ripped out.
If itās a total wreck and no motor then sure but Iāve seen too many of these where they take out a working motor and replace it and make an EV.
And if Niners hoops could land an elite HOF caliber HC and land a half dozen four star recruits, we could compete for a championship. But some things just arenāt realistic.
GM and Ford are great at PR. Their media campaigns and product unveils are fantastic. But watch what they do, not what they say. The Lightning is an impressive beast, as is the Mach-E, but Ford is not taking production seriously. Manufacturing EVās is vastly different from making ICE vehicles, and no legacy company is building out the necessary capabilities to come even remotely close to the production numbers Tesla is and will be cranking out. Tesla is increasing production at an ever increasing rate from their current factories, plus they have the ginormous gigafactories in Berlin and Austin currently ramping up.
IF any legacy company could catch them (very big IF) it would be VW. Volkswagen is by far the most capable competitor to Tesla, but thatās like saying out of me, a quadrapeligic, a toddler, and a box turtle, Iām the most capable competitor to Lebron James in a game of one on one.
Again, try and ignore the glossy PR blitzes. Instead look at what plants are being built (dedicated EV-only plants), look at production numbers. None of these legacy OEMās are actually taking electrification seriously.
Ford has lots FULL of the EV trucks. Gill drive me by last April. I mean thousands of them. All just waiting on chips is what they said. I donāt think they have a production issue. I think their issue is they produce in a LARGE scale and they are just having issues getting the materials needed to keep up with their production speed.
Yes. They have every intention of churning these things out in numbers that will make Tesla jealous. They have the EVs ready to go, but for the chips. And every single one of the popular auto review channels absolutely loved the Lightning. Itās a license to print money if they can figure out the chip supply issue.
VW is also ready to bury Teslaās production. GM is not far behind, and Toyota is going to end up being the first major manufacturer to market with a solid state battery, and when they do, they are going to hit like a tidal wave. The combination of their production capacity, quality, and the impact of SSBs to the buying decision is going to be too much for Tesla to withstand. Thatās the point where I think Tesla likely sells or closes their auto division if they havenāt already, and become a software self driving company instead.
This will be fun to keep track of. This thread isnāt going anywhere, so it will be fun and easy to update the race and ākeep scoreā on here. I am a fan of all evās, and I absolutely love my ID.4, but I just donāt see how anyone catches Tesla, who has a monstrous head start and is just getting faster, on production. I hope all these companies sell millions. Letās go!
clt says RIVN!
Reuters: Solid-state EV batteries could cut carbon emissions further, says climate group.
I believe SSBs are the tech breakthrough that will make EVs mass market viable. However, the manufacturing costs have to come down first for that to happen.
Question for you NAā¦ What year do you honestly think one of the legacy OEMās will overtake Tesla as the largest seller of EVās? I ask this because Iāve been following Tesla a really long time, since about 2011 or so, and Iāve been hearing about āTesla killersā for over a decade now. The funny thing is, Teslaās demise is always two or three years away. Itās like that scene in Oh Brother where everything is two weeks away. 2016 will be the year, ok maybe not but definitely 2018! Ok for real this time, 2020! No, wait, I meant 2022! The Taycan, Etron, I-Pace, and a whole slew of others over the years were sure things according to the media to dethrone Tesla. But the can kept getting kicked down the road, goalposts moved, and Teslaās demise is STILL ācoming soon!ā
So give me a hard set date and letās stick with it. No more kicking the can down the road. Iām genuinely curious as to when you think this takeover will happen.
And btw, Tesla is still the leader in BEV sales. That headline about BYD is misleading, as they were counting plug-in hybrids, which are not fully electric. Having said all this, I think thereās a real shot that a Chinese company overtakes Tesla in total BEV sales, since China is actually taking electrification seriously. But the American and European companies have zero shot.
I think the challenge is just volume. Yeah the American makes and all other legacy builders are in a more difficult place because they are trying to balance the EV production with ICE, but when the switch flips Tesla just wonāt be able to keep up. Ford is a small maker and did nearly 2 mil units last year. Gm did almost 7 mil. Toyota did 10 mil! Tesla has yet to break 1 mil in production. Once these companies are sold the customers are there and ramp ev production itās going to drive costs down and production will go at a pace boutique makers canāt keep up with.
I think you are right the legacy makers have been tepid to go all in on EVs because they are looking at their bottom line and balancing production, but when the switch flips itās going to be big. That isnāt to say Tesla goes away, they just wonāt have the facilities to match the volume once the legacy builders retool all their lines. Tesla will be the company they are - pushing the tech envelope small maker vs trying to be gm or Toyota.
Seriously good answer by NWA. I agree with all of it. (I also weep a bit in my heart for the hardcore petrol heads he represents - I hope they never fully disappear).
But I will try to answer your question as best I can:
I donāt know for sure, but again, I am going to tie it to the widespread commercial availability of SSBs in production BEVs at āaffordableā prices. I think we are still a long way off from sticker prices of any BEV equalling a similarly equipped ICE vehicle, BUT, I think the paradigm shift is going to be to full cost of ownership, and thatās a more complicated discussion that is going to require a different sales pitch. Letās see if the ad companies can distill it down to a few soundbytesā¦ They eventually will, and the economies of scale along with continued advances will eventually shrink the ICE/BEV gap to where that sticker price vs true cost of ownership comparison is much easier to visualize.
My best guess? 2030. I think itāll be a 5 year process which starts ramping up in 2025. But again, that is based on my limited understanding of the progress of SSBs. I believe Toyota is going to be the first large scale manufacturer offering them, though companies like that Vietnamese Vinfast make are said to be offering them as soon as next year (thatās one I am way more skeptical of. I think Toyota is honestly targeting 2025, assuming no more crazy global supply chain crises).
Petrol heads probably have two generations left. After that probably gets sidelined as a hobby for all but the rich. Just wonāt be an affordable hobby when you can buy a car a tweak software and interchangeable body panels instead of learning how to wrench a car and affording the parts. As it is trying to find people that can work on a carburetor is extremely difficult today, itās going to be that but multiplied.
The EV becoming the dominate model is going to wreck the market place so many ways, from self driving to gas stations and restaurants to hobbies. Going to be fascinating to watch. Luckily Iāll be dead by the time petrol is basically gone.
Iāve actually read reports about cities asking people not to charge vehicles during peak hours. Sounds like a problem to me.
Two questions:
1- is that true?
2- if so, what happens in years when the majority are charging vehicle?
Sounds like it is a potential problem. Maybe we need more homes and businesses getting solar panels and decreasing demand. Houses in my neighborhood are starting to get those solar panel shingles. Wondering what kind of investment that takes and how efficient they are.
I have a friend that sells solar. I was building 4+ yrs ago and asked him about it as my house is IDEAL for panels. He said itās at least a 20 year payout.
Guess it depends on your situation and how long you intend to stay. Selling point if you sell I suppose.
I have an ideal home, unfortunately Iām looking at moving in just two years. The investment needs to come down, but Iāll do it on my next house if the incentives are there.
